Sometimes we can be our own worst enemies. I ranted all week long on my FNTSY Network Radio Show about how the Giants would win last Sunday against the Ravens following the same script of their last few seasons. With the team on the brink yet again, they did win a home game where they were clear underdogs to save their season. But did I buy share of Eli Manning and Odell Beckham? No! Instead I held myself to the numbers too rigidly and didn’t trust my gut enough. This happens to us all and is a reminder that a balance between the statistical analysis and the eye test is the true path to fantasy enlightenment.
Here are the top 20 salaried TE’s on FanDuel ranked with RPVPD for Sunday’s Main Contest:
Player | FPPG | Raw RPV | Salary | Pts per $ | RPV Per Dollar |
12.3 | 0.339 | 5800 | $472 | 0.299 | |
18 | 0.960 | 8500 | $472 | 0.298 | |
12.7 | 0.383 | 6000 | $472 | 0.298 | |
11.3 | 0.230 | 5800 | $513 | 0.237 | |
10.4 | 0.132 | 5400 | $519 | 0.229 | |
10.3 | 0.121 | 5900 | $573 | 0.149 | |
12 | 0.306 | 7300 | $608 | 0.096 | |
9 | -0.020 | 5600 | $622 | 0.076 | |
9.9 | 0.078 | 6300 | $636 | 0.055 | |
8 | -0.129 | 5200 | $650 | 0.034 | |
10.1 | 0.100 | 6700 | $663 | 0.014 | |
7.8 | -0.151 | 5300 | $679 | -0.010 | |
7.3 | -0.205 | 5200 | $712 | -0.058 | |
7.5 | -0.183 | 5500 | $733 | -0.090 | |
7 | -0.238 | 5400 | $771 | -0.146 | |
7 | -0.238 | 5700 | $814 | -0.210 | |
5.7 | -0.379 | 4800 | $842 | -0.251 | |
5.8 | -0.369 | 5100 | $879 | -0.306 | |
5.6 | -0.390 | 5100 | $911 | -0.353 | |
6 | -0.347 | 5500 | $917 | -0.362 |
The TE position is a mess right now, littered with injuries and question marks. To be fair, I’ve adjusted Rob Gronkowski’s average points based on the fact he was so limited in his first two games. Ironically, his teammate Martellus Bennett still edges him out in terms of Relative Position Value per Dollar. Unfortunately, an ankle has limited Bennett in practice this week. It still bears noting that Bennett will continue to receive red zone looks even with Gronk back up to speed as long as he’s on the field Sunday afternoon.
Tyler Eifert looks like he might finally make his 2016 debut, but it would be foolish to use him right out of the gate in DFS. This is especially true because Eifert was so touchdown dependent last season. The real “best” option is Hunter Henry, who despite the fact Antonio Gates is back in action, has continued to see consistent red zone looks and overall targets. In fact, if you watch the film, he seems to be developing a better rapport with Philp Rivers than any other receiver since Keenan Allen went on IR. Henry finds his was into the Black Book LU this week!
Luckily the “negative” RPVPD group in Week 7 aren’t attractive options save two: Jesse James has had his moments for the Steelers this year and one can argue that with Landry Jones under center may benefit from a scaled back passing game. However, the argument is stronger that Landry Jones will be unable to move the ball efficiently against the Patriots and James is far too risky. Zach Ertz was an offseason fantasy darling, but this week against the Vikings he will again be an afterthought in daily fantasy. Neither is a good return on investment to begin with.
BLACK BOOK LINEUP WEEK 7
QB Matt Ryan ATL $8.7K
You can make a strong case for Matt Ryan to be MVP over the first 6 weeks of the season. He leads the league in passing yards and has a nice matchup at home against the Chargers’ 24th ranked pass defense.
RB Jacquizz Rodgers TB $5.6K, Mike Gillislee BUF $5.3K
This is a week where I’m 100% fading the top of the RB board. Both Rodgers and Gillislee will see the bulk of the carries this weekend in the stead of their teams’ true starting backs. Gillislee went 6/60 when McCoy went down and Rodgers 30 carries in Week 5 prove TB is not afraid to hand him a full workload.
WR Julio Jones ATL $9.2K, A.J. Green CIN $8.5K, Mike Evans TB $8K
Julio Jones is healthy again, so you can dismiss his erratic start to the year. It would be shocking if he and Ryan didn’t hook up for 100 yards and at least a TD. The Bengals should bunce back against the Browns beat up secondary and A.J. Green has received double digit target 4 of the first 6 weeks of the season (8 in the other two weeks). The consistency of Mike Evans is worth every penny and so are his 4 TD’s in 5 games this year.
TE Hunter Henry SD $5.8K
Henry is a strong red zone option for Philip Rivers and the presence of Antonio Gates isn’t going to stunt his value.
K Jason Myers $4.5K
Myers is the cheapest kicker on the board with the most opportunity for points.
D/ST Patriots $4.4K
The Steelers have many weapons, but without Ben Roethlisberger it’s going to be a tough day against this underrated New England unit.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the eight-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football. He hosts The Fantasy Black Book Tues and Thurs 8-10pm est and Sunday Game Day 8-11am on FNTSY Network Radio.