When identifying potential breakouts, Brian Anderson checks most of the boxes. He’s projected to bat second in the Marlins lineup, so more plate appearances leading to more counting statistics like runs and RBI. Miami moved the fences in by over 11 feet in the right-center alley for a player who hits the ball well to right field, check. Entering his power peak turning 27 in May, check. 

On August 23rd last year, Anderson took a Vince Velasquez fastball off his hand resulting in a fracture. This cost him the rest of his season resulting in Anderson appearing in 126 games with 57 runs, 20 home runs, 66 RBI, five stolen bases and a .261/.342/.468 slash line. Fortunately, Anderson’s season being cut short along with the power spike in baseball shrouds his breakout. Beneath his surface statistics, Anderson kept his walk and strikeout percentages within two points compared to 2018 while increasing his isolated power to .203 along with almost doubling his home run per fly ball rate to 16.3 percent. 

Anderson traded some discipline with his swinging strike percentage rising to 11.9 but even with a slightly reduced contact rate he improved his Z-Contact (in the strike zone) to 87.1 percent from 84.9 in 2018. Unlike many hitters with a boost in power, Anderson did not rely on pulling the ball which will be seen in his Statcast data. 

Despite losing time to his hand injury, Anderson recorded 348 batted ball events with 31 barrels (8.9 percent), an 89.9 MPH average exit velocity, and 11.1 degree launch angle. He upped his hard hit percentage to a career best 45.7 percent and his sweet spot percentage rose to 31.3 percent. Anderson cut his ground ball rate by almost seven points while raising his fly ball rate by almost six points with his line drive percentage holding steady at 23.9 percent. While increasing his power, Anderson only pulled the ball in 31.6 percent of his batted ball data with 39.1 percent up the middle and 29.3 percent to the opposite field. Keeping in mind the Marlins will move in the fences in right-center field, here’s his spray chart from last year: 

If Anderson can convert some of the field outs near the fence in right-center field, his power can take a step forward even if the major leagues use a less “bouncy” ball in 2020. Beneath his numbers, Anderson’s expected statistics almost align with his actual numbers with a .259 expected average, .461 expected slugging and .343 expected weighted on-base average. In fact, with some migration to the mean, Anderson could improve his average and power in 2020 versus fastballs. Last season, Anderson owned a .247 average against the pitch but an xBA of .276 plus his slugging percentage of .438 versus his xSLG of .482 imply room for growth. Add in his improved zone contact percentage and peruse his zone profile: 

When trying to project Anderson for the upcoming season, note his improved runs scored rate with him lining up to be the second hitter in the lineup. Taking his five projection sets from Fangraphs for an average, here’s how his season could look: 

  • Brian Anderson 2020 Projection - 147 games, 76 runs, 20 home runs, 72 RBI, five stolen bases, .260 average

Although the home runs and average could be below his actual season in 2020, paying for this baseline projection makes sense. However, Anderson cut his home run per at-bat rate last year in half along with the fences being moved in at his home field. Also, Anderson stole three of his five bases when batting second in only 25 games last year. There’s room for Anderson to improve his home run total to 23-to-25 home runs and also move his stolen base total to 7-to-9 in 147 games. In the event there’s a shortened season, here’s how Anderson’s projections would adjust: 

  • Anderson’s 108-game projection - 55 runs, 15 home runs, 53 RBI, four stolen bases
  • Anderson’s 81-game projection - 42 runs, 11 home runs, 40 RBI, three stolen bases

There’s not a huge power spike in the offing, but bear in mind Anderson enters his power peak with a chance to take a step forward in his power, stolen bases, and potentially average improving versus fastballs. Pay for the projections above but profit lies in Anderson’s eligibility at third base and the outfield along with a step forward in his counting statistics. 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com