Failed top starting pitcher prospects who transition to the bullpen often make their mark as relief pitchers. Hunter Harvey seems primed to be the next experiment in this process. Many forget Mariano Rivera started his career trying to make the Yankees rotation, but settled in as a top reliever in the 1996 season setting up for John Wetteland with the rest being history. Making this sort of comparison proves unfair to Harvey, but it’s a lesson many use when targeting upside at the closer position. 

Harvey only logged seven major league appearances as a reliever last year working 6.1 innings but recorded 11 of his 18 outs via strikeout resulting in an eye popping 42.3 strikeout percentage. Of course, he also issued four walks en route to a 1.42 ERA, 3.69 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in these outings but the strikeout volume stands out. According to reports, Harvey’s fastball as a starting pitcher sat between 92-to-95 MPH reaching 97 at times. As a reliever, his fastball averaged 98.3 MPH. 

Beneath his surface statistics, Harvey owned a 10.9 swinging strike percentage during his short stint in the majors with a 77.6 contact percentage, 80.4 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) rate, and a 28 O-Swing (outside the strike zone) percent. Not as alluring as his strikeout percentage but worth noting. Especially given the low seams attributed to last year’s baseballs along with their propensity to jump over the fences for home runs. 

When looking at his numbers on Statcast, Harvey fared well but it’s tough to get a read due to the limited sample. Harvey yielded 11 batted ball events with one barrel, a 2.3 degree launch angle against and a .193 expected batting average. His xERA of 3.23 suggests some migration to the mean as does his 3.69 FIP, but this can be mitigated by issuing fewer walks. 

In order to evaluate Harvey for the upcoming season, here’s an illustration of his arsenal in a pitch plot courtesy of Statcast:

Armed with big league pedigree, all of Harvey’s pitches come with above average grades per the scouting community. His fastball notched a whiff percentage of 25 as did his change-up. He used the fastball for eight of his 11 major league strikeouts with a 21.1 put away percentage. His curve could be a weapon as well with two strikeouts last season but a 28.6 whiff percent and 18.2 put away percentage. Here’s Harvey’s swing and miss chart from 2020 in the majors:

There may be some growing pains as a result of Harvey’s limited exposure as a reliever. He transitioned last season with only 15 appearances as a reliever in the minors but he racked up 33 strikeouts and a 2.81 ERA across two levels. Plus, this quote from his manager provides some hope for the saves chasers: 

Per an interview with Craig Mish: Harvey is “definitely an option” to close this season. “When we had [Harvey] there for that three-week span, our bullpen completely changed,” Hyde said. “It was somebody that I could use in a high-leverage spot that was throwing 100 with good secondary stuff and it seemed like it kind of fell into place for everybody else and everybody threw better during the time he was there.”

For fantasy purposes, trusting Harvey’s manager comes with some risk. Ask any Mychal Givens owner from last year. Givens finished as one of 11 major league players last year to record at least 10 saves with at least seven holds. Hyde mixed and matched late in games using Givens as his high leverage reliever, not necessarily as an exclusive closer. But, hope springs eternal and perhaps Harvey can emerge as the best ninth inning option for Baltimore. At least fantasy players know he’s on the manager’s radar. 

As for Harvey’s projections, they will not be generous given his limited sample from last year and the walk rate. Using three projection systems on Fangraphs, here’s his average projection:

  • Hunter Harvey 2020 Aggregate Projection - 58 games, 59 innings, three wins, 16 saves, 62 strikeouts, 4.47 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

One can foresee a range of outcomes for Harvey based on his arsenal and strikeout upside flashed last year. Adding in his usage pattern being unknown and the specter of a truncated season, here’s his projections in two different scenarios: 

  • Harvey 108-game projection - 39 games, 40 innings, two wins, 11 saves, 42 strikeouts
  • Harvey 81-game projection - 29 games, 30 innings, two wins, eight saves, 32 strikeouts

Siding on talent, Harvey could exceed the strikeout projections in a full or shortened season. His save total remains in flux depending on how he’s deployed. It feels like the 16 saves in a full season may be a sweet spot based on Hyde’s usage patterns last year. However, if Harvey starts strong, his talent could force the manager’s hand allowing Harvey to entrench himself in the role. Target Harvey at his present price point as a third closer with upside and hope for the best. There’s an alluring ceiling here tempered by his walk rate. If he reduces the free passes, Harvey could emerge as a second tier closer as early as 2020. But he’s a work in progress. 

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Statistical Credits: 

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com