In a cruel twist of fate for Christian Yelich , his 2019 season ended in Miami when he fouled a pitch off his knee resulting in a broken right kneecap. Despite playing in only 130 games last year, Yelich set career highs in the following categories: 

  • Average (.329) led the MLB for the second straight season
  • Home runs (44)
  • On-base percentage (.429)
  • Slugging percentage (.671) also led the majors
  • On-base plus slugging percentage (1.100) led the majors
  • Stolen bases (30)
  • Tied his career high in walks (80)

At the time of his injury, Yelich appeared on his way to become the first player in major league history with at least 50 home runs and 30 stolen bases in a season. He settled for being the 10th player ever with at least 40 homers and 30 steals. Not too shabby.

All told, Yelich scored 100 runs with 97 RBI with his robust slash line and career best home run total. His walk percentage remained strong at 13.8 percent versus a 20.3 strikeout rate. Yelich also notched a career best isolated power (.342) and his average remained atop the league even though his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) fell to .355, almost 20 points below last year.

Yelich also proved to be more aggressive at the plate recording his career worst swinging strike percentage (11.5 percent) and lowest contact rate (73.8 percent). His Z-Contact fell to 87 percent just below the elite totals but his ability to generate hard hits while taking advantage of his new home ballpark keeps Yelich among the top picks in fantasy drafts.

According to Statcast, Yelich registered 374 batted ball events with 59 barrels (15.8 percent) with a 93.1 MPH average exit velocity and 11.2-degree launch angle. Missing the last three weeks of the season did not prevent Yelich from being among the league leaders in barrels (eighth overall), average exit velocity (fifth overall) and fifth in maximum exit velocity (117.9 MPH). Yelich owned a 33.2 sweet spot percentage and 49.1 percent hard hit rate.

As alluded to above, Yelich traded some discipline for results last year. His zone swing percentage rose to 69.9 percent (up 5.3 points compared to 2018) but Yelich’s zone contact percent fell by over two percentage points. He also notched higher swing and whiff rates in 2019. Yelich overcame this by trading ground balls for fly balls in his batted ball data. First, note his trends generating each courtesy of Statcast:

Yelich Ground Ball Chart

Yelich Fly Ball Chart

It’s encouraging to see Yelich did not sell out in pull percentage with a rise only to 35.8 percent of his batted balls in play. He still used the center of the field and opposite field as can be seen in his spray chart, but pulling fly balls in Miller Park fuels his power breakout:

Knowing Miller Park benefits left-handed power hitters, Yelich adapted quickly to his new surroundings. As a brewer, he’s played 277 games with 218 runs, 80 home runs, 207 RBI, 52 stolen based and a .327/.415/.631 slash. Transitioning to his expected statistics from last season, Yelich finished with a .314 expected average, .623 expected slugging and .421 expected weighted on-base average (21 points below his actual). So, some regression lies in the offing but not too much to the delight of fantasy owners. Here’s his zone profile:

When projecting Yelich for the upcoming season, how healthy his kneecap appears may determine the ceiling on his stolen base total. Yelich averaged just below 16 stolen bases the three seasons prior to last year. So discerning if 2019’s 30 steals will be an outlier or not factors in his overall value. With this in mind, here’s Yelich’s average projection using five different systems available on Fangraphs:

  • Christian Yelich Aggregate 2020 Projection - 148 games, 105 runs, 36 home runs, 104 RBI, 22 stolen bases, .305 average

In the event baseball plays any type of shortened season, only one player accrued at least 20 home runs and stolen bases in the first 100 games of 2019, Christian Yelich . Here’s his average projection in two different scenarios:

  • Yelich 108-game projection - 77 runs, 26 home runs, 76 RBI, 16 stolen bases
  • Yelich 81-game projection - 57 runs, 20 home runs, 57 RBI, 12 stolen bases

Months of average draft data list Ronald Acuña Jr. as the top target in fantasy drafts for the 2020 season. However, owners looking to secure a better batting average with elite runs and RBI plus power upside with speed could pivot to Christian Yelich . Owning a top-three pick comes with its rewards this year and the case can be made to take Yelich first in redraft formats. There will be no argument here. Heed his gains in Milwaukee and target him with confidence during his Age-28 season. If he cuts the ground ball rate again, 40-plus home runs in a full season could repeat.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com