Phoenix Suns-Milwaukee Bucks

Over/Under: 221.5

Spread: MIL -4.5

NBA Finals

Game 4

After the Suns hit 20 three-pointers to down the Bucks in game 2 of the series, their poor long-range shooting in game 3, along with Deandre Ayton being in foul trouble got the best of them allowing the window to stay open for Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo kept up his strong scoring posting a 40-plus point outing for the 2nd straight game. The Bucks won last game by 20 points, but the Suns still have the edge on the series but without Ayton for a good portion of last game, Phoenix lacks a true inside game. Jae Crowder has been relying more on his long-range game and Frank Kaminsky is soft and with no Dario Saric, the Suns guards are going to have to attack the rim on offense which Devin Booker should be doing more of when his shot isn’t falling. Jrue Holiday shot well for the Bucks but Khris Middleton was held under 20 points once again and he needs to look to attack the rim as the Bucks lack a true inside game beyond Antetokounmpo. Both Middleton and Holiday have good enough handles to take it to the rack and they should force themselves in the paint. If the Suns are shooting 10 percent better from the arc tonight, the Bucks better get their drive-game ready.

Injuries:

*Donte DiVincenzo-Out

*Dario Saric-Out

MVP/CAPTAIN 

Giannis Antetokounmpo- Is their really any other option we trust as our MVP? No! He continues to take over 20 field goals (or at least he has for the last 2 games) and he’s grabbed 12 or more boards and a steal in his last 3 games. Antetokounmpo has swatted away shots and dished at least four dimes in four of his last five outings. The mulyi-category production will continue to be strong and being that a key to beating the Suns last game was Ayton getting in foul trouble, expect Antetokounmpo to not settle for jumpers early and attack the paint to try and draw contact. Ayton may play a little bit more conservatively at first so he’s not limited like he was last game. Antetokounmpo has shot over 54 percent in ever game this series. He’s as safe as they come and remains consistent on all ends and it’s really hard choosing any other player to be an MVP of a lineup.

Chris Paul- I won’t deny anyone that wants to be contrarian, and if there’s another option on the board that deserves some true, it’s CP3. Paul continues to shoot very well from the field. He’s hit at least 50 percent of his shots in his last 4 games. Booker will continue to get prioritized more when it comes to shot-volume, but Paul has the higher ceiling when it comes to multi-category production. He’s produced eight or more assists in each of his last five games and grabbed a swipe in each of his last four games. He failed to grab a board last game, but throughout this series and even the regular-season, we’ve been able to count on him for at least four boards. Paul can’t beat the Bucks by himself and if the Suns are going to take command of this series tonight, he’ll need to be on the floor and if this game isn’t a blowout on either side, we can count on him for close to 40 minutes this evening. 

FLEX PLAYS 

Khris Middleton- He has to drive tonight and often. Middleton must show that he’s a dual threat and will attack the lane even if it isn’t fully open. He has size and strength and can get inside and that will help him accumulate more points. Middleton is once again getting his DFS total saved by his rebounding and passing. He’s grabbed at least six boards, dished at least six dimes and grabbed a steal in his last two games. It was encouraging seeing Middleton shoot better from beyond the arc, but assuming the Suns will be shooting better tonight, he’ll have to take more shots to keep the pace. He hit three three-pointers last game.  He’ll continue playing over 40 minutes for the rest of the series. As I continue to say, he must attack the rim in order to keep the Bucks in this series and he has taken just three free throws in the entire series. He needs to keep Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder moving around to tire them out and get better shots and driving the lane will help.

Devin Booker- After shooting 48 percent from the field and hitting 7 three-ball’s, Booker had a miserable shooting game hitting just 3-14 shots. Booker’s shooting has been up and down over the last couple of series and he’s only shot above 40 percent in just 1 game in this series. Booker will obviously take more shots tonight, but even his three-point shooting has been very hard to trust and he doesn’t always help in other areas. Booker has grabbed five or more boards in three of his last four games, but he didn’t help as much with dimes last game and hasn’t grabbed a steal since the first game of this series. Prior to last game, Booker had been taking over 20 shots a game in this series and while that bring some trust, he doesn’t help as consistently in other areas and it has become hard to rely on him for multi-category production. It all comes down to his shot at the end of the day.

Jrue Holiday- Holiday is coming off of his strongest game all series as he scored over 20 points for the first time this series and he continues to produce boards and dimes consistently. We’ve been able to depend on Holiday for five or more boards and he’s dished seven or more dimes in each game in the finals. As enticing as it will be for Holiday to once again take a lot of long distance shots (he hit 5-10 three-pointers) the Bucks need to show a dual threat of attacking even when Antetokounmpo is isolated and covered at the elbow. Holiday has the ability to drive with tenacity, but if he’s hitting his shots, expect him to camp out at the arc more. On defense, Holiday has blocked a shot and grabbed a steal in both of his last two contests and we should expect Holiday to play 40 minutes this evening. 

Deandre Ayton- Foul trouble kept a lid on Ayton from being able to extend his double-double streak, but he nearly did it anyway. He scored 18 points and grabbed 9 boards in just 24 minutes of playing time. The Suns need him on the floor as they lack players that have both size and strength and he should be able to produce 10 or more boards this evening. Prior to last game, Ayton grabbed at least 11 rebounds in 5 straight contests. He shot over 72 percent from the field and if the Suns are once again cold from downtown, it will be up to Ayton to produce from the post and he’s been very successful throughout the series. Ayton has grabbed multiple steals in his last two games as well. Centers get in foul trouble with all the paint play they have to endure. There’s a lot of contact under the basket, but Ayton has been good for the most part at not falling for pump fakes that draw contact and this has been the only game that foul trouble truly zapped his minutes in awhile.

Jae Crowder- Crowder’s production has risen in his last couple of games. He went 0-8 from the field to start the series and since then he’s hit 10-15 shots and 9-12 from long-range. Crowder should receive eight to 10 shots tonight after shooting 60 percent or better in his last 2 outings. Crowder has scored in double figures in three of his last four games. He blocked shots in two out of three games this series as well. His defense continues to keep him playing 33-plus minutes in this series. Crowder’s rebounding has helped boost his overall production as well. Crowder has produced 32 or more DraftKings points in his last 2 battles. He’s grabbed six or more boards in every game this series and even produced a double-double in the second game of the series. If Booker isn’t hitting shots and Bridges isn’t getting set up properly for his shots, Crowder will be more than just a bailout option and he’ll get even more shot attempts.

DART THROWS 

Cameron Johnson- Johnson continues to serve his purpose and hit shots when asked. Johnson has shot over 45 percent from the floor in every game in this series and we shouldn’t expect him to get 30 minutes again tonight, but he should be in the low-20’s tonight and he’ll continue to be an offensive spark off the bench. The Suns need Crowder and Bridges on the floor for their superb defense and that limits Jonson’s ceiling. Johnson has scored in double figures in three of his last four games and he can be relied on to pull down at least three rebounds. Even though he only hit one three-pointer last game he’ll still get set up as a bailout option off the bench. Expect Johnson to get five to eight shots this evening. In a closer game, Johnson won’t hit that 30-minute mark. If the Suns need to shoot themselves back into tonight’s contest, Johnson will take more shots.

Pat Connaughton- The minutes floor is safe, and Connaughton has shot well from the floor this series, but, he doesn’t get a lot of shots. Connaughton played 30 minutes or more in his last 2 games. He’s hit at least 50 percent of his shots in every game in the finals but he’s mainly a three-point shooter. Connaughton has grabbed three or more boards in his last two games as well, but you’re mainly investing in his scoring. This is why Connaughton is the ultimate dart throw because he’s solidly in the Bucks rotation, but his offense is utilized far less than other Bucks options. He’s scored in double figures in two of his last four battles. He’s grabbed steals in three of his last five games, but has failed to grab one in either of his last two contests.