What a difference a year makes. Last preseason, owners worried about DJ LeMahieu migrating from Coors Field to Yankee Stadium. Of course, many overlooked the patient approach and ability to hit the ball to center along with right field transitioning well on a move to New York. LeMahieu recorded career highs in hits (197), runs (109), home runs (26) and RBI (102). He also led the majors in multi-hit games with 61 fueling his .327/.375/.518 slash line.

Of course, the ripple effect of LeMahieu’s breakout reflects in his draft price. Almost an afterthought in 2019, he’s risen to a top-75 pick. Being able to use him in five fantasy positions adds to his appeal. LeMahieu appeared in 28 games at first base, 66 at second base and 47 at third making him eligible to play all three positions in 20-game minimum leagues plus middle-and-corner infield spots.

In order to determine his outlook, how much regression occurs in the power along with the effects on his counting statistics will be key. However, LeMahieu owns elite discipline metrics which will offset some of the migration to the mean for fantasy. Remember, batting average remains a category in most leagues, despite its flaws. Last year, LeMahieu recorded a seven-percent walk rate with a 13.7-percent strikeout rate. His swinging strike percentage of 6.6 sits well below the league average of 11.2-percent. On Fangraphs, LeMahieu owned an 85.5-percent contact rate, 30.2 O-Swing (outside the strike zone) percentage and 91.8-percent Z-Contact (in the strike zone) rate. Both his contact and Z-Contact sit almost nine and seven points over league average respectively in the categories.

Keeping in mind how well LeMahieu did in regards to his plate discipline, check out how he did versus pitch types courtesy of Statcast:

  • Versus Fastballs - .324 average, 12.9-percent strikeout rate, 12.8-percent whiff rate, 11 home runs
  • Versus Breaking Pitches - .319 average, 17.8-percent strikeout rate, 22.3-percent whiff rate, nine home runs
  • Versus Offspeed Pitches - .392 average, 7.3-percent strikeout, 17.1-percent whiff rate, six home runs

On Statcast, LeMahieu recorded 517 batted ball events with 39 barrels (7.5-percent), a 91.7 MPH average exit velocity (19th-best in the majors) and a 6.7-degree launch angle. His batted ball data included a 49.7-percent ground ball rate, with a 17.7-percent fly rate and a robust 29.8-percent line drive rate. He pulled the ball only 25-percent of his batted ball data with 41.4-percent straight and 33.7-percent to the opposite field. Here’s LeMahieu’s spray chart from last year:

Repeating his 26 home runs will be difficult. However, LeMahieu registered very impressive expected statistics. His .324 expected batting average ranked third in baseball and he also recorded a .529 expected slugging and .379 expected weighted on-base average. Check out his zone profile from last season:

LeMahieu’s 47.2-percent hard hit rate fueled his surge in expected numbers along with his actual stats. Almost in direct line with his Fangraphs numbers, LeMahieu’s zone contact on Statcast of 89.2-percent sits seven points above league average plus his whiff rate of 16-percent resides eight points below league average.

Over the last three years, LeMahieu owns a .305/.358/.452 slash line with 295 runs, 49 home runs, 228 RBI and 17 stolen bases in 1,970 plate appearances spanning 429 games. Forecasting a collapse in average seems near sighted but the power gains may not carry over depending on the “bounciness” of the baseballs used by the major leagues. Without being privy to this, here’s LeMahieu’s projections from two different sites:

  • D.J. LeMahieu 2020 Steamer Projection - 150 games, 682 plate appearances, 93 runs, 19 home runs, 74 RBI, seven stolen bases; .285/.345/.434
  • D.J. LeMahieu 2020 ZiPS Projection - 633 plate appearances, 94 runs, 17 home runs, 75 RBI, six stolen bases; .293/.345/.440

Investing in LeMahieu for 2020 comes with a bit of risk. Paying full retail for a repeat feels like a trap. Although his multiple positional eligibility will be appealing, along with the insulation his batting average provides, can he return value as a top-75 selection? LeMahieu would need to hit 20 or more home runs with 90 runs and closer to 90 RBI to do so. It’s within the realm of outcomes, but it’s a slippery slope. If he reaches the Steamer projection, LeMahieu’s not quite worth the reach at his present price point. What a difference a year makes.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski