While many remain averse to advanced analytics, being able to use them to identify potential players to target or those due to bounce back can provide an edge in drafts or auctions. Sites like Fangraphs and Statcast enable those willing to put in the research to recognize diamonds in the rough, post-hype breakouts or positive migration to the mean. Without further ado, here are hitters of interest by position with some intriguing names to monitor this spring and in the season ahead. Please note, each position required different parameters which will be highlighted prior to each chart.
For the batters, maximum exit velocity reflects the 2020 season whereas the home run per fly ball percentage and batted ball events tracked occurred from the second half of 2019 through 2020.
Catcher
- Maximum Exit Velocity 108 MPH or higher, HR/FB% of 16 or better, at least 15 batted ball events (BBE) with a Launch Angle (LA) between 20-to-35 degrees, a barrel and exit velocity of 97 MPH or higher
Player | Maximum EV | HR/FB% | BBE |
117.5 MPH | 24.4 | 13 | |
110.5 MPH | 17.5 | 16 | |
110.4 MPH | 25.6 | 14 | |
109.8 MPH | 29 | 19 | |
Travis d’Arnaud | 109.7 MPH | 20.5 | 13 |
109.5 MPH | 20 | 17 | |
108.8 MPH | 19 | 17 |
Before dismissing Sanchez in drafts, a spike in maximum exit velocity signalled a change in José Abreu , so if the Yankees backstop stays healthy, he may generate gaudy power numbers in a deep lineup. Just account for the chance he hits .235 or lower. Alfaro showed up to Marlins camp hoping to re-establish himself as the starting backstop. His ballpark does him no favors but there's a chance for a rebound here. Same goes for Garver. Small sample sizes can be misleading.
Many rely on a name when targeting catchers, like Yadier Molina . However, two players just missed the list above but drift in drafts:
- Molina 2H 2019-through-2020: 84 games, 332 plate appearances, 33 runs, ten home runs, 37 RBI, two stolen bases; .274/.329/.406, 9 BBE from the chart above
- Yan Gomes 2H 2019-through-2020: 72 games, 279 plate appearances, 36 runs, 13 home runs, 36 RBI, three stolen bases; .258/.326/.484, 17 BBE's, 16 HR/FB%
- Wilson Ramos 2H 2019-through-2020: 108 games, 30 runs, ten home runs, 47 RBI, stolen base; .279/.332/.411, 12 BBE's, 110.1 MPH maximum exit velocity
In a different exercise, here's Alfaro versus Willson Contreras :
- Contreras 2H 2019-through-2020: 85 games, 332 plate appearances, 53 runs, 13 home runs, 38 RBI, one stolen base; .241/.331/.431, 18.6 HR/FB%
- Alfaro 2H 2019-through-2020: 93 games, 316 plate appearances, 32 runs, 11 home runs, 43 RBI, five stolen bases; .241/.291/.390, 20 HR/FB%
First Base
- Maximum Exit Velocity 111 MPH or higher, HR/FB% of 17 or better, 15 BBE's with LA of 20-to-35, 97 MPH EV and a barrel
Player | Maximum EV | HR/FB% | BBE |
118.4 MPH | 27.7 | 29 | |
115.8 MPH | 37.8 | 19 | |
114.2 MPH | 18.8 | 16 | |
114 MPH | 25.2 | 18 | |
112 MPH | 20.9 | 24 | |
CJ Cron | 112 MPH | 21.4 | 15 |
111.7 MPH | 28 | 26 | |
111.3 MPH | 17.4 | 34 |
A full season of Cron in Colorado would do wonders for someone like me who hyped him all last year. Keep tabs on Hosmer's progression against southpaws. If he continues to struggle, he could hit his way into a platoon in San Diego. Rebound alert for Bell in Washington, a ballpark and lineup which should reinvigorate his dormant bat from 2020.
Many may sleep on Evan White but he just missed the list with only 13 BBE's but only with 2020 for his sample. White owned a 112.8 MPH maximum exit velocity and a 19.5 home run per fly ball percentage last year. Bellinger also just missed the list due to his maximum exit velocity but racked up an 18.8 home run per fly ball rate and 34 BBE's. If his shoulder looks healthy in spring training games, look out.
While many pined for Nate Lowe to get more chances in Tampa Bay, he heads to Texas with a 28.1 home run per fly ball percentage but only eight batted ball events described above. Can his power overcome the new ballpark?
Second Base
- Maximum Exit Velocity 109 MPH or higher, HR/FB% of 14 or better, 13 BBE's with an LA between 20-to-35 degrees, EV of 97 MPH or higher and a barrel
Player | Maximum EV | HR/FB% | BBE |
114.4 MPH | 21.3 | 13 | |
111.7 MPH | 14.8 | 22 | |
111.4 MPH | 24.2 | 19 | |
110.6 MPH | 21.8 | 29 | |
110.2 MPH | 23.8 | 33 | |
109.7 MPH | 32.9 | 23 | |
109.6 MPH | 16.8 | 19 | |
109.5 MPH | 25 | 23 |
Two personal favorites if punting second base show up above, Starlin Castro and Jonathan Schoop . Each could provide sneaky pop while hitting in the heart of the lineup. Can Hiura improve on elevated fastballs? Check out his player profile to find out. While many focus on Cavan Biggio at an inflated draft cost, here's a less expensive version who may be playing center field in Colorado:
- Garrett Hampson 2H 2019-through-2020: 114 games, 372 plate appearances, 48 runs, 12 home runs, 30 RBI, 17 stolen bases; .257/.318/.423
Let others view the surface statistics by Jose Altuve last year and then peruse his postseason power surge. Altuve owns 28 BBE's referenced above since the second half of 2019 along with a 21.8 HR/FB percentage.
Last, but not least, Kolten Wong represents a less expensive version of Whit Merrifield :
- Merrifield 2H 2019-through-2020: 131 games, 586 plate appearances, 81 runs, 14 home runs, 60 RBI, 19 stolen bases; .291/.333/.430
- Wong 2H 2019-through-2020: 115 games, 438 plate appearances, 53 runs, five home runs, 40 RBI, 15 stolen bases; .305/.381/.411
Shortstop
- Maximum Exit Velocity of 110 MPH or higher, HR/FB% of 17 or better, 13 BBE's with an LA between 20-to-35 degrees, 97 MPH EV and a barrel
Player | Maximum EV | HR/FB% | BBE |
Javy Baez | 116 MPH | 18.3 | 13 |
113.4 MPH | 31.3 | 29 | |
113.1 MPH | 18.1 | 32 | |
112.5 MPH | 17.8 | 21 | |
111.2 MPH | 16 | 25 | |
110.2 MPH | 17.6 | 13 |
The Cubs shortstop attributed part of his struggles to no in-game video accessibility last year. This returns this season and he's playing for a contract. Baez may go all out. Tatis Jr. and Seager battle for first in the National League West and potentially the MVP award in 2021. Turner the burner gets targeted for speed but his power continues to trend up. Bounce back season for Gleyber, book it.
As for a name who flies way below the radar, Willy Adames . He just missed the list above due to only a 109.1 MPH maximum exit velocity with a home run per fly ball rate of 20 percent and 22 BBE's. While Trevor Story remains in the first round despite trade rumors, could a later round pivot make sense if taking a pitcher or first baseman?
- Trevor Story 2H 2019-through-2020: 127 games, 566 plate appearances, 84 runs, 27 home runs, 63 RBI, 26 stolen bases; .293/.362/.541, 109 MPH max EV, 16.8 HR/FB%, 23 BBE's
- Marcus Semien 2H 2019-through-2020: 123 games, 559 plate appearances, 90 runs, 26 home runs, 67 RBI, nine stolen bases; .269/.358/.515, 108 MPH max EV, 15 HR/FB%, 33 BBE's
No one wants Amed Rosario this season but he could add outfield to his eligibility and owns a .297/.325/.425 slash over 116 games spanning 446 plate appearances since the second half of 2019 with ten home runs along with nine stolen bases. He's free in most drafts.
Third Base
- Maximum Exit Velocity 110 MPH or higher, 15 HR/FB% or better, 15 BBE's with an LA of 20-to-35 degrees, an EV of at least 97 MPH and a barrel
Player | Maximum EV | HR/FB% | BBE |
116.7 MPH | 18.2 | 32 | |
115.9 MPH | 19.8 | 30 | |
115.7 MPH | 17.5 | 28 | |
114.3 MPH | 22 | 19 | |
111.5 MPH | 15.5 | 25 | |
111.4 MPH | 31 | 42 | |
Gio Urhela | 111 MPH | 19.8 | 17 |
110.8 MPH | 28.4 | 24 |
After leaving most draft boards in the second round last year, a disappointing 2020 depresses Devers’ average draft position entering 2021. Overlooking him may be a mistake. Vlad Guerrero Jr. missed the list due to a 14.2 home run per fly ball rate and his launch angle needs to rise above 4.2 percent if he's to cash in on his newfound fitness. Ground balls at 100 MPH do not go over the fence.
COVID affected both Yoán Moncada and Hunter Dozier last year. Each one looks to rebound in 2021. No one wants to take Kyle Seager , but he's produced 28 BBE's since the start of the second half in 2019 with 26 home runs and 85 RBI in 128 contests.
Outfield and Utility
- Maximum Exit Velocity of 110 MPH or higher, HR/FB% of 20 or better, 25 or more BBE with an LA between 20-to-35 degrees, EV at least 97 MPH and a barrel
Player | Maximum EV | HR/FB% | BBE |
115.9 MPH | 33.3 | 33 | |
115.6 MPH | 23.9 | 34 | |
114.9 MPH | 26.5 | 32 | |
114.8 MPH | 30.6 | 36 | |
114.7 MPH | 21.9 | 26 | |
114.7 MPH | 26.2 | 40 | |
114 MPH | 28.9 | 34 | |
114.4 MPH | 22.4 | 29 | |
114.4 MPH | 36.9 | 38 | |
113.6 MPH | 28.4 | 35 | |
113.3 MPH | 26.4 | 40 | |
113.1 MPH | 32.9 | 26 | |
113.1 MPH | 33.9 | 19 | |
112.9 MPH | 25.2 | 29 |
While many intriguing names populate the last hitter chart, here's who just missed:
- Nick Castellanos - 108.5 MPH maximum exit velocity, 22.2 HR/FB%, 47 BBE
- Kole Calhoun - 109 MPH maximum exit velocity, 27.5 HR/FB%, 27 BBE
- Ian Happ - 109.1 MPH maximum exit velocity, 26.7 HR/FB%, 26 BBE
- J.D. Martinez - 110.7 MPH maximum exit velocity, 19.5 HR/FB%, 34 BBE
Also of interest, a healthy Austin Meadows , a focused Christian Yelich due to pre-game video once again available in 2021, and Aaron Hicks hitting in the powerful Yankees lineup. Now it's time to view some pitching charts.
Starting Pitchers
After digging into so much data, these lists changed around five times. First, a chart displaying all the starting pitchers meeting the following criteria:
- Strikeouts minus walks percentage (K-BB%) at least 21 percent and a swinging strike percentage (SwStr%) of 13 percent or higher and 5.7 innings averaged since the second half of 2019 through and including 2020
Pitcher | K-BB% | SwStr% | IP per start |
29.5 | 18.6 | 6.2 | |
33.5 | 16.8 | 6.5 | |
26.6 | 16.4 | 6.2 | |
21.9 | 16.4 | 6 | |
28.5 | 15.1 | 7.3 | |
25 | 14.8 | 5.8 | |
31.2 | 14.7 | 6.3 | |
23.6 | 13.5 | 5.9 | |
21.2 | 13.3 | 6.1 | |
24.7 | 13.2 | 6.2 |
Just missing the cut includes:
- Kenta Maeda - 25.2 K-BB%, 15.6 SwStr%, 5.4 innings per start
- Max Scherzer - 25.6 K-BB%, 14.6 SwStr%, 5.5 innings per start
- Dinelson Lamet - 25.6 K-BB%, 14.3 SwStr%, 5.5 innings per start
- James Paxton - 21.6 K-BB%, 14 SwStr%, 5 innings per start
- Joe Musgrove - 20.8 K-BB%, 13.4 SwStr%, 5.3 innings per start
- Patrick Corbin - 17 K-BB%, 13.5 SwStr%, 5.9 innings per start
- Aaron Nola - 21.3 K-BB%, 12.9 SwStr%, 6 innings per start
- Dylan Bundy - 16.6 K-BB%, 12.7 SwStr%, 5.7 innings per start
- Lance Lynn - 20.4 K-BB%, 12.6 SwStr%, 6.3 innings per start
- Brandon Woodruff - 24.4 K-BB%, 12.6 SwStr%, 5.1 innings per start
- Nathan Eovaldi - 17.6 K-BB%, 12.6 SwStr%, 4.8 innings per start
- Zac Gallen - 18.5 K-BB%, 12.6 SwStr%, 5.8 innings per start
Potential late-round dart throws worth a gamble not listed: Michael Pineda , Andrew Heaney and Charlie Morton . At risk compared to draft capital: Walker Buehler and Stephen Strasburg .
Transitioning to Statcast, here's our next grouping:
- Ground ball percentage (GB%) at least 45 percent, whiff percentage of 24 or better and an expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) less than .300
Pitcher | GB% | Whiff% | xwOBA |
60.2 | 24.4 | .290 | |
58.4 | 32.8 | .260 | |
53.7 | 24.3 | .296 | |
53.6 | 25.6 | .257 | |
53.3 | 27.7 | .263 | |
52.8 | 26.5 | .270 | |
Hyun-Jin Ryu | 52.4 | 26.3 | .266 |
51.9 | 29.6 | .297 | |
51.1 | 29 | .257 | |
50 | 34 | .295 | |
49.4 | 34.8 | .248 | |
49.4 | 31.3 | .274 | |
48.4 | 24 | .271 | |
48.4 | 24 | .271 | |
47.3 | 32.7 | .289 | |
47.2 | 34.8 | .266 | |
47.1 | 25 | .266 | |
47 | 30.4 | .286 |
If Colorado decides on a fire sale and Germán Márquez gets traded, target him immediately. He owns a ground ball rate of 50.8 with a 26.3 whiff rate but half of his starts occur in batted balls in play (BABIP) heaven. Rebound by Chris Paddack ? He boasts a 49.1 ground ball percentage with a 26 percent whiff rate with similar rates by sleeper J.T. Brubaker of Pittsburgh. Other names missing the cut due to xwOBA: Spencer Turnbull , Lance McCullers Jr. , Jesús Luzardo , Kris Bubic and Aaron Civale.
Relief Pitchers
- From 2020 only, relievers with a K-BB% of 25 percent or higher, a SwStr% of 15 or better and contact allowed below 67 percent
Pitcher | K-BB% | SwStr% | Contact% |
44 | 22.3 | 49.5 | |
37 | 19.2 | 65.7 | |
33.9 | 17.1 | 57.9 | |
33.3 | 21.7 | 56.7 | |
33 | 16.5 | 64 | |
32.7 | 21.5 | 54.6 | |
32.3 | 18.5 | 63.6 | |
31.2 | 15.1 | 66.7 | |
28.6 | 18.8 | 63.6 | |
28.1 | 15.9 | 65.7 | |
27.5 | 18.1 | 57.1 | |
26.9 | 16.1 | 64.3 |
With Rosenthal headed to Oakland, he could be a top-five reliever in 2021 if he carries over the skills displayed last year. Can Garrett ascend atop the Reds bullpen? Only time will tell but his numbers took a major step forward last year.
Use the statistics provided, dig into your own research and find some fun in analytics. Hopefully this series resonates with you as an addition to the Fantasy Alarm draft kit in 2021.
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com