When a player signs a contract, it provides a ripple effect to his value along with impacting a lineup. Marcell Ozuna agreed to a one-year deal with Atlanta keeping Ronald Acuna Jr. at leadoff, Ozzie Albies hitting second and Freddie Freeman third. It also insures Ozuna accrues counting statistics as the cleanup hitter in a potent Braves batting order. Despite missing 28 games with a fractured finger in 2019, Ozuna played in 130 games with 549 plate appearances, 80 runs, 29 home runs, 89 RBI, 12 stolen bases and a .243/.330/.474 slash line. Although his slash lines suffered a bit, Ozuna’s underlying data provides hope for a rebound at a discount due to his present price point.

One also cannot overlook Ozuna’s one of 16 major league players to record at least 80 RBI in each of the last three seasons or his career high in steals last year. With Ozuna’s plate discipline metrics aligning with past results, delving too deeply will not be required. He owned an 11.5 swinging strike percentage, 74.3 contact rate and 86 percent Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percentage. Solid, not spectacular.

Transitioning to his batted ball data reveals an unlucky season for Ozuna in 2019. He registered 372 batted ball events with 47 barrels (12.6 percent), a 91.6 MPH average exit velocity (17th in the majors) and a 13.5 degree launch angle. Ozuna upped his launch angle with tremendous results cutting his ground ball percent by six points while adding five percent more line drives. In spite accruing 100 fewer batted ball events compared to 2018, he recorded more barrels along with a barrel percentage two times above league average.

Ozuna’s strong barrel numbers fuel his expected statistics which hint at potential upside in 2020. According to Statcast, Ozuna’s expected batting average of .288, expected slugging of .548 and expected weighted on-base average of .382 (46 points higher than his actual wOBA) resonate within his zone profile:

Ozuna also finished in the top-five percent among his peers with a robust 49.5 hard hit percentage. This translates to 179 batted ball events with a 95 MPH or better exit velocity and a more alluring 96.3 average exit velocity of his fly balls and line drives. Raising his launch angle seemed to affect his batting average on balls in play, but if he carries over this approach to 2020, positive migration to the mean should ensue. Which makes him intriguing.

Over the last three years, Ozuna appeared in 438 games with 1,861 plate appearances, 243 runs, 89 home runs, 307 RBI, 16 stolen bases and a .281/.345/.487 slash line. This presents a very solid baseline of production resulting in an average of 620 plate appearances, 81 runs, 30 home runs, 102 RBI and five steals per year in this time frame. Ozuna’s spike in stolen bases last year proves intriguing, but not sure a full carry over will occur in Atlanta. Here’s his spray chart from the last three years with his new ballpark as the overlay:

Before looking at Ozuna’s projections, Atlanta cleanup hitters last year produced 99 RBI with 100 runs in 596 at-bats. They recorded a cumulative .265/.376/.510 with Josh Donaldson getting the majority of games hitting fourth. With this in mind, along with Ozuna’s last three year averages, his projections seem spot on in some regards but light in others:

  • Marcell Ozuna 2020 Steamer Projection - 147 games, 634 plate appearances, 82 runs, 31 home runs, 100 RBI, seven stolen bases; .276/.343/.495
  • Marcell Ozuna ATC Projection - 141 games, 605 plate appearances, 80 runs, 30 home runs, 98 RBI, nine stolen bases: .271/.341/.489

Trying to forecast his stolen base total seems tough. Planning on the seven or nine in the above projections does not seem out of reach but will depend on how aggressive he remains with his move to Atlanta. Ozuna’s runs seem a bit low so upping them to 90 enhances his value. Prior to his signing with the Braves, Ozuna owned an average draft position after 100 but it’s likely to adjust as the market normalizes. However, buying into a rebound in batting average with the potential for a 90 run, 100 RBI and a 30-plus home run season makes sense. Heed the Statcast data, the three year rates and his steady production for a bounce back in 2020.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen