Perhaps it’s easy to forget about Didi Gregorius with the talent pool at shortstop this season. Reunited in Philadelphia with his former manager Joe Girardi, Gregorius seems primed for a bounce back in 2020. Moving from New York to Citizens Bank Park should not impact Gregorius’ power numbers too much. As a frame of reference, here’s his spray chart from the last three years of all batted balls in the air with Philadelphia as the backdrop: 

Over the last three years, Gregorius owns a .267/.314/.473 slash line with 68 home runs and 235 RBI in 355 games. This sets him up well to succeed in a strong lineup for the Phillies. Last year, the aggregate sixth hitters slashed .266/.311/.444 with 79 runs and 85 RBI over 638 at-bats. Knowing this, Gregorius sets up as a below the radar target at shortstop for teams looking for power later in drafts given his present price point. 

Perhaps last year’s .238/.276/.441 line contributes to the reduced price on Gregorius, but he still launched 16 home runs with 61 RBI in his 82 games. Representing one of the few players to experience a drop in his isolated power, noting his return from Tommy John surgery along with a minor shoulder injury contributed to his reduced production. It’s also worth noting Gregorius’ drop in batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in each of the last three years. It seems like his batting average could be at more risk than his potential power production. 

According to Statcast, Gregorius recorded 273 batted ball events in 2019 with 16 barrels (5.9 percent), an 88.2 MPH average exit velocity and 17.2 degree launch angle. One way to overcome shifts as a left-handed batter can be hitting more fly balls and line drives. Unfortunately, Gregorius upped his pull percentage last season with a fly ball rate of 27.8 percent and 20.9 line drive percentage. Beneath these numbers, Gregorius produced a lower sweet spot percentage of 29.7 percent but increased his hard hit rate to 34.8 percent. 

Transitioning to his expected statistics, Gregorius owned an expected batting average of .247 and a .408 expected slugging. Gregorius struggled with fastballs last year which can be attributed to his late debut due to surgery and missing spring training. Here’s his zone profile from 2019 courtesy of Statcast: 

Taking into account his past performance without suffering a major loss in ballpark effects, Gregorius should be counted on for a decent batting average with power upside. This resonates in his projection sets. Here’s how his numbers look taking all five sites provided on Fangraphs and averaging them out: 

  • Didi Gregorius 2020 Aggregate Projection - 134 games, 71 runs, 24 home runs, 81 RBI, five stolen bases, .265 average

When taking into account a potentially truncated season, here’s how these numbers would appear in different scenarios: 

  • 120 games - 63 runs, 21 home runs, 72 RBI, four stolen bases
  • 100 games - 53 runs, 18 home runs, 60 RBI, four stolen bases
  • 80 games - 42 runs, 14 home runs, 48 RBI, three stolen bases

There are many factors keeping the price down on Didi Gregorius . However, he should rebound towards his last three year slash lines without sacrificing power. Due to this, he makes for a solid target as a middle infielder with upside in 2020. 

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Statistical Credits: 

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com