Phoenix Suns-Milwaukee Bucks

Over/Under: 219

Spread: PHX -5.5

NBA Finals

Game 1

It has been a very long time since the Suns or the Bucks have reached the NBA Finals. The Suns brought their A-game back from the bubble and sat towards the top of the Western Conference throughout the season. We saw a lot of growth from Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton as Chris Paul has proven once again that he makes his teammates around him better. Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder have been two of the fiercest defenders in the league. On the other side, the Bucks enter the finals with Giannis Antetokounmpo dealing with a hyper-extended Knee, but as we’ve inched closer to the start of the series, his status has been upgraded from “Doubtful” to “Questionable” and even “Game-Time Decision” ahead of Game 1. In both meetings between these two teams, the games were separated by a point and were high scoring, but, that was with a healthy Antetokounmpo. How will a less than 100 percent Greek Freak impact the Bucks ball movement in this game? Can the Bucks afford to not have Antetokounmpo play? A lot of questions remain with the start of this series imminent. 

Injuries:

*Giannis Antetokounmpo-Questionable

*Donte DiVincenzo-Out

MVP/CAPTAIN 

Giannis Antetokounmpo- A lot has changed regarding his status throughout the day, but if you bet on Antetokounmpo, you go all the way. We don’t know about any kind of limitations at this time. It’s hard to get a feel about whether or not he can still move as swiftly down the lane. Can he still be dominant and match what Deandre Ayton produces in the post to keep this a game? Starting Antetokounmpo is a tad risky being that we don’t know how much slower he’ll have to move. One false move, bad footing and he’ll either be limited or out of the game. If active, the Bucks could use him more as a decoy in the beginning of the game. Antetokounmpo upon possession of the ball will draw defenders to him and another member of the Bucks can cut to the basket or might have an open shot. This could result in fewer shot attempts if he is in fact used as a decoy on offense, but, it would preserve his body a bit more if he hung around the elbow and arc. Remember, watch the news as there is still plenty of time for him to get ruled out of this game. 

Khris Middleton- After having such a strong final couple of games with Antetokounmpo sidelined, especially if Antetokounmpo doesn’t play, Middleton becomes the top option. Middleton will get hounded by Bridges and Crowder on the perimeter, but he shouldn’t have a shortage of shots and he’s taken at least 20 in 3 of his last 4 games. He’s grabbed double-digit boards in two of his last four and has dished seven or more dimes in four of his last five contests. Middleton is going to have to drive down the lane more especially if Antetokounmpo doesn’t play. They have to show that they can produce in the paint and with Middleton being the go-to option, he should try getting the Suns defense out of position and he can do that by not being as stationary on the elbow. Middleton should play 40 minutes tonight and he’s grabbed multiple steals in his last 3 outings. Middleton produced a double-double in one game and scored 26 points in other regular-season game versus Phoenix.

Chris Paul- After having two strong regular-season outings against the Bucks and scoring 41 points to close out the Clippers, Paul should absolutely be considered tonight as a CPT, especially if Antetokounmpo doesn’t play because the lane won’t be as clogged and that should benefit Paul’s assist-numbers for tonight’s game. While providing minor rebounding help, Paul has dished eight or more dimes in three of his last four games. He’s grabbed multiple steals in three of his last five contests and he should play between 35-40 minutes tonight. Paul will have the ball in his hands for most of the game and he should take 20 shots this evening. It will be interesting to see which Suns guard will draw Jrue Holiday. The Bucks not having Donte DiVincenzo available is crucial in a match up like this and whoever doesn’t draw Holiday for most of the game will have an easier time getting high-percentage shots. Paul hit seven three-pointers last game.

FLEX PLAYS 

Jrue Holiday- We saw those production numbers skyrocket when Antetokounmpo was off the floor, but what happens if he does play? Holiday won’t have the ball as much in his hands but that doesn’t mean he can’t make a difference. Like Middleton, he’ll need to be aggressive and drive the lane. He had a 25-point game against the Suns earlier this season and he’s scored at least 25 in his last 2 contests. Holiday has dished nine or more dimes in each of his last four battles. When Antetokounmpo was off the floor, he took 20 or more shots and he can still hover around that area even if he does play. Holiday is also coming off of a four-steal game and the Bucks need his defense. He should absolutely play 40 minutes tonight and he’s even pulled down more rebounds lately. Based off the trends we’ve seen, it’s set up to be a big night for Holiday once again if Antetokounmpo doesn’t play. He’s produced at least 56 DraftKings points in his last 2 contests. His drive-game must be intact this evening.

Deandre Ayton- The last time these two teams met, Ayton dropped 20 points and grabbed 13 rebounds against the Bucks and he’s absolutely in play with an injured Greek Freak. As tough as Bobby Portis is, it will be hard for him to size up against Ayton and Brook Lopez is soft defensively and Ayton should be able to bully him in the lane as much as he wants. Ayton has produced four double-doubles in his last five games. He’s improved his game on both sides of the ball throughout the year and he’s blocked multiple shots in three of his last four outings. Ayton is an inside-specific Center who continues to take high-percentage shots when called upon. His post moves have been hard to contain thus far in the playoffs. Ayton should once again be in line to grab a lot of boards. He should be able to notch a double-double tonight and the Suns should look to give him 10-15 shots inside the arc. Include Ayton in your builds tonight.

Devin Booker- We know Booker will get the minutes and shots, but how many will he hit? He shot miserably in the Clippers series and he won’t hit value if he doesn’t score a lot of points and turns the ball over a lot. Booker brings a bit of risk on one end, but it is a new series and Booker scored 30 and 24 points against the Bucks in the regular-season. Booker has produced swipes in his last four games, but he doesn’t always come through when it comes to rebounding and steals. At least we know with Paul that he’ll grab you steals and give us a safer floor when it comes to assists. Booker may take more shots than Paul, but if he’s going to have to score at least 30 points to bring back a good return on investment, Paul becomes the smarter player to invest in.

Brook Lopez- Both Lopez and Bobby Portis become more appealing if Antetokounmpo, but when it comes to which of the two has the easier path to more minutes and more opportunities to produce, it favors Lopez. Lopez showed in the Hawks series that he can play deep into games if needed and he blocked seven shots total in his last two games. Lopez upped his rebounding a bit later in the series versus the Hawks and despite Lopez having poor outings versus the Suns this season, if Antetokounmpo sits, expect Lopez to leave the arc and actually play like a big man on offense in the paint. Portis will get plenty of time as well, however, if we find out that Antetokounmpo is going to play without limitations, Portis becomes a huge risk and Lopez becomes far less appealing. Lopez has grabbed steals in four of his last five games as well. 

DART THROWS 

P.J. Tucker- Tucker is used primarily as a bailout option on offense, but if he see’s the side of the lane open, he’ll back-door cut inside for an easy deuce and he’s taken seven or more shots in two of his last three games. The Bucks will need him out there tonight to provide toughness at the elbow and in the lane on defense and he should play 30 minutes this evening. Tucker has grabbed at least seven boards and a steal in four of his last five contests. There’s a bit of a revenge narrative attached to Tucker as well being that he played multiple years for the Suns. The rebounding and the steals have been there and he at least gets the shots and doesn’t turn the ball over much. He’s a prime dart throw and naturally could see more love in the offense if Antetokounmpo sits again.

Cameron Johnson: Johnson missed the Suns last game because he was sick, but he’s back to 100 percent and should see at least 20 minutes tonight. Johnson has shot 50 percent or better from the floor in each of his last 5 games and scored in double figures in all but 1 of those games. Johnson see’s a lot of high-percentage shots being a bail-out shooter and when Jae Crowder was struggling to provide offense, Johnson helped balance out the team. Johnson has grabbed four or more boards in four of his last five contests. Crowder and Bridges will both log a ton of minutes because of their defense, but, if the Suns struggle shooting, Johnson could be relied on to fire away from the field more. He’s grabbed steals in three of his last five contests.