Houston vs. Tampa Bay

 

Over/Under: 8

 

Tampa Bay -130

Staving off elimination, Houston became the first team to produce a lead-off and walk-off home run in the same playoff game. Being an elimination game only adds to the drama building in this series. Today’s starter did warm-up in case of extra innings, so keep this in mind when determining his upside in terms of innings pitched. Two southpaws will meet in a rematch deciding if Houston forces a Game 7 or if Tampa Bay returns to the World Series for the first time since 2008. 

Houston Astros

Starting with Framber Valdez, he’s performed admirably as the Astros de facto ace this postseason. He’s 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA, 17:7 K:BB and 1.00 WHIP through 18 innings over three starts. But, note his slight increase in walk percentage (10.9 percent in the playoffs) and Valdez’s 4.64 FIP when using him in DFS. If he can control his arsenal, Valdez should be able to log six innings but if regression hits, the Rays may be moving on. 

Carlos Correa launched the game winning home run in Game 5 becoming the third player in postseason history with multiple walk-off home runs (David Ortiz, Bernie Williams). Correa leads the Astros in OPS (1.272) and RBI (14) this postseason while hitting .342 (13-for-38) with more home runs in 11 playoff games than his five in the regular season over 58 contests. He’s only 2-for-9 in career match-ups with Snell but drew two walks against him in Game 1. 

Another hot Houston batter, Jose Altuve owns strong career numbers against Snell including a home run in their first match-up in the first game of the series accounting for the Astros only run in it. Altuve’s 7-for-18 (.389) with a double and four home runs facing the Rays talented starter and his .342 expected batting average (xBA) and .842 expected slugging (xSLG) percentage reinforce his past successes coming into this contest. Plus, Altuve’s hit three home runs through five games in this series with a .421 average. 

When looking to record points against LHP, George Springer also comes to mind and he led of yesterday’s game with a dinger of his own. Springer leads the franchise in career postseason home runs with 19 and his next one will put him into fourth place all time in major league history moving ahead of Albert Pujols. Springer only went 1-for-5 in Game 1 but enters tonight’s game with a .313 average versus Snell (5-for-16) with a home run, a .361 xBA and .724 xSLG. 

A wild card for GPP’s, Aledmys Diaz should start with a lefty on the mound. He’s only hitting .200 in 10 career at-bats against Snell but batting .308 in the playoffs through 13 plate appearances. Last, but not least, Alex Bregman only produced against LHP in the regular season and looks to break out of his recent slump facing Snell. Bregman’s recorded seven hits in 17 career at-bats versus Snell (.412) with a double and two home runs. 

Tampa Bay Rays

Blake Snell takes the mound with a chance to pitch the Rays into the World Series. He faces a lineup which hits well versus left-handed pitchers along with some advantageous numbers Snell in past match-ups. Snell lasted five innings for the win on Sunday in Game 1 striking out two and issuing two walks giving up an earned run and six hits. How effective he pitches today may decide if there’s a Game 7 or if Tampa can clinch this series. 

Not sure how Randy Arozarena does not have a sore back from carrying the Rays offense but he cracked his sixth home run of the postseason yesterday tying the MLB record for rookies set by Evan Longoria. Arozarena’s hitting .417 (20-for-48) in 12 games this postseason. Will the Astros pitch to him? Otherwise, he’s tough to ignore leading all players with 13 runs. Here’s his home run breakdown by pitch (courtesy of Sports Info Solutions): 

  • Versus Fastballs: 9-for-18, four home runs

  • Versus Sliders: 5-for-12, one home run

  • Versus curveballs: 5-for-12, one home run

  • Versus all other pitches: 1-for-6, no home runs 

With a lefty on the mound, Mike Brosseau will lead off and Hunter Renfroe bats third with the Rays hoping for a spark on offense. Brosseau hit .333 versus LHP in the regular season with nine of his 14 hits going for extra-bases (five doubles, four home runs). Renfroe has hit 45 career home runs in Petco Park with a .285 isolated power in over 600 plate appearances in San Diego. Since home runs account for over 50 percent of postseason runs this season, why not take a chance on a Renfroe dinger in this contest? 

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves

 

Over/Under: 9.5

 

Dodgers -200

For the first time since 1992, two LCS series could be clinched on the same day. Since both teams may be emptying the clip in the bullpens to survive this game, avoid either starter for DFS contests. Dustin May could seem alluring, but he’s only pitched 4.2 innings in three outings this postseason. Atlanta will try the Padres blueprint of a bullpen game in an attempt to clinch a series with A.J. Minter getting the start. It could be sharks smelling blood in the water for the Braves who are 2-0 in clinching games so far in this year’s playoffs seeking for their first World Series appearance since 1999. 

Los Angeles Dodgers

Not only did Edwin Rios make some history with his home run last night, he’s homered in consecutive games for the Dodgers. Rios became the first player to homer as the designated hitter in an NLCS game, one inning before Marcell Ozuna. Rios remains hot at the dish and makes for a nice bargain play versus the Braves bullpen if in the lineup. (Rios is not in the lineup.)

It’s tough to predict who will thrive in this contest due to the parade of arms Atlanta will deploy. Corey Seager should not be overlooked slashing .324/.400/.706 through nine games this postseason with three home runs and 21 runs plus RBI. Lineup construction and match-ups make the rest of the Dodgers speculative plays but look for a Will Smith rebound if Los Angeles extends the series. 

Atlanta Braves

Stealing the spotlight last night, Marcell Ozuna launched two home runs driving in four runs. He’s also logged four career at-bats against May with a home run and double in four at-bats. This equates to a .564 xBA and 1.491 xSLG for Ozuna in today’s match-up. 

MVP candidate Freddie Freeman continues to rake with six hits in 14 at-bats in the NLCS with a double and two home runs. He’s also hitting .438 this year against pitches 97 MPH or better, a key to success versus May. Travis d’Arnaud could be off the DFS radar tonight due to his recent slump with only one hit his last 12 at-bats, but he owns a .538 average (7-for-13) against pitches of 97 MPH or better as well. 

Rookie Christian Pache remained productive since being forced into the lineup with an injury to Adam Duvall. He will be popular but a nice choice for those looking to save money in the outfield on this slate. Austin Riley seems due to a nice game in a big spot with his team on the precipice of the World Series. Also, keep an eye on Dansby Swanson who drove in two runs with a double last night