For the second straight season, Josh Hader led all qualified relievers in strikeouts racking up 138 over 75.2 innings. His strikeout percentage rose to 47.8-percent but so did his home run per fly ball percentage to 21.4-percent. It’s amazing since Hader limited hitters to a 61 percent contact. Of course, batters cannot hit home runs when they swing and miss. Hader owned the best swinging strike percentage among qualified relievers of 22.7 percent. A perk to Hader’s resume, he tied for third in the majors with Aroldis Chapman with 37 saves.

Hader owned value due to his immense strikeout totals but also recorded a 2.62 ERA, 2.36 xFIP and 0.81 WHIP. Beneath these numbers, Hader recorded the best SIERA (1.78) and best strikeouts minus walks percentage (40.8) among relievers. Elevating fastballs and deploying a devastating slider fuels Hader’s arsenal. Here’s a look at his pitch plot from last season:

According to Statcast, Hader yielded 127 batted ball events including 16 barrels (12.6-percent), an average exit velocity of 90.4 MPH and a 26.7-degree launch angle. Seeing the launch angle explains why Hader gives up a higher number of fly balls and line drives compared to fewer ground balls. It’s tantamount for Hader to maintain his strikeout rates to succeed in high leverage. With this in mind, here’s his swing and miss chart from last year:

Noting his swings and misses, Hader generated a 49.8 strikeout percentage, a 40.9 whiff percent and a 34.6 put-away percentage with his four-seam fastball. His slider produced a 52.3 strikeout rate with a 46.3 whiff percent and a 27.4 put-away percent. Hader upped his zone swing percentage by 6.9 percent and cut his zone contact by four percent. He also raised his swing percent by 6.7 points with his whiff rate rising by 2.7 percent.

With this in mind, Hader’s expected statistics reinforce his numbers as well. His expected batting average of .155 with a .321 expected slugging and an expected weighted on-base average of .232 which resided 15 points below his actual one. Here’s his zone profile:

For Hader to continue his success, he needs to mitigate home runs and traffic on the basepaths. It’s apparent he can accrue strikeouts but he traded weak contact for solid contact and barrels last year. Delving into the put-away statistic, it measures a pitcher’s ability to record a strikeout in two strike counts. Hader closes hitters out but sometimes struggles early in counts when hitters guess correctly on his fastball. With this in mind, here’s Hader’s isolated power against last year on the first pitch:

It does not jump off the page, but Hader increased his first pitch strike percentage to 63-percent from 60.5 percent rate in 2018. First pitch fastball hunters who guess correctly impacted Hader. There’s also the factor of Yasmani Grandal leaving Milwaukee taking his superior framing abilities with him. Hader could benefit from first pitch strikes atop the strike zone and not at the bottom as the chart illustrates.

Knowing how well Hader’s done in high leverage since his debut in 2017, he’s ascended atop the draft targets at closer for 2020. Here’s his projections from three different sites. Please note, ZiPS does not include saves in its projection system:

  • Josh Hader 2020 Steamer Projection - 4-3, 28 saves, 65 IP, 106:26 K:BB, 2.95 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
  • Josh Hader 2020 ATC Projection - 4-3, 35 saves, 75 IP, 131:26 K:BB, 2.87 ERA, 0.99 WHIP
  • Josh Hader 2020 ZiPS Projection - 6-2, 73.1 IP, 133:28 K:BB, 2.45 ERA, 0.94 WHIP

Even with some migration to the mean, Hader’s dominant strikeout rates over the last two years cannot be ignored. His Steamer numbers seem too low with his ATC and ZiPS more in line with realistic strikeout totals. Even if Hader’s WHIP increases, his ERA below three with a career 44.6 strikeout percentage. Only caveat remains Josh Hader being in trade talks this winter. It’s likely the Brewers will not deal him, but if push comes to shove, he could be dealt at some point during his arbitration window. Unless Milwaukee offers him a contract, it’s a factor. Targeting Hader makes sense due to his strikeout totals, if he repeats 30-plus saves, it’s icing on the cake.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

BrooksBaseball.net

Steamerprojections.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborksi

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen