Philadelphia 76ers-Atlanta Hawks

Over/Under: 224.5

Spread: PHI -1.5

Game 3

After the Hawks stunned the Eastern Conference top-seeded 76ers in game one of the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals of the NBA Playoffs, the Sixers were able to maintain control of game two to even the series. Joel Embiid continues to fight through his torn Meniscus in his Knee and scored 40 points and grabbed 13 rebounds to lead the Sixers last game. He continues to produce through the pain. As for the Hawks, if their starters are going cold from beyond the arc, they will need to rely more on Danilo Gallinari and Kevin Huerter to hit big shots. They’ll get more run for the remainder of their playoff existence with De’Andre Hunter shelved.

Injuries:

*Joel Embiid-Questionable

*De’Andre Hunter-Out

Player Breakdown:

Joel Embiid- Notice that Trae Young wasn’t boasting as much going “Back to the A” this series as opposed to last and that’s because the Hawks have a much bigger problem to deal with in Embiid. Embiid continues to play through a partial tear in his Knee and he has shown that he can play deep into the game. Embiid played 35 minutes last game. Yes, he’s on the injury report, but, with the series being as tight as it is, the Sixers need him out there. It would be shocking if he sat for this game. Embiid has also blocked four shots in this series. He’s healthy! The minutes and numbers show it and we can expect a full workload if this game stay’s close. 

Trae Young- The Sixers have been doing everything to closing down lanes, to intercepting Young’s passes & putting more pressure on him to take lower-percentage shots and as much as it’s working as he was limited to 21 points last game, going 1-7 from the arc, Young was still able to produce at a high level because he made up for it in assists. Young has dropped 10.5 dimes per game in this series. It would have been an even more productive night if anyone in the starting lineup could knock-down trey’s (pun intended). He’s the one constant in this offense while most others are very streaky thus making him ultra-reliable.

Tobias Harris- It’s been a lot of fun seeing a more aggressive Harris in the playoffs. He’s not camping out at the arc as much and he’s been able to succeed at driving the lane and having his way in the post. He’s shot over 52 percent from the field in each of his last 3 contests. Harris has actually scored 20 or more points in his last 5 games. Harris gets a good amount of shots and he is completely beating up John Collins and unfortunately for the Hawks, with Hunter out, it’s either Collins or Danilo Gallinari who will be on Harris and Harris will blow by both of them when set up at the elbow with the ball. Another benefit Harris brings to fantasy players is his ability to block shots, grab steals and even dish a few dimes, as he’s produced four or more steals in four of his last five games.  

Ben Simmons- We all know Simmons can get to the basket, but the question is, how many times will attempt to drive? After seeing him put up three field goals last game, we can’t even argue that it was any kind of fluke because he has only taken 10 or more shots in 2 of his last 5 contests. Simmons continues to grab steals consistently as he’s posted two multi-steal outings. It’s a bit concerning that his rebounding has been down as well. Simmons is not much of a shooter and if you rely on him in this two-game slate, just know that he may score in single digits again in this series, but if he isn’t going to grab boards, he won’t give us the return on investment we are looking for. Be careful tonight! 

John Collins- Collins is a very confusing player and I was wondering why the Hawks coaches didn’t encourage him to shoot more from the outside when the starters weren’t hitting three-pointers. This is crucial for tonight because if we see the Hawks down and Collins trying to score inside the arc for the most part, it could mean more Gallinari tonight. Gallinari took 15 shots and went 5-9 from downtown. The reason Collins is the focus here is because when Hunter was out in the season, Collins got nearly a two-percent usage bump. One thing is for certain and that’s Collins will play more minutes and if he can’t give us a highly-productive game from the scoring standpoint, it will be hard to trust him moving forward for DFS. 

Phoenix Suns-Denver Nuggets

Over/Under: 223

Spread: DEN -1.5

Game 3

The Nuggets look finished. There’s no other way to put it. They aren’t healthy, they aren’t shooting well and the Suns suffocating defense is burning a hole right in the center of the Nuggets offensive game plan. If they are going to fight back and somehow win this series, it’s going to come down to the play of the MVP. Jokic has to be more active in scoring. Michael Porter Jr. is clearly not 100 percent. It was great seeing Will Barton back in action, but he can only play so many minutes because he’s just returning to action. If Porter is to hurt to exert the force to drive the lane, Aaron Gordon has to do it. He has the ups to do so and he can’t just stay at the arc waiting and looking around. Gordon must help Jokic attack the rim tonight if Denver has a chance to win. As for the Suns, Chris Paul looks healthy, Deandre Ayton is producing in the post and Devin Booker has been crashing the boards and all three posted double-doubles last game.

Injuries:

*PJ Dozier-Out

Player Breakdown:

Nikola Jokic- The reigning NBA MVP has to score at least 30 points tonight in order for Denver to keep their playoff hopes alive. They will not win if he doesn’t and they will not bounce back in this series if they go down 0-3. Expect Jokic to take at least 23 shots tonight. He has to! Denver hasn’t shot well. Michael Porter Jr. is clearly not 100 percent and if the starters won’t hit three-pointers, Jokic will have to bang his way inside. There’s no reason why he shouldn’t be playing at least 35 minutes tonight, even in a blowout. No NBA team has come back in a series down 0-3 in league history and this isn’t the team to do it. They need Jokic out there tonight to save their series.

Chris Paul- No more excuses! Unless we actually see his Shoulder get injured, Paul looks good and the ball movement has been fluid. Paul has posted double-digit dimes, in each of his last three contests. He has played over 30 minutes in both games and he’s taken double-digit shots. Paul has also grabbed 5.5 boards per game in this series. The Denver guard situation is still problematic, as Facundo Campazzo, Monte Morris and Austin Rivers haven’t been doing a good job of containing the Suns guards. Will Barton being back in the mix helps, but who knows how many minutes he’ll get tonight as he’s still working his way back to full speed? Paul is a very safe DFS option as he’s scored 19 points per game this series. 

Deandre Ayton- Two games, two double-doubles. We have to continue riding the success. Ayton has taken more shots in this series than last taking at least 10 in both games and in 6 of his last 8 battles. Even if Jokic produces more offensively, that will benefit Ayton because the game will be closer and he’ll get to play more minutes. He played 36 in the first game and then 26 in the second. He’s been doing an excellent job using his wingspan to tower over Denver to grab rebounds and his footwork is a lot more intact on defense this season and it’s very difficult getting him out of position. 

Michael Porter Jr.-This is a warning post because for those that didn’t listen last time, let’s run it back. Porter hasn’t been moving the same on the court because of a bad back. He isn’t taking and hitting as many three-pointers because it’s painful for him to extend. He isn’t cutting to the basket because extending his body is clearly painful for him. Porter is stuck shooting mid-range jumpers. He shot 23 percent from the floor last game and when it comes to his three-point shooting, he’s hit 5-17 in the series. Porter isn’t making a defensive impact as well. Aaron Gordon needs more involvement in this offense. He must cut to the basket more and do what Porter can’t physically do right now. We can see Paul Millsap take a few more shots, as he was more reliable of a shooter last game than Porter. Denver has to do something different when players are hurt and they aren’t adjusting. Porter is too risky to trust right now for DFS. 

Devin Booker-Does Booker have a bit of risk attached to him? Yes, because as we have seen in this series, his shots have been limited because Denver is completely outmatched by Phoenix right now. If he isn’t going to score, he must produce more in other areas and he has been rebounding a bit more in the playoffs. Booker has actually grabbed 10 or more boards in 2 of his last 3 contests. He’ll provide some help with dimes and steals. He’s a bit riskier to start than Paul when questioning who to start between the two in a potential blowout. Paul has more control of the offense and the ball, thus, making his path to achieving a double-double a lot easier than Booker. Denver is favored though so if you go by Vegas, expect the Nuggets to bring more fire tonight thus making Booker more involved in the Suns offense.

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