It’s no surprise Franmil Reyes initiated a breakout in one of baseball’s most historic hitter friendly environments in 2019. As a sweetener, he’s shifted to the American League where he can also log at-bats as a designated hitter. Apparently, this does not satisfy Reyes who worked all off-season shedding 18 pounds in an attempt to be leaner and faster to play a corner outfield spot. As for last season, Reyes launched 37 home runs in 150 games driving in 81 runs with a palatable .249/.310/.512 slash line.

Although his final line appears rosy, there’s some growing pains accompanying his power surge. Reyes became more aggressive, yes it’s possible, raising his swinging strike percentage to 17.8 percent while his contact and Z-contact (in the strike zone) rates declined. Beneath his totals, Reyes owned an 8.6 walk percentage with a 28.5 strikeout percent offset by an enticing .263 isolated power. Make no mistake, when Reyes runs into a pitch, it gets crushed. For the visual crowd, check out his first swings at camp:

 

 

Over his last 31 contests, Reyes settled in with Cleveland hitting a robust .287/.366/.583 with a .296 isolated power, eight doubles and eight home runs driving in 28 runs. He walked 14 times in this sample while striking out in 37 of his 108 at-bats. Reyes still hit the ball into the ground too often with a 50 percent ground ball rate but his 51.4 hard hit percentage and 44.4 home run per fly ball percent proves to be eye-popping.

Shifting to Statcast data, Reyes recorded 345 batted ball events with 51 barrels (14.8 percent), a 93.3 MPH average exit velocity and 9.5 degree launch angle. Critics will point to his low launch which depresses his power a bit and it’s true. However, Reyes ranked in the 99th percentile in baseball in exit velocity and the 98th percentile in hard hit percentage (51 percent). When Reyes does elevate a baseball, his average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives jumps to 98.2 MPH, fourth among major league hitters. Here’s his spray chart from last year:

Unlike many of his peers, Reyes does not rely on pulling the ball to enhance his power. In fact, he hits more up the middle than to any other field. This not only gets illustrated above, but shows in his 44.5 percentage of batted balls straight in his profile on Statcast compared to a 31.2 pull percentage. Delving into his predictive data, Reyes finished with a .264 expected batting average, .539 expected slugging (89th percentile) and .360 weighted on-base average (22 points above his actual). This portends potential positive migration the mean as evidenced in his zone profile:

Not only does Reyes get to wear red with Cleveland, but check out the sea of red in the charts above. Reyes improved his zone swing percentage but lost some contact points in it. Not disturbing as long as he keeps hunting pitches in the zone. He’s going to swing and miss, no doubt. Both his swing and whiff percentages rose last year but by egregious amounts. According to Statcast, Reyes owned a 43.8 ground ball rate (down 6.5 percent compared to 2018), a 26.7 fly ball rate and 25.5 line-drive percent (up 2.6 points). Just an uptick in fly balls from his ground ball propensity could unlock a 40-home run season even if the ball proves to be less “bouncy”.

Taking all of this into account, Reyes sits on the precipice of another step forward in his development. Being in the best shape of his life helps, but fantasy owners will want to track his air outs in spring training compared to his ground outs. Any hints of Reyes trying to elevate more baseballs or hitting line drives would signal the alarm to move him up draft boards. In fact, he will be a very intriguing target for power in rounds nine or later in 12 or 15 team drafts. Here’s his projections from three different systems:

  • Franmil Reyes 2020 Steamer Projection - 136 games, 572 plate appearances, 80 runs, 36 home runs, 93 RBI, stolen base; .260/.329/.517
  • Franmil Reyes 2020 ATC Projection - 144 games, 573 plate appearances, 36 home runs, 89 RBI; .260/.326/.518
  • Franmil Reyes 2020 THE BAT Projection - 136 games, 585 plate appearances, 75 runs, 31 home runs, 92 RBI, stolen base; .253/.324/.483

Different strokes for different folks, but it’s apparent with health Franmil Reyes will launch at least 30 home runs. Projections set the baseline and it’s up to the player to exceed them. Taking the over on home runs, calling 40 this year, with his slash lines aligning on the Steamer and ATC congruence. Although his breakout started, Reyes reaches a new level in 2020 even if the fantasy community remains slow embracing it. Just means better value for those who believe.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty