Tim Anderson made history becoming the first player to lead the majors in hitting (.335 average) while finishing last among qualified hitters in walks (15 in 518 plate appearances). A late-season surge in multiple-hit games, with 22 of his last 39 contests, carried Anderson to the title. His batting average on balls in play boost of 110 points also buoyed Anderson’s gains in the category. Across 123 games, Anderson scored 81 runs with 18 home runs, 56 RBI and 17 stolen bases. A midseason high ankle sprain depressed his stolen base total, noting Anderson went 15-for-19 in attempts during the first half but only stole two more in the second half.  Anderson suffered his sprain on June 26th and did not return until late-July.

Planning for some regression to the mean in Anderson’s average could be offset by a higher stolen base total in 2020. Extrapolating numbers does not portend results going forward, but Anderson’s slated to hit leadoff for an improved White Sox lineup. Leury García scored 92 runs in 134 games batting first for Chicago last year spanning 570 at-bats. Runs and steals could keep Anderson productive in the upcoming season even if he hits closer to his career .276 average. However, once a player displays a skill, he owns it, so there’s hope Anderson can keep his average in the .280’s with 20-plus home run and stolen base upside.

Beneath Anderson’s league leading average, registered a strikeout percentage of 21 with a paltry 2.9 walk rate. It’s astounding to see Anderson notched a 45.2 O-Swing percentage but an 89.9 Z-Swing (in the strike zone) percentage. He’s aggressive but also owns enough hand-eye coordination to overcome it making contact in the strike zone. This will make his batting average volatile so last year’s outlier cannot be baked into projections at this point.

According to Statcast, Anderson recorded 391 batted ball events with 20 barrels (5.1-percent), an average exit velocity of 88.3 MPH and 8.7-degree launch angle. Anderson improved his average exit velocity by almost three MPH along with his sweet spot percentage by 4.3 points to 37.6-percent. His highest boost, other than BABIP, appears in his hard hit spike to 37.3-percent (up almost 10 points) and his career-best 28.4-percent line drive rate. Do not overlook Anderson’s 48.1-percent ground ball rate which combined with his inflated BABIP, points to migration to the mean in terms of batting average. Here’s Anderson’s spray chart from last season:

How much migration to the mean Anderson incurs makes a difference when valuing Anderson. His expected statistics do not look drastic with in terms of his .294 expected average and 461 expected slugging percentage. However, his on-base percentage could take a hit with Anderson’s expected weighted on-base average of .328 finishing 35 points below his actual. Here’s his zone profile courtesy of Statcast:

Signs of hope lie in Anderson improving his zone swing percentage to 75.1 percent, his zone contact rising by 5.5 points and although he upped his swing rate by 4.5 percent, Anderson reduced his swing percentage by 3.3 percentage points. He also used center field and the opposite fields more last year signaling a potential change in approach. Going with the pitch and using his speed could make his average in the .280’s or better sustainable.

Owning a career .276/.303/.435 slash can make him risky to trust. Keeping in mind all the gains in discipline and hitting atop the lineup in Chicago, Anderson remains a worthy target at his present price point. Especially if he can stay healthy in any sort of shortened season with stolen base upside displayed in the first half of 2019 prior to his injury. Viewing his projections for a full season, here’s his ranges across five sites:

  • 146-to-151 games, 78-to-85 runs, 20-to-22 home runs, 64-to-79 RBI, 17-to-21 stolen bases with a .274-to-.281 batting average

Using Garcia’s run totals from last year as the White Sox leadoff hitter, he averaged .16 runs per at-bat. This will reflect in the potential shortened season projection sets below using Anderson’s average of 598 at-bats across the five (95 runs):

  • 120 games: 76 runs, 17 home runs, 56 RBI, 17 stolen bases
  • 100 games: 63 runs, 14 home runs, 47 RBI, 14 stolen bases
  • 80 games: 51 runs, 11 home runs, 37 RBI, 11 stolen bases

Accounting for future scenarios will be pivotal to fantasy success. In terms of Tim Anderson , he will hit for a lower average but his ability to hit for decent power numbers with upside in speed make him an attractive target as a starting shortstop or middle infielder with upside in 2020 fantasy drafts. Target with clear expectations.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com