With fantasy owners searching for upside at catcher, Sean Murphy will enter 2020 as an upside target. Murphy launched four home runs in his limited sample last year in only 60 plate appearances with a .245/.333/.566 slash line. He scored 14 runs while driving in eight for Oakland after his promotion from Triple-A. Murphy only appeared in 31 games at Triple-A before his ascension to the majors with a robust .308/.386/.625 slash hitting ten home runs with 30 RBI in only 140 plate appearances.

It can be tough to trust a catcher with only 99 games played between Double and Triple-A. Here’s his spray chart from the two levels over the last two seasons:

During 2018, Murphy hit .288/.358/.498 a walk rate of eight percent and a 16.3-percent strikeout rate. Last year at Triple-A, Murphy owned a 10.7-percent walk rate and a 22.1-percent strikeout rate. It’s interesting Murphy pulled the ball in 51.4 percent of his batted ball data with Oakland last year, but his heat map from 2018 and 2019 in the minors displays a different tendency:

Due to his limited sample, it’s going to be difficult to predict how Murphy will hit over a full season in the majors. His 20-game sample from 2019 yields a 12.1-percent swinging strike rate, 74.4-percent contact rate and 85.7-percent Z-Contact (in the strike zone) rate. But, Murphy only generated three barrels within his 37 batted ball events with Oakland. A positive, Murphy produced a 90.7 MPH average exit velocity with a 37.8-percent hard hit rate.

Beneath his surface numbers, Murphy’s expected statistics hint at some regression in 2020 over a full season. Murphy finished with a .238 expected batting average, .476 expected slugging and a weighted on-base average 30 points below his actual. Again, small sample sizes will not tell a full story, but his expected rates need to be accounted for.

As for his batted ball data, Murphy’s launch angle of 7.3 degrees resulted in a 48.6-percent ground ball rate in the majors. Hope lies in the hard-hit percentage but if Murphy does not elevate baseballs more in 2020, his power could be capped. Then there’s the matter of him staying healthy. Murphy appeared in 98 games in 2017, 71 games in 2018 and in 61 games between three levels last year.

Transitioning to his projections, like any unproven rookie, they provide quite a range of outcomes:

  • Sean Murphy 2020 Steamer Projection - 90 games, 358 plate appearances, 44 runs, 14 home runs, 46 RBI, two stolen bases; .250/.313/.441
  • Sean Murphy 2020 ATC Projection - 97 games, 367 plate appearances, 48 runs, 13 home runs, 46 RBI, stolen base; .250/.317/.432
  • Sean Murphy 2020 THE BAT Projection - 97 games, 378 plate appearances, 40 runs, 12 home runs, 39 RBI, stolen base; .224/.290/.378

At his present average draft position, those investing in Sean Murphy need him to reach the Steamer projection to break even. It’s very possible he can attain the slash line with the 14 home runs, but planning on a number higher than either could be a reach. THE BAT represents the low tide of projections with worries about Murphy’s ability to hit for average over his first full season with Oakland. There’s pedigree and Murphy plays terrific defense. His offense could struggle early getting to know the pitching staff making him a nice second-half target if the adjustments occur.

Invest with eyes wide open before coronating Murphy as a sure fire breakout. It’s possible but heed his expected batting average from 2019 along with the projections before paying full retail noting it takes time for catchers to reach their ceiling on offense transitioning to the majors.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty