NBA DFS Position Coach: March 5, 2016

Let’s talk a little about winning. We focus so much on how to win we rarely provide any tips for those who do. The first thing I do when I have a big night is go to that nice little withdrawal option on my account. In my experience, more often than not when you have all that money in your bankroll you tend to play crazier succumbing to the relentless onslaught of bad advice from the little DFS devil on your shoulder. You know that little bastard who keeps telling you things like, “I know you hate the $25 Slam on FanDuel and think it is crap but, hey, you have a ton of money in your account so throw a few lineups in."

The result of this over a few days of getting kicked around is the loss of all that hardearned money you researched so hard to squirrel away. More often than not if you withdraw most of your winnings just leaving just enough to play your NORMAL bankroll for 10 days you will be more cautious with your money. People tend to be more apprehensive about making deposits than blowing bankrolls.

This week I have been trying to post my lineups and contests that I am playing on FanDuel and DraftKings on Twitter and Facebook. I noticed all too often I see social media flooded with all these winning lineups. Guys claiming they win every day but only show the lineup screenshots on the nights they win. If you follow enough people and have a life it looks like these guys win nightly. I am willing to bet though more often than not if you were to go to their Twitter page you would see time gaps in the photos. So that asks the question, what happened during the week they posted nothing? I have no shame in losing or going on losing streaks. If you think that you, or anyone else for that matter, will not or is not going to have them you are sadly mistaken. Just wait, baseball can be brutal in that respect at times.

My longest losing streak in the NBA this season I believe was six nights. Although I won a few bucks last season in DFS MLB it would have been a ton more if I had not gone on an absolutely killer 14-night losing streak. It seemed every night my batters would go 2-for-4 with two singles for 1.5-points on FanDuel. During these two weeks I watched what was a monster bankroll for me dwindle down to less than $100 before I pulled out. I had several nights during this time with a fluffy bankroll where the little DFS devil got to me and I went a little crazy. The biggest lie you tell yourself in DFS is the one where you assume because you lost four nights you have to win on the fifth so you should play heavier on that night. Let me tell you I had more than one night where my wife took my phone away. This is when I realized if I just left enough to play my usual $75-$100 bucks per night and withdrawn the rest, the result would have been the same in the end but I would have taken a nice chunk of change home as well. Why? Because I would have not listened to the Devil if the money was not there. Remember, you don’t go crazy playing in giant GPPs if you do not have the bankroll sitting in your account to tempt you.

The original schedule I printed out for my research only had seven games on it. Then this morning I noticed the Pacers were playing in Washington as well. How does a website miss an entire game? Something we would never do here at Fantasy Alarm.

So with a three-day winning streak followed by a two-day losing streak, I bring you today’s position coach article in an attempt to turn things around.

Point Guard

Strategy

We have a lot of choices at the point guard position with prices at all levels for lineup construction. This is actually a really easy night for anyone on FanDuel to roster a decent point guard stack. When you compare the cheaper points guards in great matchups and the stars in bad ones for my model's sake it flushes them all near even. My model actually gave me 10 point guards today all within a few points of each other. That tells me exactly how easy the point guard position is to roster tonight. So the strategy knowing this is to save some money to spend up at a weaker position tonight.

Players

Chris Paul tonight slightly edges out John Wall for one simple reason…consistency. Paul has scored over 40 fantasy ppg now in nine straight games hitting 50, 60, and 70 once each in this span while Wall's numbers tend to jump around a bit only scoring over 40 fantasy ppg in six out of his last 10. Paul is the only player I see who guarantees you 40 fantasy points at this position, making him, in my opinion, hard to not play. The Hawks are allowing the sixth fewest fantasy ppg to point guards but Paul managed to score 66.5 fantasy points on FanDuel versus the Celtics who allow the fewest fantasy ppg to point guards on Feb. 10 and then 54 fantasy points versus the Spurs on Feb. 18. I find it hard to be scared off by Atlanta looking at these numbers and Paul is the first player I am plugging into my cash games tonight. Just in case you missed it, Wall also hurt his ankle last night so possible value looming in that spot but if he plays he is a great GPP play.

I cannot believe I am going to say this but for once I am actually digging some Spurs tonight. Most nights I completely fade this team due to low expected point totals and blowout risk. Tonight the Kings-Spurs game has a nice 208 expected point total but the usual blowout risk with the Spurs being 13-point favorites.

Tony Parker scores high today in my model and for good reason. The Kings are allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to the one and in his last meeting versus the Kings on Feb. 24 he scored over 30 fantasy points. He is coming off back-to-back games where he failed to score 20 fantasy points which should draw the ownership off of him tonight with so many other options. In six out of his last eight games he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg hitting the 30 mark three times. His price is dirt cheap and he is a fine option to save some money tonight.

Ricky Rubio is a lot like Carmelo Anthony in the sense that he is a great player who I rarely use and to be honest probably will not tonight. The fact remains he deserves consideration tonight playing a Nets team allowing the fifth most fantasy ppg to point guards. When you add in the high 214 expected point total (second highest on slate) and close line with Minnesota being 4.5-point favorites with Rubio’s numbers as of late (scoring more than 30 fantasy ppg in five of his last 10 games) I see no way he is a bad play tonight and If you wanted to fade the high priced point guards you do have a slight chance of getting 40 fantasy points. A slight one.

Patrick Beverley is a player I rarely use. I get nervous anytime a point guard has a usage rate of 13.9 (second lowest on the slate) but you cannot ignore the fact he has a great matchup facing a Bulls team allowing the third most fantasy ppg to point guards. This game also has the highest expected point total at 215 with a close 1.5-point line (Houston being the favorite) being the cherry on top of this fantasy treat. Beverly has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in seven out of his last 10 games going over the 30 mark on two occasions. Sign me up because I already have him in my cash game lineup for tonight.

The Mack Daddy, or Shelvin Mack, if you read my articles is a player that I have already swore to ride or die with. So finally last night he goes off for over 30 fantasy points and, yes, I did have him in a few of my GPP lineups. The problem is, the night I finally got my dividends on the Mack I had it spoiled by Aaron Gordon. Well call me stubborn but as long as his usage rate stays high and his minutes stay consistent I still see no way you do not keep throwing him out there for the minimum price on FanDuel. The Mack Daddy as always has risk which is why I would not go betting the farm on him in cash games. He gets a neutral matchup tonight with the Pelicans allowing the 15^th most fantasy ppg or the 15^th fewest. Depending on whether you are a glass half empty or glass half full kind of guy…or girl.

Shooting Guard

Strategy

Much like the point guard position the top tier options are limited and we have several cheaper players with some upside scattered about the slate in decent matchups. You do not have to spend up tonight I believe to win but I highly recommend my first guy as the one player to build your lineup around.

Players

Fozzy the Beard, or James Harden, is the star I am constructing my cash game lineup around tonight. Although we have several viable shooting guards to choose from there is no other one that offers a 60 fantasy point upside. On an eight-game slate limited in superstar firepower, I see no way you fade him tonight in cash, GPP, even conversation for that matter. Harden has scored over 50 fantasy ppg in six of his last eight games hitting the 60 mark twice. The Bulls are allowing the 14^th fewest fantasy ppg to the two and Jimmy Butler is due back tonight but I suspect they still will be able to do little to defend my favorite NBA Muppet character.

Zach LaVine has one of the highest usage rates among starting shooting guards on the slate. As of late his price has stayed consistent on FanDuel staying around the $5K mark and his production has more than been ample as he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in nine out of his last 10 games and has been averaging closer to 27 fantasy ppg in his last five. He gets a great matchup with the Nets allowing the 20^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and as long as his price stays low and his production stays high I will be throwing him into my cash games. Almost a no brainer.

Monta Ellis has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in nine straight going over the 30 mark in five of them. Tonight he faces the Wizards in a game with a 208 expected point total and close three-point line with the Wizards being the favorites. The matchup is more than favorable with Washington surrendering the 24^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and he makes a fine compliment to Harden.

J.J. Redick has announced he will no longer be making any “Chronicles of Redick” movies. He simply stated the entire franchise is “Played out”.

With basketball at hand tonight he is playing the Hawks at home and benefits from the best defensive matchup from the Clippers side of things with the Atlanta allowing the 19^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. His production has been consistent lately scoring over 20 fantasy ppg in his last five while averaging 25 fantasy ppg in this span. For the price he makes a great option and even gets you a late bullet and is both cash and GPP viable.

Markel Brown is another player I have been riding in some cheap GPP the last week or so with little results until last night. Guess what, didn’t play him. I am not sure if I missed the boat or not here but his minutes and trust seem to be increasing and he has scored in the double-digits now five times in the last 10 games. He gets a great matchup with the Timberwolves allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and for the minimum price across the industry is more than worth a flyer in a GPP or two. Maybe you could pair him with the Mack Daddy?

Small Forward

Strategy

This is a position that has some value tonight but none without risk. The route to take, if at all possible, is to spend up at the position and balance it out with one of the safer cheap options. You could go the route to save at SF tonight but I do not recommend it.

Players

Kawhi Leonard for the price is player I am spending up on tonight. He has scored over 40 fantasy ppg now in four straight even hitting the 50 mark versus the Pelicans on Thursday night. The Kings are allowing the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to small forwards and, blowout or not, he still seems to produce steady fantasy numbers. I prefer him over LeBron James on a back-to-back with Kevin Love coming back tonight and Paul George who I do not see repeating his awesome performance last night in a bad matchup.

Trevor Ariza scores high in my model. The Bulls are horrible at defending everyone and the small forward position is no different where they rank 23^rd. In six of his last 10 games Ariza has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg going over 40 mark versus the Suns on Feb. 19 and the Bucks on Feb 29. His production as of late has been stellar and he is a safe cash game and GPP play tonight.

Kent Bazemore, who I had completely given up on, has returned to the forefront of my interest. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in four straight now while his price remains only $4,900 on FanDuel. He is averaging over 26 fantasy ppg in this stretch and tonight faces a Clippers team who defends SFs, well allowing the 11^th fewest fantasy ppg to the position but he benefits from one of the better matchups from the Hawks side of things. A little riskier in a bad matchup but a great GPP play tonight.

With the Nets-Timberwolves game slated to be a shootout with a high 214 expected point total I almost find it necessary to get some bench exposure to this game. I find Andrew Wiggins a little risky and expensive for my taste but I do have a great feeling about Shabazz Muhammad tonight. He is playing around 25 minutes per game over the last four while averaging over 20 fantasy ppg. The Nets are allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and if Muhammad can get 25-to-30 minutes tonight he is a player who has the upside to get near 30 fantasy points.

Bogdan Bogdanovic. Yeah, the same story here. Plenty of minutes and averaging over 25 fantasy ppg in his last three. The matchup could be better with the Timberwolves allowing the 18^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards but the sheer volume of minutes played makes him well worth the $4,000 on FanDuel in a GPP tonight, especially if he gets hot.

Power Forward

Strategy

I find this position the hardest tonight and one where you could get away without spending up too much. I still feel you should at least roster one of the two first players below tonight. I am fading Anthony Davis facing Utah, who are allowing the fewest fantasy ppg to power forwards with better matchups for cheaper players who can produce the recent numbers Davis has put up over his last four.

Players

For the third time today and the first time in my Position Coach Article history I am featuring a third player from the Spurs. LaMarcus Aldridge is averaging around 40 fantasy ppg over his last three and tonight faces a Kings team allowing the second most fantasy ppg to power forwards. He has the second highest usage rate on the slate after Anthony Davis and his price is fair. I would either use him or Leonard but not both if you can help it. I never like to put to many Spurs eggs in one basket.

Kevin Love is the man tonight I am rostering in cash games. He took a night off for rest last night as apparently he was exhausted. Sorry Jeff Mans, I need to take a few days off, tell the NBA to hold on, I am exhausted. Can you imagine? Love in five of his last eight games has scored over 30 fantasy ppg going over the 40 mark versus the Thunder on Feb 21 and the Raptors on Feb 26. I always subscribe to the “ride the hot hand” theory and you never know, if they rested Love last night they might give the King a night off as well since he looks exhausted.

Gorgui Dieng continues to steadily produce on a nightly basis. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in six of his last 10 games and plays heavy minutes on a nightly basis averaging well over 30. The matchup could be better with the Nets allowing the 18^th most fantasy ppg to the power forward position but that is more than enough for me. He is a great way to tap into the high expected point total up for grabs. Just be careful not to overexpose yourself to the Timberwolves side of things tonight. They all look good.

Bobby Portis continues to be a viable punt play at the power forward position. Taj Gibson is reportedly playing tonight so that bumps him down slightly, but not much. He is playing over 25 minutes per game over the last three and has scored 34.2, 26.4, and 22.7 fantasy points on FanDuel versus the Trail Blazers, Heat, and Raptors. Tonight he would be facing a Rockets team allowing the most fantasy ppg to the power forward position and I currently have him paired with Love on FanDuel in my cash game lineup.

If you have low expectations and by that I mean you hope to get maybe 22 fantasy points than Donatas Motiejunas is back in the starting lineup but still increasing his minutes load. He played 22 minutes versus the Pelicans on Feb. 2 where he scored 13.6 fantasy points. His court time appears to be increasing steadily and tonight facing a Bulls team allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards I see a real shot at some value if he gets to play 25 minutes. For the minimum salary across the industry he could be the play of the night or get you 4.7 fantasy points. A stars and scrubs candidate tonight at best.

Center

Strategy

I believe you spend up tonight at center if at all possible. We have several great options and, to be honest, I am torn between three centers tonight for my cash games and one cheap guy who is very appealing. As tip off approaches I am sure something will transpire to gravitate me to the right one.

Players

So Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan, and Karl-Anthony Towns currently have me in a stranglehold. I am seriously torn on which one to use as they are all similar in price.

Karl-Anthony Towns is facing a Nets team tonight allowing the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to centers and I believe Towns has the highest ceiling of the three in my tie. In five of his last 10 games he has scored over 40 fantasy ppg hitting the 50 mark versus the Raptors, Celtics, and Pelicans. He is my favorite at the moment but I like most of the Timberwolves tonight and surely will not use more than two starters and one bench player. But who?

Dwight Howard is the safest play in my opinion but offers less upside than Towns. He is averaging over 34 fantasy ppg and is the cheapest of the three. Tonight he would face a Bulls team that defends the frontcourt miserably allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to centers and Howard is a player who can easily take advantage of this matchup. In the end it will all come down to price.

DeAndre Jordan has the whole “late bullet” thing going tonight which always intrigues me. I cannot help but find a way to roster at least one guy from the late game as I feel I have lost when the games end and my lineup is done. I have felt helpless on more than one occasion as I slipped far down the pay scale during the last game. Call it personal but I love to have a gun in that last fight. It also helps that Jordan although inconsistent has the best matchup for the Clippers tonight with the Hawks allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to the center position. This is something I look for in games, the one guy with a good matchup. It makes me feel he might get fed the ball more.

Ian Mahinmi who I roster a lot is intriguing to me this evening. Call it a hunch but I just feel he is red hot and his price is dirt low which usually opens the door for good things to happen. Mahinmi has scored over 30 fantasy points in back-to-back games, a trend I say continues tonight.

Core Players

Cash core: Chris Paul, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, and Kevin Love

GPP core: John Wall, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Love, and Karl-Anthony Towns.

Good luck.

Follow me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73

GO DODGERS!