Howard Bender will be off today and tomorrow. He is off Phishing. What is he going to catch? God knows. So I will be manning the Pitching Coach ship while Howard is off living in 1969.

As the weekend guy it’s not often I get to do this article without a split slate. It’s very nice for a change to put all my eggs in one basket. We have several nice options on the slate and some great possible value tonight in decent matchups which should make getting some exposure to those bigger bats a little easier. We also have a Coors Field game which throws the DFS world into a nightmare.

So with a fresh cup of coffee on a Tuesday morning and a smile, I bring you today’s Pitching Coach Article.

The Real Jerry Colvin amateur Weather Report

OK, so I am not a real weather man. I simply go the National Weather Forecast and spend a few minutes looking over the map. I check for rain location, temperatures, and dew points. Focusing on the areas where there will be MLB. It is just scratching 4 a.m. as I write this so please understand that the weather changes. Quickly at times. I would only use my forecast for a quick glance to make myself aware of where baseballs can fly or die and weather could kill your night. Just understand, I am not doing anything here that no one else could do but glance at a weather page. I am doing this just as a courtesy to provide the best content possible while trying to give you the heads up for your day. Weather is more important when it comes to pitching than hitting. Fact.

Today’s Forecast

The weather has not changed much from yesterday. If you live anywhere in the country besides the West Coast than you can expect temperatures in the high-80’s too mid-90’s. It will be much cooler as always in California especially in the baseball locations. The Dew Points are on the rise from Texas up through most of the Eastern Coast and could hit the high-70’s to low-80’s in some spots. So keep an eye out because we have some potential for long balls tonight. We have giant green areas all over the Midwest near the Great Lakes region again today and in several spots from the Texas coast, up through the Virginia’s. Keep an eye out as lots of this could change by game time tonight. I was actually thinking of excluding this forecast altogether for this reason. But, use this as a heads up. For a later update tune into the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210 / XM 87) at 4 p.m. EST hosted by Jeff Mans and Ted Schuster. Ted will give you better weather updates during the show.

Cash Game Plays

We have one these situations tonight where there are actually several viable cash game plays depending on how risky of a cash game player you are. This is going to be one of those nights where no one particular player will be super high owned compared to the others at his price point. I would expect ownership percentages in cash games to be around 17-to-23 percent for the players in this section.

Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs

What is going on with Arrieta? Has he fizzled? I think he just may have needed a break. It worked for Jon Lester yesterday, why not Arrieta tonight? Right? Tonight Jake from State Farm gets a positive park shift despite popular belief pitching at home in Wrigley Field which is 28th in runs scored in MLB. At the time of writing this article he is a -155 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 7.0.  The Mets are striking out 22 percent of the time with a low .314 wOBA versus RHP on the season. On the road it stays around the same at .315 but they are ice cold batting .213 over the last 14 days. Arrieta has been abysmal as of late allowing 15 earned runs over his last three starts spanning 16 1/3 innings while striking out 14 batters. The reality is this, if he does not get it back on track today versus a struggling Mets team than it may be time to take him off the list of top aces. For now, he still has a 9.52 K/9, keeps the ball on the ground 55.4 percent of the time, and gets my call as the top cash game play of the night (and probably lowest owned), even if not my favorite.

Danger Zone

The current Mets are batting .268 (38-for-142) with seven HR (Curtis Granderson (3), Asdrubal Cabrera (2), Neil Walker, and Yoenis Cespedes), 24 RBI, and 33 strikeouts versus Jake from State Farm. Right now, at this early hour, the wind at Wrigley Field is projected to be blowing in from center at 9 mph. This changes frequently so do not hold me to it.

Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals

This is my favorite play of the night for cash games, GPPs, pretty much anything. Carlos Martinez gets a great park shift at home tonight in Busch Stadium which is 23rd in MLB in runs scored and is also a -195 favorite pitching in a game with a low expected run total of 8.0. It gets better. Tonight he gets to face the San Diego Padres who happen to be one of the worst offenses in MLB versus RHP. How bad? The Padres are striking out 23.4 percent of the time and carry a .293 wOBA and wRC+ of 84 versus RHP on the season, both of which are 29th in MLB. Although it seems they are picking things up batting .260 over the last 14 days they are still striking out 27 percent of the time in this span, facing a SP with a decent 7.63 K/9. Over his last two starts versus the Pirates at home and Brewers on the road he has a 3.00 ERA with 18 strikeouts over 12 innings. This is a pretty good recipe for success and I am all in on Martinez tonight for the savings.

Danger Zone

It is not a very big sample size so I am not putting a ton of stock in it, but, the current Padres roster is batting .324 (11-for-34) with one HR (Yangervis Solarte), three RBI, and six strikeouts versus Martinez. He does, however, have the highest ground ball rate on the slate at 60.7 percent which eases my mind a bit.

Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets

I suspect Noah Syndergaard will be the highest owned cash game player of the night. Despite facing a pretty tough Cubs team. Tonight Thor gets the same positive park shift and pitching environment that Jake Arrieta does just from the visitor’s side. The Cubs are striking out 22.5 percent of the time and have a dangerous .330 wOBA versus RHP on the season. They also can hit at home and have a .326 wOBA (which is just above my marginal line between good and bad) to show it. The thing is, Thor is not your average pitcher. Over his last two starts versus the same Cubs and Nationals at home he has a 3.09 ERA with 13 strikeouts over 11 2/3 innings. He is another ground ball pitcher and has a nice 10.90 K/9 and should have little trouble taming the Cubbies tonight in what should be a low scoring affair.

Danger Zone

In a small sample size (13-for-40) the current Cubs roster has zero HR, one RBI, and seven strikeouts versus Thor. Cha-Ching!

Somethings come better in pairs

Any of these plays could be used as a complimentary pitcher on a two-pitcher site or fall just on the borderline between cash and GPP on a one-pitcher site.

Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros

When you factor in salary versus recent production the one player that rises to the top in my eyes is Dallas Keuchel. Although he had a rough start he is firing on all cylinders right now. Tonight he gets a positive park shift pitching in the nice cool weather in Oakland. The Coliseum is 24th in runs scored in MLB and at the time of writing this article there is no Vegas line. I imagine he will be around a -140 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of around 8.5 (I am writing this at 10 a.m., let’s see how close I am). Although the Athletics are only striking out 17.5 percent of the time and have a decent .326 wOBA versus LHP, they are 26th in home wOBA at .304. Keuchel is averaging two earned runs per game over his last five starts and has 11 strikeouts over his last 13 innings with a 2.08 ERA (including striking out five over seven innings in his last start versus the very same A’s). Dallas also has a 7.80 K/9, 59.7 percent GB rate, and 4.80 ERA versus his 3.61 xFIP which is a great indicator of good things to come. For his price, he is the top option to save some money tonight while keeping the risk under control.

Danger Zone

We have plenty of BVP here with these teams playing each other often. The Athletics are batting .277 (48-for-173), with two HR (Danny Valencia), 13 RBI, and 26 strikeouts versus Keuchel. The A’s are however a little cold right now batting .245 over the last 14 days and Keuchel has an ERA of 3.03 pitching at the Coliseum since 2014.

Vince Velasquez, Philadelphia Phillies

For such a horrible team I sure feel like I am using their starting pitching in DFS a lot. I also prefer this play on FanDuel for $8,600 more than DraftKings at $9,700, with Keuchel only costing $8,200. Tonight Velasquez gets the best possible park shift you can get at home in Citizens Bank Park which is currently 30th in runs scored in MLB. He is also facing a Marlins team I do not find terribly intimidating. The Marlins are striking out 18.7 percent of the time with a low .316 wOBA versus RHP on the season. I realize they do not strikeout a lot but the opportunity is there when facing a pitcher with a 10.64 K/9 like Vince. They also are batting .255 over the last 14 days with a low wRC+ of 88. Velasquez since returning has been stellar. In his last two starts versus the Royals at home and Rockies at Coors Field he has an ERA of 3.00 with 13 strikeouts over 12 innings. I see no reason he cannot hook a few Marlins today and perhaps a few bucks for my wallet as well.

Danger Zone

We have very little BVP but what we do have is positive. The Marlins are batting .263 (10-for-38) with one HR (Christian Yelich), four RBI, and 13 strikeouts versus Velasquez. The thing to take away from this is the 13 strikeouts versus 38 plate appearances.

GPP Only

Basically, this is the section where you can hit DFS gold, or pan for hours just to find nothing but mud. There is much risk here but a great amount of reward if they come through.

Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh Pirates

Usually I do not like to take a pitcher coming back from the DL in his first start. The thing about Taillon is I really feel it was kind of a BS DL stint and he really was not that hurt. I am no doctor, but I am one hell of a BS sniffer. Not sure that sounds right.

Anyhow, Jameson Taillon gets a neutral park shift tonight at home in PNC Park with it being eighth in runs scored in MLB but 24th in HR allowed. He is also a -147 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8.0. Tonight he is facing the Milwaukee Brewers who although can show a LHP to the showers early, often have the opposite results versus RHP. The Brew-crew are striking out 25.6 percent of the time (1st in MLB) with a low .315 wOBA versus RHP on the season. It gets much better from here, they also only have a .304 road wOBA to go along with their whopping 27.1 percent strikeout rate (tops in MLB), pathetic .215 batting average (28th in MLB) and lowly wRC+ of 65 over the last 14 days. In his last start he had a good outing going six innings with six strikeouts while allowing one earned run versus the Mariners in Seattle on June 29. Taillon is a groundball pitcher who offers limited strikeout upside but he is cheap and the safest of the GPP plays I am throwing out tonight.

Danger Zone

We have no BVP but we do have the possibility of a pitch count here. I would well imagine if all goes well we can count on him for around 5-to-7 innings. Also LHB have a .360 wOBA versus Taillon which is a little scary, the good news, RHB only have a .290 wOBA.

Reynaldo Lopez, Washington Nationals *DK Value

Who is Reynaldo Lopez? Apparently he is one of the highest touted prospects you never heard of. To be honest, if it was not for my constant love of Bowman Chrome auto rookie cards, I probably would have no clue who he is. What we have here is the chance to get a pitcher who more than likely is going to give up four runs but maybe strikeout eight batters over five innings for the minimum. Do not get me wrong, I will more-than-likely fade him on FanDuel for $7,000 but I have plans for him at DraftKings for $4,000. That is cheaper than most of the position players in Coors Field tonight. His minor league numbers indicate a high three too low four ERA between Double-A and Triple-A, but his strikeout numbers are near a K/9 of eight. The Dodgers although red hot batting .298 over the last 14 days have a lot of RHB in the lineup right now outside of Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez, and Chase Utley. This means for the most part Lopez should get the advantage facing a RHB heavy lineup. He benefits from a great pitchers park with Nationals Park being 22nd in MLB in runs scored and is worth a flyer in a cheap GPP. I mean really? $4,000? You can build your own All-Star team.

Danger Zone

Well, he had nine strikeouts over 11 innings at Triple-A Syracuse prior to being called up. What does that mean? Nothing really, I am hoping that the Dodgers seeing him for the first time are unable to hit the kid, which sometimes happens. What also sometimes happens is young pitchers come up and get nervous giving up four runs before settling down. I hope this is not the case tonight, of course. So tough being a Dodgers fan who picks on them in DFS. The shame.

Brian Flynn, Kansas City Royals *DK and FD Extreme value

You want boom or bust? How about a LHP pitcher with a K/9 of nine facing an Indians team that struggles versus LHP? The Cleveland Indians are striking out 21.3 percent of the time with a low .308 wOBA versus LHP on the season. On the road they also struggle outside of progressive field with a .308 wOBA. They are however swinging quite the hot bat over the last 14 days batting .286 with a high wRC+ of 129. He gets a neutral park shift pitching in Kaufmann Stadium which is 3rd in runs scored in MLB but 24th in HR allowed. So who is Brian Flynn? As I mentioned he has a current K/9 of 9.0 to go along with his 2.94 ERA. Over his last 10 1/3 innings coming out of the bullpen he has 11 strikeouts with a 1.74 ERA. I realize that what a pitcher can do pitching two innings versus six innings is completely different but for the minimum salary across the industry why not throw $3 in the squeeze or moonshot?

Danger Zone

The first danger is how many innings do we get? He did however go five innings versus the Astros on June 24 striking out five batters while only allowing one earned run.

Jose Quintana just missed this article today facing a Mariners team striking out 25.9 percent of the time over the last 14 days batting a low .244. For the salary, I believe there is better options. But, you never know. I thought the same last night about Mike Leake.

PlayerTmHOppIPK/9BB/9HR/9BAASwStr%ERAxFIPWHIPBABIPGB%FB%GB/FBwOBA v LwOBA v R$FD$DK$Aces
Jake ArrietaCHIRNYM114.19.523.310.55.19711.9%2.683.391.09.25955.4%24.0%2.310.2890.229$10,600$12,100$7,400
Danny SalazarCLERKC104.210.143.70.77.20412.3%2.753.481.18.26750.4%31.5%1.60.2530.290$10,300$11,300$6,650
Noah SyndergaardNYMRCHI105.210.91.530.51.24316.5%2.562.421.08.33355.5%22.6%2.450.3140.233$10,100$11,700$7,400
Carlos MartinezSTLRSD107.17.633.020.59.22410.5%2.853.711.16.27060.7%21.8%2.780.3300.203$9,400$10,200$6,800
Aaron SanchezTORRARI118.17.832.810.76.2339.0%2.973.621.19.28157.8%20.8%2.770.3110.257$8900$9,900$6,300
Jose QuintanaCWSLSEA117.28.032.070.92.2379.1%3.213.831.11.28340.2%38.1%1.060.2820.303$8,600$10,900$6,500
Rick PorcelloBOSRSF1137.721.671.12.2558.2%3.663.821.17.29547.9%32.8%1.460.3200.346$8,600$8,300$6,100
Vince VelasquezPHIRMIA78.210.642.861.03.25013.3%3.323.421.27.32738.6%39.6%0.980.2460.296$8,600$9,700$6,500
Dallas KeuchelHOULOAK1207.82.71.13.27010.3%4.83.611.37.31559.7%19.9%30.2780.347$8,500$8,200$6,550
Scott KazmirLALWSH97.29.773.321.38.24111.0%4.523.941.32.29043.6%34.1%1.280.2770.339$8,400$7,600$6,550
Junior GuerraMILRPIT82.17.872.620.98.20911.9%3.063.921.07.24246.5%34.5%1.350.2830.277$8,300$10,400$6,150
Tyler ChatwoodCOLRTB95.25.553.290.56.2448.2%3.294.371.29.27459.5%21.6%2.750.2540.334$7,200$6,400$5,800
Jameson TaillonPITRMIL286.751.611.29.2867.2%3.863.771.25.31052.9%20.7%2.560.3600.290$7,200$8,800$6,350
Wade MileySEALCWS92.26.312.621.46.2929.4%5.444.411.45.31448.5%31.4%1.540.3170.366$7,100$5,200$6,000
Nathan EovaldiNYYRBAL98.27.392.741.73.26910.4%5.114.011.38.29451.7%27.5%1.880.3800.326$7,000$5,400$6,300
Tim LincecumLAARTEX23.27.984.181.52.36913.5%6.854.842.07.43048.1%23.5%2.050.3750.514$7,000$5,100$5,700
Jake PeavySFRBOS93.26.922.690.96.28711.2%5.094.671.45.32438.4%40.3%0.950.3780.339$6,900$4,500$5,900
Kyle LohseTEXRLAA55.43.63.6.3754.6%10.86.272.2.36828.6%57.1%0.500.5070.426$6,700$4,000$0
Tommy MiloneMINLDET41.16.092.831.52.3098.6%5.234.451.57.32852.9%25.7%2.060.3690.369$6,600$6,200$5,750
Vance WorleyBALRNYY476.512.870.77.2697.1%2.874.361.36.30650.7%27.7%1.830.3410.296$6,500$4,700$5,550
Blake SnellTBLCOL31.27.684.830.28.2668.3%3.74.791.58.32046.0%33.0%1.390.3460.293$6,200$5,000$5,650
Tyrell JenkinsATLRCIN144.54.51.29.2915.4%4.55.091.64.29259.2%20.4%2.90.3930.332$6,000$4,000$5,500
Colin ReaSDRSTL87.17.223.40.93.2597.0%4.954.731.43.29649.2%24.6%20.3280.333$5,700$5,900$5,700
Jose UrenaMIARPHI20.15.313.10.89.30611.7%7.535.31.77.31653.4%24.7%2.170.3090.404$5,500$4,000$0
Zack GodleyARIRTOR15.15.873.521.17.26711.0%5.284.731.5.28654.9%21.6%2.550.2510.405$5,300$4,900$5,600
Anibal SanchezDETRMIN82.27.734.141.85.2989.7%6.754.721.65.32542.7%38.0%1.120.3660.401$4,900$4,300$5,900
Brian FlynnKCLCLE26.18.542.730.68.20013.5%2.393.341.03.24356.3%25.4%2.220.2110.288$4,200$4,000$0

Good luck tonight! See you tomorrow.

Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com

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