Not all breakthroughs appear the same. Christian Walker languished in the minors until last season’s opportunity to play first base in Arizona occurred. Previously labeled a Quad-A player, Walker made the most of his opportunity finishing second among all National League rookies with 29 home runs and 73 RBI. In fact, over 152 contests, Walker hit .259/.348/.476 with 86 runs and eight stolen bases as well. Walker recorded an 11.1 walk percentage and a 25.7 percent strikeout rate with a .217 isolated power. He notched a 20.1 percent home run per fly ball rate buoyed by the “bouncy” baseballs of 2019.

Still, Walker did not crumble during his first full season in the majors in terms of plate discipline. He finished with a 12.7 swinging strike percentage, 73.8 percent contact rate, 81.9 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percent and 28.2 O-Swing (out of the strike zone) percentage. Before deciding to fully invest in Walker as a corner infielder, his numbers align very closely to Jesús Aguilar ’s from 2018:

  • Aguilar 2018: 12.4 swinging strike percentage, 72.6 percent contact rate, 82.4 Z-Contact percentage, 35.6 O-Swing percentage, 10.2 walk percentage, 25.3 percent strikeout rate, .264 isolated power, 23.8 home run per fly ball percentage

This could translate to something or mean nothing, but when late-age breakouts happen, how the league adjusts affects future outcomes. Walker’s monthly splits come with some worries due to variance making him a tougher player to own in head-to-head formats. With a strong foundation around Walker, it’s also tough to dismiss his 2019, but planning on some regression seems prudent.

According to Statcast, Walker registered 375 batted ball events with 49 barrels (13.1 percent), a 91.1 MPH average exit velocity and 14.9-degree launch angle. He ranked 27th in the majors in total barrels and 36th in average exit velocity. Walker also owned a 48.4 percent hard hit rate along with a 34.1 sweet spot percentage within his batted ball data producing ground balls 42.7 percent of the time with a 27.5 fly ball percentage and 22.7 percent line drive rate. Here’s his spray chart from last year:

Moving to Walker’s expected statistics, his .263 expected batting average and .516 expected slugging provide fuel for believing in his production from last season. Walker reduced his swing and whiff percentages compared to his limited 2018 sample and his zone profile reflects how solid he fared in his first full major league season:

Noting the similarities within Walker and Aguilar’s seasons, trusting Walker to repeat comes with some concerns. Perhaps using Walker’s second half results makes for an accurate prognostication for the 2020 season. After the All-Star break, Walker recorded a 13.9 walk percentage, a 22.8 percent strikeout rate, a .253/.367/.440 slash line, a .187 isolated power and averaged a home run every 18.75 at-bats. Again, solid, but not spectacular.

When looking at his similar hitters on Statcast, Eugenio Suárez , new teammate Kole Calhoun and Paul Goldschmidt pop up. It’s intriguing to see Goldschmidt as a comparison since Walker basically replaced him in Arizona. Then, taking a look at their overall seasons, it heightens:

  • Paul Goldschmidt 2019: 97 runs, 34 home runs, 97 RBI, three stolen bases; .260/.346/.476
  • Christian Walker 2019: 86 runs, 29 home runs, 73 RBI, eight stolen bases; .259/.348/.476

Although it seems like cherry picking results, one cannot ignore how much their slash lines and power align with Walker stealing more bases. Price point aside, Walker will be under the microscope this year due to the lack of a track record but as drafts progress, he makes for an interesting pivot at corner infield or a late round utility option. Here are Walker’s projections:

  • Christian Walker 2020 Steamer Projections: 123 games, 513 plate appearances, 61 runs, 22 home runs, 70 RBI, four stolen bases; .248/.325/.454
  • Christian Walker 2020 ATC Projections: 128 games, 510 plate appearances, 68 runs, 23 home runs, 69 RBI, five stolen bases; .250/.330/.465
  • Christian Walker 2020 THE BAT Projections: 123 games, 532 plate appearances, 68 runs, 24 home runs, 74 RBI, four stolen bases; .246/.320/.459

A perfect storm of events paved the path of playing time for Christian Walker last year. If he can hold on to the gains he exhibited, Walker can remain the primary option at first base for Arizona and represent a worthy late-round grab in drafts. However, track his early season results in case there’s migration to the mean or bad luck which resulted in upset Aguilar owners last season. Underlying statistics support Walker, just use his second half results as a guide to avoid disappointment. Another solid, not spectacular season could be in the offing for Walker, price him accordingly.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty