Sometimes hidden gems can be discovered beneath the data. Eddie Rosario seemed well on his way to an age-27 breakout before an ankle injury derailed his season. It seemed innocuous at the time with reports indicating Rosario’s injury would not be serious when he landed on the injured list June 28th. Here’s his start to 2019 prior to the injury: 

  • Rosario March - June 26th - 74 games, 51 runs, 20 home runs, 60 RBI, three stolen bases; .282/.312/.529, .247 isolated power, .273 BABIP, .346 wOBA

Rosario missed the All-Star Game but returned to action after the break playing through ankle pain the rest of the season. In-season reports can be misleading, but Rosario admitted to being uncomfortable running following his return and the results can be seen in his numbers, especially the underlying ones:

  • Rosario July - September - 62 games, 40 runs, 12 home runs, 49 RBI, zero stolen base attempts; .268/.286/.465, .197 isolated power, .273 BABIP, .307 wOBA

Noting how Rosario’s isolated power and weighted on-base average dropped, it’s also interesting to see his average drop despite identical batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in each split. All told, Rosario still turned in career bests in runs (91), home runs (32), and RBI (109) in only 137 contests. His career worst BABIP only resulted in his average dropping to .276 for the year, so perhaps a return to his 2017 and 2018 levels in the category could occur this year within his power peak. 

Rosario will never be regarded as owning above average plate discipline metrics, but he notched his career best contact percentage (80.3) and Z-Contact (in the strike zone) of 85.1 percent in 2019. Of course, Rosario also owned his highest O-Swing (outside the strike zone) percentage of 46.3 last season. Hope for the return of the contact rates but know hitting above .290 will be difficult due to his free swinging ways. 

According to Statcast, Rosario recorded 482 batted ball events with 41 barrels (8.5 percent) with an 89.1 MPH average exit velocity and 16.7 degree launch angle. Despite playing through injury in the second half, Rosario upped his sweet spot percentage (33.4) and hard hit rate (36 percent) in 2019. He generated fly balls in 29.7 percent of his batted ball data and a line drive rate of 23.4 percent trading weak contact for solid contact. Rosario pulled the ball in 44.4 percent of his data with a slight dip in his opposite field percentage (20.1 percent). Here’s his spray chart from last year: 

Beneath his batted ball data, Rosario increased his zone swing and zone contact percentages above 80 percent. Yes, his swing percentage rose in 2019 but Rosario reduced his whiff percent by 2.1 points in the process. His expected statistics with a .269 expected batting average, .501 expected slugging and .330 expected weighted on-base average come close to his actual ones. Rosario’s been able to hit for a higher average than his expected one the previous two seasons, so there’s hope for him coming closer to the .282 pre-injury batting average rather than the depressed .268 he hit in the second half. Here’s his zone profile courtesy of Statcast from last year: 

Over the last three years, Rosario’s logged 1,663 at-bats with 257 runs, 83 home runs, 264 RBI, 20 stolen bases and a .284/.317/.495 slash line. Given health, Rosario could record a career best season if his power carries over, even with some regression given a less “bouncy” baseball in 2020. Rosario’s projections reflect this using his average line from five different systems on Fangraphs:

  • Eddie Rosario 2020 Aggregate Projection - 137 games, 82 runs, 27 home runs, 92 RBI, five stolen bases, .282 batting average

Since baseball could move forward with a shortened season, here are his projections in two different scenarios:

  • Rosario 108-game projection - 65 runs, 21 home runs, 73 RBI, four stolen bases
  • Rosario 81-game projection - 48 runs, 16 home runs, 54 RBI, three stolen bases

At his present price point and a part of one of baseball’s best lineups, Rosario represents a bargain due to his first 74-game sample and two previous year’s production. His final line gets shrouded by an ankle injury and a return to a .280-plus average with eight stolen bases adds to his allure in the season ahead. Do not be afraid to reach a round above Rosario’s average draft position to secure an outfielder with upside compared to his perceived value. 

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com