Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Over/Under: 8 Runs

Dodgers -140

If looking at historical numbers, the team with a 3-2 lead has gone on to win the World Series 44 times out of 67 opportunities (65.7-percent). However, of 42 times the team leading 3-2 lost Game 6, they have only won the series 19 times (45.2-percent). What does this mean? For starters, the rhetoric of Los Angeles using Tony Gonsolin for five to six innings seems a bit far fetched. It’s in the Dodgers best interest to end this tonight with reports suggesting Julio Urías nor Clayton Kershaw will be available in Game 6. 

As for the Rays, they send Blake Snell to the mound. He tossed 4.2 no-hit innings until running into trouble in Game 2 before exiting the outing with nine strikeouts during a no-decision. Of more concern, the four walks and two hits allowed led to two earned runs versus Snell. He features an elevated fastball and slider which suits Mookie Betts well. If trying to take down a GPP, going against the grain will be a bit necessary. 

Before delving into the playbook for this evening’s game, here’s some intriguing player props from DraftKings Sportsbook:

To Hit a Home Run: 

+350 Corey Seager  

+370 Max Muncy

+375 Randy Arozarena

+380 Brandon Lowe

+390 Cody Bellinger

+400 Mookie Betts , Will Smith , Austin Meadows

Strikeouts by a pitcher: 

Over 5.5 strikeouts for Snell -137, under +108, no line for Gonsolin

In Game 2, Brandon Lowe connected for two home runs breaking the slate. It’s a bit under the radar, but Austin Meadows has made strong contact in recent games, so his number above points to some upside. Although the Dodgers insist Gonsolin will not be an “opener”, the Rays are 4-1 averaging seven runs per game facing one this postseason. For my personal lineups, using either pitcher comes with too much risk in a game which should exceed the over. 

With this in mind, here’s tonight’s Showdown Slate Playbook:

Captain/MVP

1) Max Muncy , 1B LAD - Leads the Dodgers in RBI in the World Series, he’s recorded an eye popping .522 OBP and 1.133 OPS against the Rays. Muncy handles left-handed pitching as well as right-handed and leads this postseason with 20 walks, which ranks tied for second all-time. Through 17 postseason contests this year, Muncy owns a .461 OBP with 12 runs and 14 RBI. He can be streaky, is locked in at the plate and could launch a home run tonight. 

2) Austin Meadows , OF TB - Hear me out, in a GPP one needs to go against the mainstream. On the surface, Meadows noted swing and miss tendencies overlook his 105.9 MPH lineout against Walker Buehler or his 102.5 MPH single. Yes, Meadows could put up a goose egg and strike out twice. But, he could also turn in the game like his teammate Lowe with double dong upside. Feeling lucky? 

3) Mookie Betts , OF LAD - It will take some creativity with pricing, but Betts leads the Dodgers in hitter efficiency against elevated fastballs and sliders, the main repertoire of his opposing pitcher. Betts has also swiped four bases in this series along with seven hits in 25 past at-bats (.280) versus Snell with two doubles, one home run and a .557 expected slugging rate. As a sweetener, Betts has not been caught stealing by a southpaw in his career. 

Mid-Tier

1) Randy Arozarena, OF TB - It’s tough to argue with the player who leads the postseason in home runs (9), hits (27) and total bases (59). His 13 extra-base hits rank tied for second all-time tied with Nelson Cruz (2010) and Albert Pujols (2011) while trailing David Freese (14 XBH in 2011). During the World Series, Arozarena’s hitting .333 with a 1.121 OPS, but Los Angeles may decide to make any other Ray beat them tonight. 

2) Corey Seager , SS LAD - See the player above, because Seager has hit two home runs with five RBI and sports a 1.421 OPS in the World Series. He’s racked up 50 total bases with 12 extra-base hits, 19 RBI and 20 runs all postseason. Seager’s next home run in the World Series will put him in first among all shortstops since he’s tied with Carlos Correa and Derek Jeter with three so far in his career. He also trails teammate Justin Turner by one for the franchise record with 11 postseason home runs. Could Seager make history tonight? 

3) Cody Bellinger , OF LAD - Like Meadows, a boom or bust play with upside. Bellinger can handle fastballs and Snell struggles with power hitting left-handed bats at times. Once “The Stable” of relievers from the Rays enters the contest, Bellinger gets a bump since the primary ones slated to pitch tonight will be right-handed. Sort of a gut call here but trusting the “Belly” (get it) on this one. In cash games, I get preferring Justin Turner , he’s an extra-base hit machine. 

Value Tier

1) Ji-Man Choi , 1B TB - Shifting to leadoff means more at-bats for Choi and his defense should keep him in the lineup until late in the game. Choi has hit a home run as the leadoff hitter but it’s among his three hits batting first in 26 at-bats. Still, Choi provides an intriguing pivot when differentiating lineups and like Muncy above, owns a strong approach at the plate keeping his OBP up along with the chance Choi either scores or drives in a run in this match-up. For the less risk averse, pivot to Manuel Margot running with reckless abandon once he reaches base. 

2) Joc Pederson , OF LAD - Yes, he will not be in the starting lineup, but Pederson’s power once he takes over for Pollock puts him in a prime spot in any GPP. He hit an opposite field home run off of Tyler Glasnow in Game 5 and Pederson carries a .400 average with a 1.155 OPS once he enters the contest tonight. 

3) Kevin Kiermaier , OF TB - Noting the over remains in play tonight, Kiermaier leads the Rays in the World Series in OPS (1.162) and recorded two hits in Game 5 versus the Dodgers. He’s been hot of late and using him as a low priced flier makes sense, just know he will be popular this evening if looking for variance.