Injuries and performance make assessing Andrew Heaney difficult for fantasy purposes. Last year, Heaney lost time due to shoulder inflammation but made 18 starts spanning 95.1 innings with four wins, 118 strikeouts, a 4.91 ERA, 4.63 FIP and 1.29 WHIP. Considering his shoulder issues and the extreme hitting environment, Heaney’s season shrouds his potential. But, how much longer can we hope to keep him in the periphery of fantasy conversation? 

Getting late round targets with upside makes Heaney a worthy risk. Despite his issues last season, Heaney notched a 28.8 strikeout percentage versus a 7.3 walk rate with the highest swinging strike percent (14.1) of his career. Heaney also recorded his lowest contact rate allowed of 70.8 percent. Coming off of the most innings he logged (180) in 2018, time lost may shroud Heaney’s upcoming season. 

Delving into his pitches, here is his arsenal courtesy of Statcast:

 

Heaney keeps things simple with three pitches. However, he is yet to take a Rich Hill approach to his usage patterns. Keep this in mind when noting how Heaney generates swinging strikes. Viewing his pitches individually, Heaney’s 2019 season yielded the following results:

  • Sinker - 27 strikeout percentage, 27.6 whiff rate, 20.1 put away percent
  • Curve - 40.2 strikeout percentage, 40.9 whiff rate, 23 put away percent
  • Change - 17.1 strikeout percentage, 28.3 whiff rate, 17.6 put away percent

For the visual crowd, Heaney’s swing and miss chart illustrates how he gets swinging strikes elevating his sinker while throwing his curve below the strike zone: 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s Heaney’s curve which keeps fantasy owners intrigued. Signs of life last year include Heaney reducing zone and chase contact rates while increasing his whiff percentage by 4.8 percent. But his ground ball percentage dipped to 34.3 percent while his fly ball and line drive rates rose. Less than optimal. After returning from the injured list, Heaney recorded his best start of the year racking up 14 strikeouts on August 20th in Texas. Of his 108 pitches, Heaney used 63 sinkers, 26 curves and 19 changeups. This does not reflect how often Hill uses his curve, but if Heaney can throw the pitch for first strikes, it could unlock another level to his production. This will be pending but reflected in his projection sets. 

Using four projection systems on Fangraphs, Heaney’s upcoming year could be an improved one based on the numbers:

  • Andrew Heaney 2020 Aggregate Projection - 29 starts, 163 innings, 11 wins, 181 strikeouts, 4.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

Knowing Heaney’s only worked at least 160 innings in the majors once in his career keeps him a late round flier with possible upside. In the event of a truncated season, his projections in two different scenarios would look as such:

  • Heaney projection in a 108-game season: 19 starts, 107 innings, seven wins, 119 strikeouts
  • Heaney projection in an 81-game season: 14 starts, 79 innings, six wins, 88 strikeouts

If Heaney goes undrafted in a shallower league, note his pitch usage at the onset of the season. Heaney deploying his curve more often and his change could unlock a career year in terms of strikeout percentage. There is a path to success for Heaney but it requires health and performance. He is only put these two factors together once in the majors. This depresses his draft capital but makes Heaney a worthy target for the risk averse. 

 

Statistical Credits

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com