With fantasy owners trying to secure stolen bases in the early rounds, somehow a stable commodity in the category does not receive a bump in average draft position. Over the last three years, Whit Merrifield ranks sixth in stolen bases with 99, one behind Jonathan Villar who will be taken in the first three rounds of most drafts. However, Merrifield possesses better plate discipline and a higher projected average. Volume of steals will propel risky profiles higher in drafts, so owners will need to determine how to roster stolen bases without overpaying or taking a one-trick pony like Mallex Smith .

Delving deeper into Merrifield’s numbers, he’s only the second right-handed hitter to lead the majors in hits for consecutive seasons matching Kirby Puckett (1988-1989). While accruing 206 hits in 2019, Merrifield hit safely in 129 of his 162 contests. He’s also notched 58 multi-hit games dating back to July of 2018. More impressive, Merrifield’s registered 30 or more hits in nine straight months not including March or October. Since 1936, Merffield’s the third player to record at least 10 triples, 20 stolen bases, 40 doubles and 200 hits in a season. Also accomplishing the feat, Johnny Damon (2000) and Nomar Garciaparra (1992).

Last season, Merrifield slashed .302/.348/.463 with 105 runs, 16 home runs, 74 RBI and 20 stolen bases in all 162 games over 735 plate appearances. He owned an 8.9-percent swinging strike rate with an 81.7-percent contact rate. Although his Z-Contact percentage dropped for the second straight season, Merrifield remains above league average (84.9-percent) in the category. On Statcast, Merrifield’s zone contact of 85.8-percent sits almost three points above average.

Being more of a contact hitter, his batted ball data does not jump off the page. Merrifield recorded 559 batted ball events with 24 barrels (4.3-percent) with an average exit velocity of 86.4 MPH and a 15.3-degree launch angle. Once again, Merrifield overachieved in comparison to his expected numbers with a .288 expected batting average and .435 expected slugging. Here’s his zone profile from last year:

With a “bouncier” baseball in 2019, Merrifield’s power bounced back with 16 home runs. Here’s his spray chart of all balls in plays last season:

While many owners will be busy trying to find steals, runs and average continue to get overlooked. Among qualified hitters over the last three seasons, Merrfield ranks 25th in runs (273) and 13th in average (.298). Upside may not be teeming with Merrifield, but sometimes a stable veteran with proven results adds nicely to a team build in a draft. Especially if targeting someone like Joey Gallo or Matt Olson for power in order to cushion their average.

Steamer seems to bake the aging process in his projection along with the expected batting average from Statcast:

  • Whit Merrifield 2020 Steamer Projection - 150 games, 688 plate appearances, 89 runs, 14 home runs, 65 RBI, 23 stolen bases; .282/.337/.437

Despite a .298/.348/.453 slash the last three years, Merrifield’s projection above seems light in terms of average. Using this as a baseline though could be nice. Since he’s been able to provide a better batting average than expected, it’s likely Merrifield could hit above .290 again in 2020. When trying to discern his ceiling, how much he will run plays a pivotal part. In 2019, Merrifield only attempted 30 steals compared to 55 in 2018. Perhaps a healthy Adalberto Mondesi will induce Merrifield to be more aggressive on the bases but new manager Mike Matheny could cap stolen base upside. It’s going to be a year of adjustments when projecting how often the Royals will run.

Pay for the Steamer projection and profit if Whit Merrifield hits for a higher average with a return to 25 or more stolen bases. However, his days of 30 or more could be numbered. Plan accordingly.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

MLB.com - Game notes

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com