Often in player development, catcher takes longer as a position to emerge as a benefit for fantasy in terms of production. Carson Kelly did not display power upside in the minors and started slowly last season. However, he finished his debut with Arizona tying the team record with 18 home runs as a catcher. From May fourth on, among catchers with at least 200 plate appearances, Kelly ranked first in on-base plus slugging percentage (.887) along with second in on-base percentage (.373) and slugging (.514). Delving into his minor league numbers, Kelly displayed elite on-base abilities with a 37.3 on-base percentage across three seasons at Triple-A in 755 plate appearances. He also owned a 13.9-percent strikeout rate versus a 12.2-percent walk rate. That’s pretty good.

It’s the power surge which surprised last year. Kelly’s previous career high was ten at Triple-A in 2017 over 280 plate appearances. He accomplished this with an 11.8-percent walk rate and a 14.3-percent strikeout rate. His plate discipline could prevent regression in Kelly’s projections but trying to predict his power potential will determine his baseline and ceiling.

According to Statcast, Kelly recorded 236 batted ball events with 21 barrels (8.9-percent), an 89 MPH average exit velocity and a 14.3-degree launch angle. Kelly’s 40.9-percent hard hit rate proves intriguing but with the knowledge of the juiced baseballs from 2019, this could adjust going forward. He registered a 37.3-percent ground ball rate, 29.7-percent fly ball rate, and 26.3-percent line drive rate while pulling the ball 36.4-percent of the time. Knowing Kelly hit 18 home runs without giving up plate discipline or pulling the ball hints at encouragement. Here’s his spray chart from last season:

There’s almost no way Kelly can record 37 of his 77 hits for extra-bases again, but does he need this to remain valuable? Latent power can be carried over as players in the past prove. Hope lies in his launch angle in 2019 with the hard-hit rate and control of the strike zone. Kelly also registered a .247 expected batting average and .466 expected slugging. His zone profile suggests he can repeat his slash line from last season with a chance for gains:

Transitioning to his discipline, Kelly recorded an 8.6-percent swinging strike rate, 79-percent contact rate and 86.8-percent Z-Contact (in the strike zone). These all rank above average compared to his peers at catcher. This also resonates on Statcast where Kelly’s 41.8 swing percentage sits almost five points below all major league hitters and his whiff percent also ranks as better than league average.

Even if Kelly’s power ebbs back towards the mean, his strong approach and continued growth as he moves into his power peak makes him a worthy investment. Here’s his projections from two different sites:

  • 2020 Steamer Projection - 99 games, 390 plate appearances, 43 runs, 14 home runs, 46 RBI, stolen base; .249/.347/.428
  • 2020 ZiPS Projection - 378 plate appearances, 45 runs, 13 home runs, 45 RBI; .248/.345/.419

Carson Kelly makes for an intriguing catcher, but his upside could be capped by playing time and migration to the mean. Both of his projections represent a fitting baseline which he could exceed, but there’s no guarantee. Target Kelly due to his discipline and potential step forward in power. Even a repeat of last year’s 18 home runs would be welcomed by his owners. Not sure a huge step forward exists, but if he hits 20 home runs with a .255-ish average and a bump in counting statistics, he owns upside versus his present price point.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski

Steamerprojections.com