Parceling out if 2019 will be an outlier or a breakout for Hunter Dozier depresses his price in redraft leagues. A waiver wire wonder for many last season, Dozier appeared in 139 games with 75 runs, 26 home runs, 84 RBI, two stolen bases and a .279/.348/.522 slash line. His 9.4 walk percentage and 25.3 strikeout rate do not look unrepeatable but paying full retail for Dozier’s .243 isolated power could be risky due to the power spike across baseball last year.

In terms of plate discipline, Dozier cut his swinging strike percentage to a more palatable 11.5-percent with his contact remaining steady but a slight boost in his Z-Contact (in the strike zone) to 90.4-percent. Keeping in mind Dozier’s first full season in the majors occurred during his Age-27 season, late age breakouts can carry over but determining to what level will be a key.

According to Statcast, Dozier recorded 380 batted ball events with 38 barrels (10-percent), a 91.1 MPH average exit velocity and 16.7 degree launch angle. Dozier’s sweet spot percentage (35.8-percent) and hard hit rate (42.6-percent) both improved in 2019. His ground ball rate of 34.5, 28.2 fly ball percentage and 28.4 line drive percent will support his uptick in power. Unlike many power surges, Dozier did not rely on pulling the ball using the middle of the field 35.5-percent of his batted ball data and the opposite field 25.3-percent of the time. Here’s his spray chart from last year:

Although his home runs map out to his pull side, it’s encouraging to see he’s not limited to left field. Beneath his numbers, Dozier made strides in his zone contact percentage while reducing his chase rate, swing and whiff percentages. Dozier’s expected statistics of a .261 expected batting average and .471 expected slugging do not suggest too much regression, his .337 expected weighted on-base average finished 23 points below his actual. File this fact while perusing his zone profile from Statcast last season:

Delving into Dozier’s two halves last year, it reveals some trends to focus on for 2020. In the first half, Dozier slashed .282/.367/.582 with 13 home runs in 68 games spanning 248 at-bats. Dozier maintained his power hitting 13 home runs in 72 games after the break in 71 contests and 275 at-bats but his slash lines fell back to .276/.330/.513 in them. This aligns with his xwOBA above. Plus, Dozier’s walk rate decreased slightly while his strikeout percentage rose to 28 percent. As the league adjusted, Dozier lost some on-base percentage but held the power without sacrificing average across the board.

Noting projections rely on past performance to predict the future. Using the average of his five projection sets on Fangraphs, here’s how his season could look:

  • Hunter Dozier 2020 Average Projection - 143 games, 72 runs, 23 home runs, 80 RBI, four stolen bases, .251 average

Knowing Dozier’s expected average from last year of .261 does not suggest a complete collapse, using this as a guide for 2020 defrays some of the worry of his average in the projections. In fact, something close to his second half slash line may be in order for 2020 making Dozier’s upside intriguing at his price point. But it should be tempered with a different baseball in the majors making the rest of his projection realistic. Planning on a potential shortened season, here’s how his numbers would look in two scenarios:

  • Dozier 108-game projection - 54 runs, 17 home runs, 60 RBI, three stolen bases
  • Dozier 81-game projection - 41 runs, 13 home runs, 45 RBI, two stolen bases

Putting together a winning team comes with many parts. With corner infield not as deep as years past, targeting Hunter Dozier makes sense. Just do not pay for his first half last year.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com