Overcoming chronic myeloid leukemia makes last year a success for Carlos Carrasco no matter his results. First, Carrasco lost time after being struck in the face by a line drive in April, then his battle with leukemia reduced his innings to 80 in 2019. He made 12 starts and 11 appearances out of the bullpen winning six games with one save. However, Carrasco’s 5.29 ERA, 3.50 xFIP and 1.35 WHIP resided outside of his normal ratio statistics.

Carrasco recorded a 28.2 percent strikeout rate using his slider more than usual and the reduced workload allowed him to notch a 4.7 percent walk rate. He struggled with some bad luck yielding a .354 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and generating fewer ground balls (40.8 percentage). Luckily, Carrasco carried over his 14.9 percent swinging strike rate. His contact rate rose but the Z-Contact (in the strike zone) lowered. Overall, an odd year for Carrasco which feels like an outlier in his career.

Prior to last season, Carrasco won 35 games between 2017 and 2018, accruing almost 400 innings. During his ten years in Cleveland, Carrasco owns an 85-69 record with a 3.82 ERA and 1,223 strikeouts in 230 games (183 starts). With an eye on a rebound in 2020, Carrasco lost time at the start of spring training with a hip issue, but remains on track to open the season in the Indians rotation.

According to Statcast, Carrasco struggled with hard contact in 2019 allowing 227 batted ball events, 29 barrels (12.8 percent), an average exit velocity of 90.8 MPH and a 12.9-degree launch angle. For perspective, Carrasco limited hitters to 30 barrels among his 504 batted ball events in 2018. Perhaps the grip on the baseball from last year affected Carrasco or he never fully bounced back from his health issues allowed him to work with his best stuff. Here’s his arsenal with an eye on Carrasco using more sliders than fastballs due to his bullpen role:

Using elevated fastballs with change-ups and slider down in the zone contributed to his swinging strikes. Carrasco recorded a 40.7 percent strikeout rate with his slider, a 30.4 percent strikeout rate with his change-up and only a 21.9 percent strikeout rate with his four-seam fastball. With no discernible changes in velocity, Carrasco seems likely to bounce back going forward, health permitting. Here’s his zone profile:

Carrasco needs to leave fewer pitches center cut as evidenced in his barrels per ball in play chart. Generating more ground balls will be a key to his success, so track his air outs versus ground ball outs in the spring. As long as his pitch velocity aligns with the last two years, a return to fantasy relevance seems assured.

Looking at his projections from three sites, they agree with this premise:

  • Carlos Carrasco 2020 Steamer Projection - 12 - 9, 173 IP, 190:42 K:BB, 3.81 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
  • Carlos Carrasco 2020 ATC Projection - 11 - 8, 155 IP, 176:38 K:BB, 3.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
  • Carlos Carrasco 2020 THE BAT Projection - 12 - 9, 171 IP, 195:43 K:BB, 3.82 ERA, 1.15 WHIP

Rooting for Carlos Carrasco remains easy due to his positivity and ability to defeat his battle with leukemia. As for fantasy, Carrasco at a depressed price point sets up as one of the few pitcher bargains given he reaches the projected 170 innings by Steamer or THE BAT. In fact, there’s a chance for strikeout upside if his four-seam returns to its 2018 level of effectiveness. Targeting Carrasco as a second fantasy pitcher with upside makes perfect sense this season.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty