Philadelphia 76ers-Atlanta Hawks

Over/Under: 224

Spread: PHI -7

Game 5

Despite Atlanta’s poor shooting, they were able to survive the fourth game of this series to even it at two. The Sixers played soft down the stretch. Joel Embiid wasn’t going up as strong and he struggled shooting from the field. If Embiid can’t lift his body enough to make a wide-open layup at the end of the game, somebody else has to come through. Ben Simmons can’t fear the free-throw line. He can’t drive any less because he doesn’t want to get fouled and go to the line. Simmons’ drive and whether it plays the disappearing act again will be the difference maker tonight for Philly. As for the Hawks, they have no choice but to shoot better. It will be hard for them to escape with another victory shooting under 40 percent. John Collins and Clint Capela saw a lot of success in the post last game, and we can expect the Hawks big men to be more aggressive attacking the lane against a hobbled Embiid. Watch for Atlanta’s post and paint play tonight.

Injuries:

*Joel Embiid-Questionable

*Danny Green-Out

*De’Andre Hunter-Out

*Cam Reddish-Out

 

Player Breakdown: 

Joel Embiid- There’s not too much to dissect. The guy took 20 shots and hit only 4 of them last game. He’ll continue to take a lot of shots and play a lot of minutes. Embiid grabbed 21 rebounds last game. He is still making an impact and we have nothing to worry about when it comes to limitations. The Sixers can’t advance without Embiid on the floor. He’s blocked shots and grabbed steals in three of his last four contests. Expect Embiid to be a bit more tenacious in the lane tonight. They don’t want to go back to Atlanta with the series on the line. Don’t expect him to retreat more to the arc with the injury. 

Trae Young- Even though when he sits he has a heating pad as big as his Head attached to his Shoulder, the Hawks need Young to handle most of the offense. They have too many streaky shooters and Young is forced to use his tear-drop. It hasn’t come as easy for him to hit those in this series against the lengthy Ben Simmons, but, when the Sixers defense backs up a bit, he’s picked up on it more and can hit a couple before being contested. Young took 26 shots last game and we can continue to expect him to stay in that range. He himself has been streaky shooting the basketball this series, but what Young has done a great job of is recognizing the Hawks shooting struggles and is feeding bigger players in the post more. Look at Young’s assist-numbers because he’s dished at least 10 dimes in 3 of 4 games against the 76ers. Young is coming off of an 18-assist game. Young will need to score at least 30 points tonight for the Hawks to take the lead in this series.

Ben Simmons- A more aggressive Simmons will lead to better results. Shooting free throws in the playoffs are indeed pressure-filled, but the more he gets to the line, the more chances the points will come. Even if he goes one for two from the stripe, if he frequently charges down the lane and gets fouled, he’ll get more chances and the points will add up little by little, but instead, Simmons would rather pick up his dribble and pass to another cutter and not get open. Simmons went up for a rebound very softly and easily could have palmed the ball to save the possession for the Sixers at the end of game four but, instead, thought the Hawks would hit it out of bounds and it never happened costing the Sixers a massive possession. That can’t happen tonight! It was good seeing Simmons grab more boards and block more shots last game, but, he needs to match that intensity on the offensive side of the ball to keep the Hawks defense from getting set. His driving ability will keep the defense shifting.

John Collins- Going into last game, we knew we needed to see more of Collins and if you watched the game, his impact he made beyond the stat sheet was incredible. He was driving the lane with ease and throwing down thunderous dunks kept the Hawks inspired and we can expect Collins to shoot 12-15 shots tonight. Collins has grabbed double-digit boards and blocked a shot in two of his last 3 games Collins was able to eat Philly up in the post as he only hit one three-pointer during the game. Staying out of foul trouble like he did last game will be crucial for Collins heading into tonight. Collins has seen a lot of success in the post throughout the series and the difference between him and Clint Capela is on-the-ball ability because Collins can create for himself with the ball. Capela is raw offensively and he’ll be utilized more on transition for ally-oops and he’ll be responsible for put-backs.

Seth Curry- With Danny Green out, Embiid hobbled, Simmons soft and Tobias Harris constantly being double-teamed, Curry (along with Furkan Korkmaz) will be asked to hit shots. Curry, on DraftKings, continues to give five-x returns for the most part. He’s taken double-digit shots in every game this series and we can expect him to play at least 32 minutes tonight. If Ben Simmons isn’t turning up the aggressiveness early in the game, the Sixers will have to start feeding Curry more heavily from long-range. He hasn’t shot lower than 40 percent from the arc in any game this series and the Sixers. Philly needs to give Curry more shots tonight. He’ll provide minor assist and boards help but we’re mainly looking at the shots from him tonight. The minutes floor is there for him, but hopefully Curry gets 13-15 shots tonight.

Utah Jazz-Los Angeles Clippers

Over/Under: 220.5

Spread: UT -7

Game 5

As the Clippers crawled their way back into this series to tie it up, they will be without their leader Kawhi Leonard for at least tonight’s game. The rest of the series isn’t looking good either, but we’ve seen players with their bodies performing at 50 percent effectiveness take the court in the past. For tonight, the Clippers will need to bring the same defense to Utah that they had in Los Angeles even without their main weapon. Shooters like Marcus Morris Sr. and Reggie Jackson will have to be ready to pick up the slack and help Paul George carry the Clippers offense. As for the Jazz, Mike Conley still isn’t ready to return to action and if Donovan Mitchell doesn’t get more help from teammates, he will gas-out and start carelessly turning the ball over. Joe Ingles will have to take more shots so it all doesn’t fall on Mitchell. The Jazz have played well at home and the Clippers have a bit of a challenge ahead of them tonight.

Injuries:

*Kawhi Leonard-Out

*Mike Conley-Out

*Serge Ibaka-Out

Player Breakdown:

Donovan Mitchell- Mitchell didn’t take a lot of great shots last game. He was more impactful from outside rather than inside and he is asked to do a lot. With no Conley once again, expect Mitchell to take 25 or more shots. He’s exceeded that number in three of four games in this series. Mitchell has been shooting well for the most part and he’s grabbed five boards, grabbed a steal and dished four or more dimes in his last two outings. Mitchell has also scored at least 30 points in each of his last 6 games. It was encouraging seeing Mitchell get to the free-throw line as much as he did and the Clippers Enforcer’s won’t allow any easy layups. He’s the safest Utah option and he’ll need to come up huge tonight and shoot better (even with Leonard out) in order for the Jazz to take the lead with the series heading back to Los Angeles for the sixth game. 

Paul George- With Leonard off the floor, we saw George have a near 36 percent usage rate and if there’s any night to silence the doubters, tonight IS that night. “Pandemic P!” “Playoff P!” All of the name-calling will stop if George comes through tonight. George has scored 31 points and grabbed a steal in both of his last 2 games in this series. Be prepared for George to once again play 40 minutes tonight because he is desperately needed. George has been a reliable shooter over his last few games. He’s shot at least 40 percent from downtown in his last 2 games. George will have to help clear out the garbage inside by grabbing rebounds as well and he’s pulled down nine or more in three of his last four games. George should easily take 23 shots in this game as the top option for the Clippers and he’ll contribute a few assists as well as he’ll get a good amount of time to bring up the ball. 

Rudy Gobert- Yes, foul trouble hindered Gobert, but there isn’t any other reason why he shouldn’t be able to post a 10-rebound game in every game this series. Leonard being out gives Gobert even less to have to contend with in the post and we should see a bounce-back from him tonight when it comes to his rebounding. Last game was the only game all series in which he didn’t grab double-digit rebounds and as the Clippers continue to go small, Gobert should take full advantage inside. He continues to score in double figures consistently and he should be able to take at least five to eight field goals tonight and go to the free-throw line a few times as well. The Clippers don’t give Ivica Zubac a full workload of minutes and with Serge Ibaka out, they will continue to lead heavily on Marcus Morris Sr.

Marcus Morris Sr.- We’ve seen Morris be one of the best three-point shooters in the league at times and we’ve seen him be one of the most impactful post-defenders in the league and tonight, he will have to be both the solid jump-shooter and Enforcer on defense. Making up for an absent Kawhi Leonard isn’t easy, but Morris see’s an over 24 percent usage rate with Leonard off the floor. It’s a near 2.5 percent bump in usage. Expect Morris to play into the mid-30s tonight and he should take 12-15 shots tonight with Leonard off the floor. Morris went five for six from long-range last game and scored 24 points. Morris has grabbed six or more boards in two of his last three games and he’s compiled steals in three of his last fur outings. Will we see more of Terance Mann and Luke Kennard? Very likely! But, Morris is going to have to step up and being the second scoring option for this team. Reggie Jackson will help and Morris will often be utilized as a bailout option from downtown. Morris will have to be in Bojan Bogdanovic’s face to limit him and keep Donovan Mitchell from getting free access to the lane. He’s a key player tonight for the Clippers

Joe Ingles- Mike Conley isn’t ready and Ingles will benefit. Expect Ingles to play around 30 minutes tonight and even though he only took 9 shots last game, Ingles continues to shoot very well from beyond the arc. He hasn’t shot under 57 percent from the arc since the first game of this series. Ingles has scored 19 points and grabbed 3 or more boards and 1 steal in each of his last 3 games. Ingles should take double-digit shots tonight and he’ll even help a bit on the assist-front as well. Even though Jordan Clarkson has played more minutes than Ingles over his last couple of games, Ingles ha been the more reliable shooter and ball-handler and the Jazz will need to rely on him a bit more in order to generate enough offense and not put as much on Donovan Mitchell’s Shoulders. Another Jazz teammate will need to help him tonight!

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