Phoenix Suns-Milwaukee Bucks

Over/Under: 221.5

Spread: MIL -4.5

NBA Finals

Game 3

Last game was just an extension of game one. We didn’t learn anything knew, but rather we were given more assurance that the Suns are in control of this series. The Bucks have to play a near-perfect game tonight if they are going to survive in this series. No NBA team has ever successfully fought back down 0-3 and this Bucks team isn’t the team to do it. Both teams shot well from the field, but what hindered the Bucks was their poor three-point shooting and free throw shooting. Yes, Antetokounmpo scored 42 points, but he missed 7 foul shots. Khris Middleton scored just 11 points going 5-16 from the field and Jrue Holiday hasn’t shot well either. The Bucks need to adjust and start guarding the perimeter better because you can’t sacrifice it again after Phoenix 20 three-pointers last game. The season is on the line for the Bucks and just from what we’ve seen in the first two games, the Bucks have thrown everything they can at the Suns and they will need the Suns to drop the ball when it comes to their shooting tonight if they have any shot at fighting back into this series.

Injuries:

*Torrey Craig-Probable

*Donte DiVincenzo-Out

*Dario Saric-Out

MVP/CAPTAIN 

Giannis Antetokounmpo- For the third time in his last four games, Antetokounmpo posted a double-double and he remains the safest CPT option on the board and high Knee injury is long in our rearview mirrors at this point as he continues to log heavy minutes. He played 40 minutes last game and he’ll have a similar workload tonight. Antetokounmpo has grabbed blocks in his last four and steals in four of his last five contests. Antetokounmpo was able to drive the lane with a bit more power, but, he’s still a liability from beyond the arc so it will be up to paint-presence for him to keep the Bucks alive. He’ll help distribute the rock a bit as well because he can’t complete all of his cuts pain-free in the lane and once he’s halted and the extra defender tries to trap him, he will be forced to pass off. We can expect the heavy minutes, multi-category production and there’s zero reason why he shouldn’t take 20-plus shots. He has to! Even if Middleton has a bounce-back shooting night, Holiday hasn’t been able to fully get things going and Antetokounmpo will need to put it all on the table to save the Bucks season. Expect him to force himself on the low-block more. He often gets the ball at the elbow and the Bucks should look to post him up a bit more. It’s less grueling on his body and he’ll draw a mismatch a decent amount and he’ll take more high-percentage shots. 

Chris Paul- Even though Devin Booker will get more shots, Paul continues to have the higher ceiling when it comes to multi-category production. Paul has dished at least eight dimes in his last four games and he continues to shoot at least 50 percent from the floor in the NBA Finals. Paul has taken 19 or more shots in each of his last 7 games. Paul continues to be a reliable three-point shooter and because Booker will drive the lane, Paul is able to move around the arc to get open from downtown. Paul is also good at creating his own shots and even if he can shake his defender off the dribble for a couple of seconds, he’ll fire away from long-range. Paul has grabbed steals and four boards per game in his last three contests as well. Paul played over 40 minutes for the first time in 6 games. The Suns need him on the court and he’ll stay on the floor until he can’t move. He’s hit double-digit shots in his last three battles as well. We’ve seen the consistency in his numbers and that brings a lot of safety heading into tonight if we want to make him our MVP.

Khris Middleton- The third option for CPT/MVP is offered in case you want to be a bit contrarian. There will be a lot of trust put into Antetokounmpo at that spot, but, it was impressive seeing Middleton save face for DFS on a poor shooting night by producing in other areas. He kept his turnovers down as well. Middleton dished eight dimes for the second time in four games and he grabbed six boards as well. Middleton has now posted multi-steal outings in four of his last five contests. Expect Middleton to take more shots, even if they’re forced with the season on the line. This isn’t the team built to dig themselves out of a 0-3 deficit and if they are truly going to put all of their chips on the table (which they should), Middleton should take 25 shots tonight. Prior to the second game of this series, Middleton had shot over 45 percent from the floor in his previous 3 contests. Middleton has hit 40 percent of his three-pointers in 2 of his last 3 games. We’ve seen him recover from bad shooting performances before, and with the Bucks winless thus far, it gives Middleton a safer shot-floor.

FLEX PLAYS 

Devin Booker- Expect Booker to take 21-25 shots tonight, but, can we trust that he’ll hit 48 percent of his shots which includes hitting 7 three-pointers? Seeing Booker grab five boards and dish six dimes for the second straight game is encouraging. Normally, we can count on him for steals as well. The Bucks will prioritize him tonight when it comes to double-teaming and Booker will need to be on his toes. Booker has done a great job of mixing his offensive styles to keep the Bucks moving on defense. Booker has a strong drive as well as a strong shot and he’ll take time to find the best shot and not rush them. Booker is coming off of his second 31-point game in his last 4. He’ll continue playing 42-plus minutes as the Suns top shooting option. Avoid putting him in that CPT spot as other options have higher ceilings, but seeing the multi-category production this series keeps him in play. 

Jrue Holiday- He’s still not shooting well in this series, but he, like Middleton saved face by producing multiple blocks and steals for the second time in three games. Holiday has grabbed six boards per game this series and he’s dished eight dimes per game on average. Expect Holiday to play 40 minutes tonight and the Bucks can’t afford to not have him on the floor because of his defense and the Bucks need all of the help they can get defensively. The Bucks will need to make sure Holiday not only covers the arc and let that be his primary responsibility, but they need to send back up incase he is screened out so they don’t let up a basket. Holiday has done all he can reading through screens, but if another defender won’t step up and have his back, the Suns will keep screening him out to get rid of their best defender outside the paint. Holiday has taken at least 20 shots in 3 of his last 4 contests. We’ll see tonight if he is able to free himself at the arc to put up more three-pointers. He has only taken seven collectively in the Finals and this is after we saw him take 12 in the final game of the series versus Atlanta. The Bucks should look to find ways to get him double-screened on the perimeter so he can put up a high-percentage three-ball.

Deandre Ayton- We should all think that the Bucks will be prioritizing the perimeter on defense tonight and that can give Ayton more room to work the paint. After scoring 22 points in the first game of the series, Ayton took the same amount of shots, but only scored 10 points. He’ll have more chances to produce and I’m expecting Ayton to take more than three free throws this evening. Ayton has produced five straight double-doubles. He’s blocked multiple shots in four of his last six and he’s grabbed steals in four of his last five games. It’s not all about the boards for Ayton. He’s played no fewer than 39 minutes in each of his last 3 games. Ayton hasn’t committed one turnover in the finals as well. The Bucks are going to have to decide between preventing Ayton from getting easy cuts and pick and rolls to the basket or covering the perimeter heavily to stop the bleeding from the arc. Expect Ayton to produce more on the offensive end tonight.

Brook Lopez- There aren’t a lot of options to choose from, but Lopez continues to rebound and block shots in this series and that keeps him in play. Even though Lopez scored just nine points last time out, he has taken 10 or more shots in both contests in this series and he’ll see some high-percentage looks from beyond the arc. Lopez has blocked one shot in each of his last 10 games and he’s blocked multiple shots in 3 of his last 4 games. Lopez hasn’t been able to cover the Suns guards effectively and they will look to switch Antetokounmpo to center and that will keep Lopez on the bench at times. Lopez has grabbed two steals in two of his last four games. He’s still getting the shots, boards and blocks and he normally lacks toughness on the glass.

DART THROWS 

Pat Connaughton- If Antetokounmpo is going to play more center tonight, expect to see more of Connaughton, who has played 30-plus minutes in 2 of his last 3 games. If Holiday is once again not hitting his shots, Connuaghton will be fed more. Connaughton has scored 13 or more points and grabbed at least 7 rebounds in 2 of his last 3 games. Connaughton took 10 shots last game and he’s shot over 44 percent from downtown in each of his last 3 outings. Why not give him more shots if he’s hitting them? Expect Connaughton to be set up more at the arc tonight. He’s also grabbed steals in three of his last four games. P.J. Tucker doesn’t take a lot of shots and that also leaves more room for Connaughton in the offensive game plan.

Cameron Johnson- Even though Torrey Craig is likely suiting up tonight, that doesn’t necessarily mean that he will play a lot of minutes. We saw him get 16 in the first game of the series and those minutes could be given to Johnson. Johnson continues to not get a lot of shots in this series, but when called upon, he’s been hitting them. Johnson can be relied on to grab a few boards and he’s grabbed multiple swipes in two of his last three games. Johnson made some excellent defensive plays throughout the playoffs even though he’s on the court more for his offense. The problem with Johnson is that he has a limited ceiling and if Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder are hitting their shots, Johnson will be kept on the bench. Both Bridges and Crowder are needed for their stellar defense. Both Bridges and Crowder have been inconsistent scorers throughout the playoffs, but, Crowder has been more inconsistent and we’ve seen Bridges pick up more shots in the finals. If Crowder is misfiring as he has many times this postseason, plus Craig not being 100 percent, Johnson should see 20 minutes tonight.