Finally, you can start to exhale. After two weeks, stats are starting to normalize and player values are starting to take shape. Yes, the sample size is still quite small. However, we can begin to see by using Relative Position Value (RPV) how early streaks are effecting player value and team performance. Let’s take a look at the top 25 outfielders ranked coming into the season and their performance YTD in 2016 (heading into Thursday night’s games) Fantasy Black Book style.
Player PTS Raw RPV
Jose Bautista (TOR - RF,DH) 37.5 0.544
Chris Davis (BAL - 1B,RF,DH) 37.0 0.524
Bryce Harper (WSH - CF,RF) 36.5 0.503
Carlos Gonzalez (COL - RF) 36.5 0.503
Starling Marte (PIT - LF,CF) 32.5 0.339
Mookie Betts (BOS - CF,RF) 30.5 0.256
Matt Kemp (SD - RF) 30.5 0.256
Hunter Pence (SF - RF) 30.0 0.236
Nelson Cruz (SEA - RF,DH) 29.0 0.194
J.D. Martinez (DET - RF) 28.0 0.153
David Peralta (ARI - LF,RF) 27.0 0.112
Jason Heyward (CHC - CF,RF) 26.0 0.071
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA - RF) 24.0 -0.012
Mike Trout (LAA - CF) 23.0 -0.053
Lorenzo Cain (KC - CF) 22.5 -0.073
Charlie Blackmon (COL - LF,CF) 21.0 -0.135
Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY - CF) 20.5 -0.156
Andrew McCutchen (PIT - CF) 19.5 -0.197
George Springer (HOU - CF,RF) 18.5 -0.238
Justin Upton (DET - LF) 17.5 -0.279
Adam Eaton (CWS - CF,RF) 17.5 -0.279
Ryan Braun (MIL - LF,RF) 17.0 -0.300
Yoenis Cespedes (NYM - LF,CF) 16.5 -0.320
Carlos Gomez (HOU - CF) 5.5 -0.773
Adam Jones (BAL - CF) DTD 3.0 -0.876
As you can see, some top guys like Bryce Harper, Jose Bautista and Chris Davis have delivered the goods. Justin Upton, Carlos Gomez and George Springer have been underwhelming and are actually in the significant negative RPV pool. Adam Jones on the other hand hasn’t been healthy, nor has Charlie Blackmon who ended up on the DL this week. You have to give those guys a pass and hope for a rebound next month. Perhaps Andrew McCutchen has been the biggest disappointment in the early going considering his ADP and auction pricing. Or so it would seem…
Speaking of auction pricing, let’s take this list of ours a step further by adding in the average auction price these same players went for on draft day. This will give us their RPV per Dollar (RPVPD). That will determine just how cost effective the production they’ve delivered has been over the first two weeks.
Here’s the same group with auction prices added and sorted by RPV per Dollar (RPVPD):
Player PTS Raw RPV Salary RPV Per Dollar
Hunter Pence (SF - RF) 30.0 0.236 $ 16 0.646
Matt Kemp (SD - RF) 30.5 0.256 $ 17 0.630
Carlos Gonzalez (COL - RF) 36.5 0.503 $ 22 0.599
David Peralta (ARI - LF,RF) 27.0 0.112 $ 17 0.582
Jason Heyward (CHC - CF,RF) 26.0 0.071 $ 17 0.565
Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY - CF) 20.5 -0.156 $ 15 0.514
Chris Davis (BAL - 1B,RF,DH) 37.0 0.524 $ 30 0.461
Adam Eaton (CWS - CF,RF) 17.5 -0.279 $ 16 0.392
Jose Bautista (TOR - RF,DH) 37.5 0.544 $ 36 0.362
Starling Marte (PIT - LF,CF) 32.5 0.339 $ 32 0.346
J.D. Martinez (DET - RF) 28.0 0.153 $ 29 0.312
Ryan Braun (MIL - LF,RF)DTD 17.0 -0.300 $ 18 0.296
Nelson Cruz (SEA - RF,DH) 29.0 0.194 $ 32 0.267
Mookie Betts (BOS - CF,RF) 30.5 0.256 $ 34 0.259
Lorenzo Cain (KC - CF) 22.5 -0.073 $ 26 0.232
George Springer (HOU - CF,RF) 18.5 -0.238 $ 22 0.210
Bryce Harper (WSH - CF,RF) 36.5 0.503 $ 46 0.162
Justin Upton (DET - LF) 17.5 -0.279 $ 23 0.127
Charlie Blackmon (COL - LF,CF) 21.0 -0.135 $ 29 0.082
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA - RF) 24.0 -0.012 $ 38 -0.052
Yoenis Cespedes (NYM - LF,CF) 16.5 -0.320 $ 27 -0.087
Andrew McCutchen (PIT - CF) 19.5 -0.197 $ 39 -0.329
Mike Trout (LAA - CF) 23.0 -0.053 $ 47 -0.358
Carlos Gomez (HOU - CF) 5.5 -0.773 $ 24 -1.900
Adam Jones (BAL - CF)DTD 3.0 -0.876 $ 24 -4.317
When you invest in a stock you either want to pay for premium company shares and receive a premium return or buy cheap and see moderate to high returns. Why shouldn’t we demand the same performance out of our fantasy players? Well look who shoots up to the top of the NEW board! “Old Reliable” Hunter Pence has bounced back in a big way to open 2016 and right now he’s been the best outfield investment YTD. Of the previous TOP 5, only Carlos Gonzalez remains in that standing holding his return on investment. Jacoby Ellsbury’s spring training hit by pitch incident reduced his cost that last week or so heading into the season. If you took a chance on him, so far he’s paid off quite nicely.
Bautista and Davis have held their value pretty well. Harper on the other hand drops significantly, but the real anchor is Mike Trout who hits nearly rock bottom. Sure, it’s a slow start for Trout and he’s a “super elite” player as far as talent goes. However, we have just quantified how much your Mike Trout investment is hurting your fantasy team right now. That knowledge, my friends, is priceless!
Now we have a better understanding of these players return on investment and that’s the difference between first and last place in leagues. If we can develop a deeper understanding of a player’s true value, we become better owners, able to make better trades and acquisitions based on need. We then know what our weaknesses and our strengths are and can avoid overreactions and bad decisions. Once you identify the players delivering strong returns on investment from the ones bleeding your fantasy team dry, you’ll ready to take the next step with your fantasy game.
Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football. He hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and the Dear Mr. Fantasy Podcast.