NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: December 4, 2015

So it is now after 11 a.m. and I am just getting to writing now. For some reason it took me about three hours to fully research tonight’s slate and get it all mapped out. I have been tinkering with my model. What is my model? It is a series of stats compiled to give me one total number that I can use as a reflective score to flush out the plays that should exceed expected value. This does not mean in the end Patrick Beverley will put up a bigger score than Stephen Curry, it means he will give you a better return on what you are spending relative to what you get back. I know this may sound confusing but it is my process and why I get paid to write this article, I assume. Just a little insight to my process. Do not forget the most important part is common sense. I am so far behind so let’s get going.

If you ever have any question hit me up on Twitter @geraldcolvin73. Just ask some of our other subscribers, I will help you. Let’s cash some lineups.

Point Guard

The Phoenix-Washington game has the highest expected point total of the evening at 212. It is also slated to be a close game with the Wizards being one-point favorites. You combine these and this game instantly becomes the jumping point to roster construction. You have starters that should see plenty of minutes and the ever hopeful chance of striking fantasy gold in the form of overtime. We are also lucky the best PG on the board today is in this one.

John Wall has been playing lights out as of late. He has had back-to-back double-doubles scoring over 30 points in each game. During this two-game run he has scored 117.8 points on FanDuel. Those are Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, and Damian Lillard type numbers for a low salary of $9,000 this evening. With the Suns allowing 25.1 ppg to the PG position I see no choice but to use him in cash games tonight.

The other guy I feel you have to capitalize on for the price is Jeff Teague. The Hawks are playing the Lakers. I make no effort to hide the fact that the Lakers are always fun to pick on. I would have grown much fatter in middle school if the Lakers were my classmates. For no other reason than I would have picked on them constantly. Like now. Teague is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg to compliment his 16.7 on the season. He also has scored more than 30 fantasy points in five of the last six games for the low price of $6,900 on FanDuel. Tonight facing a Lakers team allowing the most fantasy points in the NBA to point guards makes him the guy I am using alongside Wall tonight in cash games.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have a great matchup tonight facing a Pelicans team allowing the 27^th most fantasy points overall. This game also has a high expected point total of 207.5 with the Cavs being five-point favorites. For the price Mo Williams is more than a viable play tonight. Williams has put up double-digits in three out of four games and usually manages to hit the 20 fantasy point mark. I think he has a real shot at like 25 to 27 tonight and for $5,700 in GPP he is worth a shot.

I hate taking players on the Dallas Mavericks. For some reason the Mavs and the Spurs are my fantasy nemesis. If I take a Mavs player he puts up a stinker and then puts up a great game the next day after I am so disgusted I pass over him. I will, however, go back and make another wish at that well tonight with Deron Williams. Not only are the Rockets allowing 21.1 ppg to point guards they are also allowing the 24^th most fantasy points as well. He scored 30 points the last time out versus the Trailblazers and could get close to that again tonight.

Jordan Clarkson in the midst of a terrible Lakers organization has managed to get a little NBA cred this season. He has scored nearly 20 ppg in four straight and more than 28 fantasy ppg in four straight. FanDuel as always has him in the PG slot tonight even though he is actually playing in the two now which opens up a little extra value. He has 40 fantasy point upside facing a Hawks team allowing 21 ppg to shooting guards for $6100.

Depending on what develops later Raymond Felton, Matthew Dellavedova, and Patrick Beverley could all be viable punt plays for cheap.

Shooting Guard

This position, as always, seems rather thin of great players. On a small six-game slate you cannot deny James Harden the spot as the top dog. He is averaging over 48 fantasy ppg and has hit the 50 mark twice and the 60 mark once in the last six games. He is the Rockets' main go-to guy every night and there is little doubt he will be the top performer at the position on the evening.

Bradley Beal has scored more than 38 fantasy points in two of the last three games. The Phoenix Suns are allowing 21.6 ppg to shooting guards in a game slated to be a shootout tonight. With Beal averaging over 18 ppg with middle of the road stats across the board he provides plenty of upside tonight.

Eric Bledsoe is playing at the PG position but is still listed at SG on FanDuel. I still have a bad taste in my mouth from the zero I got a few Mondays ago but I am slowly forgiving him. He has scored more than 30 fantasy points in six straight games eclipsing the 40 point mark twice. Bledsoe is averaging over 22 points, six assists, three rebounds, and over 37 fantasy ppg. In case you haven’t noticed those are good numbers at the SG position. If you do not want to pay for Harden then Bledsoe is the next best guy.

One of the guys I plan on having exposure to in some way or another tonight is Arron Afflalo. He put up 31 points on Sunday night versus the Rockets and tonight is facing a Brooklyn team allowing the 23^rd most fantasy ppg and 22.1 ppg to shooting guards on the season. In the last two games combined Afflalo has scored more than 60 fantasy points and should do well tonight for peanuts.

The other guy on the cheap tonight I will find a way to get some of is J.R. Smith. He is actually the top guy in model tonight at this position. He has scored more than 25 fantasy points in four of the last five games and tonight is facing a Pelicans team allowing 21 ppg and the 28^th most fantasy points to the SG position. Have to love those odds. He is a great play tonight in both cash and GPP play.

Small Forward

Well here is a surprise. The king LeBron James is playing lights out. As expected. He has three double-doubles in the last five games and is averaging over 44 fantasy ppg. The Pelicans are a horrible team defensively allowing the 27^th most fantasy points overall this season and the king should claim his taxes on all of it. If you are paying he is playing. He certainly is the only SF with 50 point upside.

Carmelo Anthony is the greatest player I rarely take. Most nights, and more than likely tonight as well, I find other options but he is always at the top of my list. He just seems to fall in the price range where I would rather spend up or spend down. His price point always seems undoable for me. The Nets are allowing however the 24^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards and Anthony is averaging over 35 fantasy ppg. This is usually a good combo. His price is at $8,300 and in this matchup tonight seems more than fair and I really am going to try and use him depending on what other Knicks I go with.

Otto Porter pissed me off so bad the other night scoring 13.7 fantasy points on FanDuel that I told the girls Otter Pops were no longer allowed in my house. Porter scores high today in my rankings so I am going to give him another shot. Maybe the Otter Pops too depending on tonight’s outcome. He has laid back to back stinkers on me putting up less than 30 fantasy points in two games combined. The Suns are allowing the 28^th most fantasy ppg to the SF position and if Porter is going to have a bounce back game I cannot imagine a much better scenario. He does have that high 20-point to low 30-point upside and has shown it in the past.

T.J. Warren has seen decreased minutes off the bench the last two games but finds himself in a great spot to score fantasy gold for cheap tonight. In both games he has played more than 30 minutes he has scored more than 35 fantasy points. He makes a great GPP play tonight facing a Washington team allowing 24.4 ppg to small forwards. He just needs some time.

Power Forward

So here I am at 12:43 p.m. and I am just getting to the PF section. Sorry guys. I had several issues at my bar that needed resolving this morning that came up leaving me later than normal.

Anyhow the guy I am using without a doubt tonight in cash games and also ranks the highest in my model is Dirk Nowitzki. This game is just close enough to pretty much dismiss the blowout factor and Dirk is averaging more than 30 fantasy ppg. He has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in four out of five with one game over 40. He has two double-doubles in the last five games and is coming off a 28-point performance versus Portland on Tuesday. With Houston allowing 24.3 ppg and the most fantasy ppg in the NBA to power forwards I am all in on Nowitzki.

Coming in right behind Nowitzki is Kevin Love. He is averaging over 36 fantasy ppg with 19 points and 11 rebounds. He has two double-doubles in the last five games including a game where he scored more than 30 points. He should feast tonight against a defensively inept Pelicans team.

If you want to save and still get some huge upside then Tristan Thompson is the answer. He is averaging almost 30 minutes off the bench and putting up double-digit rebounds nightly. He has scored more than 25 fantasy points in four out of the last seven and should again tonight for $5,500 on FanDuel.

Markieff Morris is questionable with a knee injury for tonight’s game opening the door for another night of Jon Leuer getting the start. On Wednesday night Leuer scored over 40 fantasy points in a spot start and when given the minutes continues to put up numbers. For the low price across the industry he becomes a must play if getting the start facing a Washington team allowing 21.9 ppg to power forwards.

Paul Millsap is a guy you cannot leave off this list facing a Lakers team allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards. He also is averaging over 18 points and nine rebounds per game and has three double-doubles in the last five games. His price is high but so is his production. If you can afford him, play him with Dirk.

Center

Al Horford continues to be one of the top centers in the NBA. He has two double-doubles in the last five games. The Lakers are horrible and cannot stop anyone making Horford the premiere play at the center position. I will be using him tonight in cash games hoping for at least 35 fantasy points. Which, by the way, is more than possible.

Andre Drummond if you still have enough money left is the guy to spend up on tonight. Well, any night for that matter that he is playing. He is averaging over 44 fantasy ppg and faces a Milwaukee team allowing 21.4 ppg to centers. He has posted a double-double in three straight games and should again tonight. But, that is why he is so expensive. A safe play in any format.

We have several cheap options tonight at center all for $5,000 or under on FanDuel. Roy Hibbert while certainly not putting out opposing teams lights is steadily providing more than 20 fantasy ppg. His average is 22 but keep in mind he does lay duds. Four times in the last 10 games to be exact. With the Hawks allowing the 23^rd most fantasy ppg he has a better chance of this being one of those 25 fantasy point performances.

Both Clint Capela and Robin Lopez rank similar today in my model. Although Capela seems to have more upside and is safer scoring over 30 fantasy points twice in the last six games Lopez has hit the thirty mark once in the last four games. Capela gets a less than favorable matchup tonight as Dallas is allowing only 18.8 ppg to centers while Lopez gets the Nets who are allowing the 24^th most fantasy points and 21 ppg to centers. Depending on how much you want to save they are both decent plays.

Well that is it for tonight. Good luck.