I worked late last night. How late? We had a hardcore-punk show at my bar, and, of course, having grown up playing in punk and hardcore bands, and booking shows, anytime there is a show it is a reunion of old friends. And let me tell you, a few of my friends have proven themselves quite successful in the music scene. Anyhow, I am not going to lie, it was nice to hang out and talk about things besides lineups with my wife (and by this I mean me sitting there talking while she pretends to care).

Even though I had the itch to try and dance again, my days of doing windmills, hammers of Thor, snap-kicks, and all the other assorted ninja moves in the pit ended with onset of my degenerative arthritis. Some of my friends, though, still dance like they did when they were kids while pushing 40. Regardless of my lack of dance skills, I had a great time and got to bed around 2 a.m. after eating a half of a Whopper with cheese. What does all of this have to do with sports? Nothing, but hey, life isn’t always about sports. Something we will touch on tomorrow with my final article before the break.

So with a bunch of writing still ahead of me, and time running short, I bring you today’s Pitching Coach Article.

The Real Jerry Colvin weather report

Things look mild across the country temperature wise with precipitation scattered all over the map. The Northeast is a hot bed of green, otherwise the rest of the country looks OK at this time. Temps will be in the low 80’s from Texas running along the coast up to Washington, D.C. with the West Coast in the mid-to-high 60’s with the Northeast sporting similar temps. The Midwest looks pretty clear as well and it should be a beautiful day outside of my area for baseball. As always, it is early, and I am not a real weather man. But I did go to a hardcore show last night while driving by a Holiday Inn.

Day Slate

First off I did not include the DET-TOR game in this article because from what I can see there is only one slate that offers it today, and that is the “fools slate” on FanDuel, or, "all-day slate" to the laymen. I did, however, include the pitchers in the Excel sheet in case someone chooses to roll the dice.

With pretty much every No. 1 starter in MLB going yesterday, today has a bunch of No. 2’s. What else? The problem is, the No. 2's are all in matchups that scare the number two out of me. Although I am a huge fan of Nick Tropeano, Carlos Martinez, Matt Moore, and Adam Conley, I find them all in positions to get the proverbial crap kicked out of them today. They face tough teams in bad ball parks in games with high expected run totals. In GPPs they might be worth a flyer, but, even then, I am not going to recommend wasting your money on them today when we do have some better viable options.

Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox

With quite a few options to choose from on the day slate Jose Quintana is the player I find to be the best option in cash games and as your SP1 on a two-pitcher site. He is home today facing the third-worst team in MLB versus LHP in the Atlanta Braves. The Braves are striking out 20.3 percent of the time with a .300 wOBA (28th in MLB) and wRC+ of 75 versus LHP. On the road they only have a .291 wOBA (29th in MLB), a wRC+ of 77 (also 29th in MLB), and are batting .223 over the last seven days striking out 22.3 percent of time. If you see anything here that does not tell you to attack them then please let me know. Quintana gets a neutral park shift with U.S. Cellular Field coming in at 15th in MLB (tied with PNC Park) in runs scored and he is also a -158 favorite in the game with an expected run total of 7.5 (lowest on day slate). Over his last two starts he has 12 strikeouts over 14 innings with a 3.21 ERA facing the Astros on the road and Twins at home. He has an 8.06 K/9, surrenders few home runs (0.7 HR/9), and does not surrender many walks (a trait I like for when facing teams with lower strikeout rates). If someone told me to fade Quintana today I would smile and say, “No way, Jose”.

Danger Zone

In a small sample size, the Atlanta Braves are batting .282 (11-for-39) with one HR (Jeff Francoeur), one RBI, and a beautiful 13 strikeouts versus Quintana.

Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians

Basically at this point I am convinced by the results from this team that Terry Francona is going to go down as one of the greatest managers of all time. How good? I mean Theo Epstein good.

Danny Salazar is at home facing the Yankees today in Progressive Field which is second in MLB in runs scored, so the park shift is less than favorable. The Yankees are striking out 18.6 percent of the time with a .307 wOBA, and wRC+ of 88 versus RHP. Their road offense is also less than intimidating with a .293 wOBA (28th in MLB) and wRC+ of 79 (also 28th in MLB). Salazar is actually more dominant at home with a 2.05 home ERA versus his 2.66 road ERA, both of which are incredible. Over his last two starts versus the Braves on the road (the National League equivalent to the Yankees in my opinion) and mighty roaring Tigers at home he has 14 strikeouts over 12 2/3 innings with a 2.13 ERA. He is a -166 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8.5 (among the lower today) and with the upside available here even versus a strikeout stingy team like the Yankees, I love me some Salazar today.

Danger Zone

The current Yankees roster is batting .267 (12-for-45) with three HR (Brian McCann (2) and Brett Gardner), seven RBI, and nine strikeouts versus Salazar. He has an xFIP (3.45) over a full run higher than his ERA (2.36) which I find discerning along with his propensity to walk batters (4.0 BB/9 and 2.57 K/BB) which can lead to high pitch counts or lots of runs scored, both of which end your DFS day early. These factors are why he is behind Quintana today despite actually being the superior pitcher.

Lance McCullers, Houston Astros

If you have not noticed, for the most part, the Houston Astros' pitching staff has looked pretty good as of late. Today Lance McCullers is facing the pathetic Oakland Athletics at home in Minute Maid Park which is 25th in runs scored in MLB, so the park shift is favorable (why does saying that feel wrong?). He is also a heavy -194 favorite which is one of the highest on the slate and the game has an implied run total of 8.5 which is of the lower end today. Although the Athletics are only striking out 17.5 percent of the time versus RHP they do have a disgusting .302 wOBA and wRC+ of 88 to accompany it. They do hit better on the road but their home park is notoriously pitcher friendly (Oakland Coliseum is 28th in MLB in runs scored) so it stands to reason their offensive numbers should rise on the road. They also are only batting .233 over the last seven days and have a horrible wRC+ of 69. Although that is a number some people may find lucky in life when implied with wRC+ it is equally enticing. McCullers over his last two starts has looked absolutely incredible versus the Mariners and Angels at home striking out 16 batters over 12 2/3 innings while only allowing two earned runs and walking four. He keeps the ball on the ground 58.5 percent of the time with an 11.21 K/9 and incredible 0.2 HR/9. All signs point to McCullers having another stellar start today and if possible he would be my choice to pair with either of the two above on a two-pitcher site and is more than cash game viable on FanDuel.

Danger Zone

The Oakland Athletics are batting .268 (11-for-41) with no HR, three RBI, and 11 strikeouts versus McCullers. He also has a .382 BABIP which certainly raises an eyebrow.

Jake Peavy, San Francisco Giants

If you want to spend up on some big bats today then you are going to have to find a pitcher somewhere worth rolling the dice on for cheap. Besides the fact Jake Peavy is only $5,900 on DraftKings today, he also gets a great park shift at home in AT&T Park which is 18th in runs scored and 30th in HR allowed in MLB this season. The one problem: he is facing the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs (or D-Bags as I call them at home) are striking out 23.5 percent of the time with a .325 wOBA versus RHP on the season. You assume that most of this would be from playing at Chase Field, right? Wrong. On the road the Diamondbacks are actually playing better and have a .341 wOBA and nice wRC+ of 111, maybe it’s the airplane food? Either way, I have been riding Peavy all season at home as you know and for the most part with success. It is only going to be in the high 60’s today in Northern California and Peavy is the -142 favorite in a game with a lower expected run total of 8.0. He has a home 3.96 ERA and although he does not offer a ton of strikeout upside (6.95 K/9) and is Jake Peavy, if you can get 14 points on DraftKings today or 30 on FanDuel, you got a bargain, both of which I find doable from Peavy today. He is my favorite GPP as most weekends it seems on the day slate.

Danger Zone

The Arizona Diamondbacks are batting .312 (39-for-125) with four HR (Michael Bourn, Welington Castillo, Paul Goldschmidt, and David Peralta (who does not matter)), 12 RBI, and 25 strikeouts versus Peavy. This is a risky play no doubt, perhaps a foolish one, but one I will use today. But no more foolish than Matt Moore, Nick Tropeano, or Adam Conley.

If you were forced to pick another SP besides these four than I would look at Julio Teheran and if I had to go cheap I would settle for Tropeano (although I prefer Peavy still) if I had to.

PlayerTmHOppIPK/9BB/9HR/9BAASwStr%ERAxFIPWHIPBABIPGB%FB%GB/FBwOBA v LwOBA v R$FD$DK$Aces
Danny SalazarCLERNYY9910.273.730.73.19512.6%2.363.451.14.25849.6%32.1%1.550.2380.288$10,700$10,400$6,700
Jose QuintanaCWSLATL111.28.062.10.73.2379.2%3.063.841.12.29039.9%38.9%1.020.2300.301$9,300$10,600$6,500
Aaron SanchezTORRDET113.17.872.780.79.2319.1%2.943.561.18.27858.0%21.2%2.740.3070.258$9,200$10,200$6,300
Lance McCullersHOUROAK5311.214.920.17.26113.9%3.573.41.57.38258.5%17.0%3.430.3120.334$9,200$9,700$6,700
Carlos MartinezSTLRMIL102.17.042.810.62.22510.0%2.93.81.13.26360.1%22.0%2.730.3300.196$8,900$9,300$6,650
Adam ConleyMIALCIN93.28.363.270.77.24410.9%3.654.471.32.29242.4%36.3%1.170.3200.308$8,700$8,000$6,350
Rick PorcelloBOSRTB1067.811.781.1.2567.8%3.823.821.19.29848.9%31.5%1.550.2740.360$8,600$9,900$6,000
Julio TeheranATLRCWS112.28.391.841.2.19711.5%2.723.640.93.22442.9%39.6%1.080.2940.230$8,500$12,300$6,850
Robbie RayARILSF92.110.533.411.17.28311.4%4.783.611.55.36448.9%24.8%1.970.2940.365$7,500$7,900$5,850
Matt MooreTBLBOS1038.132.621.49.26311.4%4.544.191.31.29639.9%41.5%0.960.3040.336$7,400$6,100$6,100
Jake PeavySFRARI89.16.952.721.01.28311.4%5.144.631.43.31938.9%40.6%0.960.3830.302$7,100$7,000$5,800
Edinson VolquezKCRSEA105.173.330.85.2649.5%4.874.261.42.30254.9%24.7%2.220.2870.361$7,000$5,600$6,000
Wade MileySEALKC87.16.282.581.55.2849.4%5.364.431.4.30147.1%32.7%1.440.3180.340$7,000$5,500$5,850
CC SabathiaNYYLCLE82.27.623.480.65.24411.1%3.484.351.32.29149.2%34.3%1.430.3560.296$6,900$7,400$5,900
Nick TropeanoLAARBAL60.18.654.181.49.27112.9%3.284.611.51.31035.5%42.4%0.840.4100.404$6,900$4,200$5,700
Yovani GallardoBALRLAA38.16.574.461.41.2956.9%6.15.11.64.31141.0%34.4%1.190.4200.327$6,800$4,500$5,750
Kendall GravemanOAKRHOU86.26.023.121.25.2899.0%4.574.581.5.30954.4%25.6%2.120.3710.332$6,200$5,700$5,650
Chase AndersonMILRSTL826.83.071.87.2669.1%5.494.771.38.27438.9%38.1%1.020.2900.423$6,000$4,800$5,700
Matt BoydDETLTOR29.16.443.381.53.2748.5%6.444.81.47.29042.3%38.1%1.110.2230.363$5,800$5,200$5,550
John LambCINLMIA636.574.141.71.2858.5%5.434.881.56.29446.6%30.4%1.530.3530.374$5,600$4,700$5,700

Night Slate

Tonight, in my opinion, there is only one cash game play. So outside of that play, I am going to give you three possible GPPs or pitchers to pair with that cash game play.

Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (Weather concerns!)

I cannot believe it is already 8:30 a.m. and I am just on the night slate now. It has been a tough morning. Speaking of tough times, I just want to say, people love their pets. Ask Howard Bender, he is always posting pictures of his animals much like my background photo on Facebook is my cat lying on a Dodgers pillow. I find that people often underestimate the emotions people feel when they lose a pet. Especially a pet they have had for a long, long, long, time. Recently my best friend Brian Ambos lost his dog Harry. Here is a guy who each morning did his DFS research, seasonal leagues, and conversation with me on his computer with his trusty sidekick by his side. He is really sad so I just want you all to shoot him a Tweet today @BRI1053 and say, “Jerry says cheer up Scherz”. He will understand, and it may put a smile on his face. Sending a bro-hug his way.

R.I.P. Harry

Back to the real Scherz. Max Scherzer is on the road today at Citi Field facing a Mets team right off the bat who appear to be without Yoenis Cespedes. He also gets a great park shift pitching at Citi Field and is a -177 favorite in a game with an implied run total of 7.5, which is the lowest on the slate. The Mets are striking out 21.8 percent of the time with a .312 wOBA versus RHP this season. At home they have a .320 wOBA and have been red hot batting .302 over the last seven days. Something I fully expect to end today. Scherzer has been lights out as of late. In his last two starts versus the Brewers and same Mets at home (with Cespedes) he has 17 strikeouts over 13 1/3 innings with an 0.68 ERA and four walks. Boom! That is what is up, along with his 16.9 percent swinging strike rate (highest on slate). He also has a 0.68 ERA at Citi Field from 2013-2015. He is expensive, but he is the only pitcher I would use tonight in cash games and will have him for sure as my SP1 on a two-pitcher site.

Danger Zone

The BVP here today is more beautiful than my wife on our wedding day (a shameless plug in case she reads this). The Mets are batting .221 (66-for-298) with 12 HR (Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto (2) who is in the minors, Alejandro De Aza, Curtis Granderson (2), and Neil Waker (2)), 30 RBI, and a whopping 100 strikeouts. That is nearly a 30-percent strikeout rate. Cha-Ching!

Brandon McCarthy, Los Angeles Dodgers

The other player tonight who I love almost as much as the Scherz is Brandon McCarthy. The San Diego Padres are striking out 23.9 percent of the time with a .293 wOBA and wRC+ of 84 versus RHP. McCarthy gets a great park shift with Dodger Stadium coming in 29th in MLB in runs scored and is the heaviest favorite on the night slate at -200, pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8.0. In his debut start coming back from injury he pitched five innings of shutout baseball versus the Rockies at home with eight strikeouts and one walk. The Rockies are as bad on the road as the Padres are versus RHP so I fully expect similar results tonight out of McCarthy who keeps the ball on the ground and has a ton of strikeout upside. I find him a much better value on FanDuel tonight than DraftKIngs but would still try to pair him with Scherzer if at all possible. Even if you have to fade Coors Field. Did I just say that?

Danger Zone

The Padres are batting .295 (23-for-78) with three HR (Alexei Ramirez (2) and Wil Myers), 10 RBI, and 17 strikeouts versus McCarthy. I know these numbers look bad but keep in mind there is two Brandon McCarthy’s. The healthy one who is dominant and the banged up one who sucks. Right now, we have the healthy one, for today. Oh, crap, hope I didn’t jinx him. The Dodgers need him.

Logan Verrett, New York Mets (Weather Concerns!)

Although I fully expect Max Scherzer to get the win today versus the Mets I do not believe it is going to be a big one. I have a strong feeling this game is going to be a 1-0 or 2-0 affair until the starters are removed at least, and this is more from the Mets side. Max could strike out 18 in a complete game shutout. Prediction? Logan Verrett who at times shows flashes of greatness is more than capable of shutting down a Nationals offense that struggles versus RHP in a great pitcher’s park like Citi Field. The Nationals have a .320 wOBA and wRC+ of 96 versus RHP while only striking out 19.3 percent of the time. I find this slightly scary but more than manageable for the low price tag on FanDuel and minimum salary of $4,000 on DraftKings. Verrett has been coming out of the bullpen lately but over his last nine innings has a 4.00 ERA with only three strikeouts. Five of these innings were versus the same Nationals on the road where he only allowed two earned runs. If he can go five innings today with four strikeouts allowing two earned runs for $4,000 on DraftKings? I call that a victory.

Danger Zone

The Nationals are batting .214 (6-for-28) with one HR (Daniel Murphy), three RBI, and six strikeouts. What really concerns me is the reverse splits with RHB carrying a .421 wOBA versus Verrett on the season.

Tyler Anderson, Colorado Rockies

Here me out. First off, just because you have a game in Coors Field and Vegas decides it is going to be a high scoring affair does not mean it won’t be a dud. I believe that is the case today. When you have a power team in Coors Field or a team who mashes LHP or RHP particularly well than you avoid the pitching like the plague. General rule, you fade pitching in Coors Field altogether. Well, my theory is that when you have two teams that are generally horrible like the Phillies versus LHP and the Rockes versus everyone on the road you are set up for a dud of a game. Jered Eickhoff could easily shut down the Rockies today and I believe that Anderson can shut down the Phillies just as easy.  The Phillies are striking out 23.6 percent of the time with a low .273 wOBA (last in MLB) and wRC+ of 64 (also dead last in MLB) versus LHP. Anderson has pitched well in Coors Field in a limited sample size versus better teams sporting a 2.50 ERA with 20 strikeouts over 18 innings. He is the near minimum on the sites and has a 7.89 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 1.21 WHIP, and my vote as the best sneaky GPP play of the night.

Danger Zone

Coors Field, Coors Field, Coors Field.

PlayerTmHOppIPK/9BB/9HR/9BAASwStr%ERAxFIPWHIPBABIPGB%FB%GB/FBwOBA v LwOBA v R$FD$DK$Aces
Max ScherzerWSHRNYM120.211.572.311.57.19516.9%3.212.910.97.24337.0%44.1%0.840.3240.222$11,900$13,700$7,200
Jon LesterCHILPIT107.28.782.091.17.22211.2%2.683.331.05.26449.3%31.0%1.590.2600.286$10,200$10,300$6,900
Brandon McCarthyLARSD514.41.80.00.11815.3%0.001.110.60.22266.7%33.3%20.1110.157$7,900$9,600$6,550
Jerad EickhoffPHIRCOL103.27.92.261.13.25610.3%3.33.941.23.28644.9%33.1%1.360.3290.335$7,100$5,900$5,900
Luis PerdomoSDRLA598.083.361.53.35011.2%7.934.282.39659.3%17.7%3.350.3350.350$6,900$6,300$5,950
Ricky NolascoMINRTEX102.27.271.931.23.29210.1%5.263.981.36.32044.9%33.4%1.340.3280.353$6,400$5,100$5,700
Logan VerrettNYMRWSH49.16.23.651.64.2778.7%4.014.911.5.28546.8%32.3%1.450.3150.421$6,100$4,000$5,950
Tyler AndersonCOLLPHI29.27.881.520.91.26810.6%3.033.041.21.30764.8%18.2%3.560.2430.328$6,100$4,900$5,800
Kyle LohseTEXRMIN000000000000000$0$0$0

As always it’s the weekend so players will be rested although with a week off I do not think they should be.

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You can email me: therealjerrycolvin@yahoo.com

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Good luck today!