Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves

Over/Under: 9.5

LAD -185

While Atlanta tries to put the Dodgers on the brink of elimination, two young pitchers could decide how this series progresses with Kyle Wright facing off with Julio Urias. Due to the projected run line, hitters in this contest could be popular in today’s two game slate. Atlanta has scored first in all seven of its postseason contests so far, winning all of them so a scoreless first may be a key to Urias turning the tide. 

Dodgers

Bouncing between a starting pitcher and a bulk reliever, Urias owns a combined 5-0 record in the regular and postseason. In the playoffs, Urias has logged eight innings giving up zero earned runs with a 11:1 K:BB and 0.63 WHIP in them. In the regular season he yielded a .288 weighted on-base average (wOBA) to right-handed hitters but still produced a 31:14 K:BB against them while limited left-handed hitters to a .137/.196/.294 slash. Urias could be a key to slowing down the red hot Freddie Freeman. 

For the risk averse, if Urias only works five innings (or less), Dustin May could be the bridge to high leverage and siphon a win if he enters a tied game or in the fifth inning itself. This remains a must win match-up for the Dodgers, so it will be all hands on deck if available. 

As for the batters, Wright allowed a .393 wOBA to left-handed hitters in the regular season striking out as many (14) as he walked (14). This could bode well for the formerly dormant Dodger bats who woke up in the late innings yesterday. Cody Bellinger snapped an eight at-bat hitless streak in the ninth inning with a triple off of Mark Melancon. Bellinger hit nine of his 12 regular season home runs versus RHP with a .252 isolated power. Betting on a bounce back in a pivotal game this afternoon makes sense. 

Vastly overlooked Corey Seager launched a three-run home run in Game 2 and carries a .308 (8-for-26) average this postseason with three doubles, two home runs and eight RBI into this contest. He’s worth every penny in today’s two game slate. Max Muncy moved into a tie for fourth all-time in Dodger history with his home run yesterday as well. He’s a boom or bust hitter but represents an integral part of stack for Los Angeles hitters. 

Do not forget Mookie Betts either. He, like Bellinger could be due for a big day in the slate’s highest projected run total. Betts actually hit better versus RHP this season including all 16 of his home runs, a robust .354 isolated power and 1.061 OPS. Off the radar, Edwin Rios could sneak into today’s lineup making him a pivot with power upside but also runs the risk of being lifted for a pinch hitter later in the contest. 

Last, but not least, Will Smith also hit all of his home runs (eight) off of RHP in the regular season with a .288 average, .350 isolated power and 1.040 OPS in 97 plate appearances. 

Braves

Kyle Wright started the season slowly but has logged at least six innings in each of his last four starts including a playoff win over Miami. Wright recorded a 3.91 ERA his last 23 innings of the regular season with an 18:8 K:BB and worked six scoreless frames versus the Marlins with seven strikeouts against two walks. With the Dodgers desperate for a win, look for them to run up the pitch counts against Wright to get to a tired bullpen. 

Both Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies have homered in the first two games of this series for Atlanta. Freeman could suffer a bit in DFS facing Urias who fares well against left-handed hitters. Albies hit RHP much better this season but homered off of LHP Adam Kolarek in Game 2 raising his postseason average to .310 with a .241 isolated power. 

A sneaky stack going against the stream could be using Johan Camargo, Christian Pache and Ronald Acuna Jr., especially if lining up the hitters in this match-up. Camargo will play third. He’s a career .286 hitter against LHP with a .221 isolated power. Pache will be a near minimum priced dart who doubled while scoring a run and driving in one in his postseason debut. Acuna Jr. has struggled in this series but drew two walks in Game 2 and scored two runs. 

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros

 

Over/Under: 8

 

Rays -140
 

On the precipice of a trip to the World Series, the Rays remain one of six franchises to never win one. If they lose this series, the Astros will look back at stranding at least 10 baserunners in the first three games and lament. With this game being a potential series clincher, the pitching could be very fluid and may limit upside in DFS contests. 

Rays

With a chance to clinch a trip to the World Series, Tampa Bay sends its de facto ace to the mound. Tyler Glasnow racked up 91 strikeouts in 57.1 innings during the regular season and owns a 20:6 K:BB through 13.1 innings in the postseason. He did lose two starts against the Astros last year in the Division Series with a 7.71 ERA. But let’s focus on 2020 for Glasnow and if he controls his arsenal early on, could log five-to-six strong innings with a chance to record a win if the Rays can pull off a sweep. Wild card alert: if Glasnow struggles or leaves early, Aaron Slegers may steal a win in long relief. 

Randy Arozarena continues to rake and tallied his fourth 3-hit game last night becoming the first rookie to accomplish this feat in any postseason along with the fourth player overall. He’s within five hits of setting the MLB record for hits in the playoffs by a rookie set by Derek Jeter (22 in 1996) and he’s 18-for-39 (.462) in 10 career postseason contests. 

Since the Rays offense relies on Arozarena so far, some cheap pivots could be in play for this slate. Hunter Renfroe may be forced to start since Kevin Kiermaier may miss this game after being hit by a pitch on his hand last night. Renfroe produced a bloop double last night but owns a .286 average in 21 career at-bats against Greinke with three home runs in them fueling a .695 expected slugging percentage and .443 expected wOBA. 

Ji-Man Choi represents a cheap dart throw at first base with two hits in four career at-bats facing Greinke including a home run. Not quite his numbers against Gerrit Cole, but I figure he’s due. Manuel Margot, the hero of Game 1, has two career home runs facing Greinke in 16 at-bats including a .438 average and .532 wOBA. Pretty, pretty good. Also, Joey Wendle owns a .308 average this postseason with six runs, two RBI and a stolen base. He's a safe floor on a high risk slate.

Astros

Normally, Zack Greinke in the postseason would make him a favorite. But, over his last 31.2 innings of the regular season he owned a 5.97 ERA while giving up all six home runs he allowed in them. Greinke insists he’s healthy but his 5.19 ERA, 6.42 FIP and 1.27 WHIP this postseason in 8.2 innings does not provide a warm fuzzy. Could Greinke turn in a quality start, sure. Will he remains a venture for the risk averse. 

Glasnow does give up home runs to right-handed hitters so Carlos Correa (.400 average with five home runs and 13 RBI in the playoffs) and Jose Altuve (four home runs the last five postseason games) remain in play. Steady Michael Brantley owns a .342 playoff average and his hit third home run last night. 

A wild card in this game may be Christian Javier. If Greinke struggles early or runs his pitch count up, Javier could enter with a chance to steal a win. Javier’s fired 6.1 scoreless innings of relief in the postseason with an 8:3 K:BB, 2.56 FIP and 0.95 WHIP in them. At this point of the playoffs, anything can happen. 

In an effort to provide EXAMPLE lineups, please note these are not simply to be plugged and played but give a blueprint to build them for today’s two game slate. Best of luck!