Top prospects flourishing in the majors makes investing in talented rookies alluring. In last year’s average draft position, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ranked among the top five third basemen taken in live drafts. Fantasy owners ignored the possibility Guerrero Jr. faced a possibility of losing time for team control purposes which worked itself out during a preseason oblique injury insuring he would miss at least the first 15 games of 2019. Guerrero Jr. made his much-anticipated debut with Toronto on April 26th with a double in four at-bats.

Guerrero Jr. appeared in 126 games with the Blue Jays. He scored 52 runs with 15 home runs, 69 RBI and a .272/.339/.433 slash line. Not quite worth a top-50 pick in many drafts. Beneath his surface statistics, Guerrero Jr. recorded an 8.9 walk percentage, 17.7 strikeout rate and .162 isolated power.

Using his batted ball data on Fangraphs, Guerrero Jr. finished with a 17.3 line drive percentage, 49.6 ground ball percent and 33.1 fly ball rate. His home run per fly ball percentage of 12.1 did not overwhelm fantasy owners. He pulled the ball in just over 41 percent of his batted balls in play with a 34.9 hard hit percentage.

According to Statcast, Guerrero Jr. produced 375 batted ball events with 29 barrels (7.7 percent) with an average exit velocity of 89.4 MPH. Guerrero Jr. notched an average exit velocity of 93.2 MPH on his line drives and fly balls, which tied Eugenio Suárez . However, Guerrero Jr.’s average launch angle of 6.7 degrees caps his power upside. For a comparison, Suarez owns a 17.8 degree average launch angle. While most focused on the potential of Guerrero Jr. for 2019, perhaps too many (myself included) ignored his career 1.1 ground out to fly out ratio during his minor league career. For as well as Guerrero Jr. hit in the minors, as evidenced in his career slash of .331.414/.531 in the minors, he averaged a home run every 24.4 at-bats.

However, Guerrero Jr. recorded the highest max exit velocity of 118.9 MPH last season. If he’s to unlock his power potential, Guerrero Jr. will need to improve his launch angle to maximize it. Hope remains, check out his chart courtesy of Statcast:

Breaking down this chart, Guerrero registered 155 of his 375 batted ball events with a launch angle of zero or a negative number. This represents 41 percent of his batted ball profile. However, observe his expected slugging percentage when Guerrero Jr. elevates a baseball:

  • Launch angle of five degrees - .561 xSLG, 27 events
  • Launch angle of 10 degrees - .846 xSLG, 16 events
  • Launch angle of 15 degrees - 1.078 xSLG, 27 events
  • Launch angle of 20 degrees - 1.024 xSLG, 29 events
  • Launch angle of 25 degrees - 1.561 xSLG, 26 events
  • Launch angle of 30 degrees - 1.120 xSLG, 20 events

It’s obvious someone in the Blue Jays organization will try to get Guerrero Jr. to increase his launch angle to maximize his talent. If he could put more baseballs into play through line drives and fly balls, Guerrero Jr. could explode in terms of power production. Only twice in the minors did Guerrero Jr. record a ground ball percentage below 40, most recently in Double-A. Across 266 plate appearances in 2018, Guerrero Jr. generated line drives in 22.6 percent of his batted balls, a 39.4 ground ball percentage and a 38 percent fly ball rate. This distribution would be a key to a career year for Guerrero Jr. in the majors.

In terms of plate discipline, Guerrero Jr. manages the strike zone well. Despite his early struggles in the majors, he notched a walk percentage just shy of nine percent. Guerrero Jr. owned a 10.6 swinging strike percentage with a 77.3 contact rate and 31.6 O-Swing (swings and misses outside the strike zone) percent. According to Statcast, Guerrero Jr. achieved a 69.4 zone swing percentage and zone contact rate of 84.1 percent. Yet, he topped the ball in 40 percent of his batted ball data. Again, Guerrero Jr. cannot surge in power without changing his launch angle.

Guerrero Jr. arrived in the majors with a pedigree of driving the ball to all fields. Here’s his spray chart of hits from 2019:

For an idea of what Guerrero Jr. can do to a baseball when he elevates it, with credit to MLB’s YouTube channel:

Over his last 56 games, Guerrero Jr. hit .310/.364/.486 with 13 doubles, two triples, seven home runs and 43 RBI in 236 plate appearances. Within this sample, Guerrero Jr. walked 7.6 percent of the time with a 16.9 strikeout percentage and a .176 isolated power. It hints at his upside in average, but again points out the power could take time to develop at a rate fantasy owners prefer.

Before delving into his projections, Statcast noted Guerrero Jr.’s expected batting average at .263 last season with a .437 expected slugging and .363 expected weighted on-base average on contact (xwoBACON). Here’s his zone profile from last season:

Steamer projects Vlad Guerrero Jr. for 143 games, 513 at-bats, 79 runs, 24 home runs, 80 RBI, three stolen bases (insert thinking emoji) and a .295/.363/.501 slash line. Guerrero Jr.’s more likely to hit .300 in 2020 than 30 or more home runs. Unless a change occurs in his approach regarding launch angles. No one will forget the power display Guerrero Jr. put on during the 2019 home run derby. He owns the capability, bat speed and power to develop into a top flight power hitter akin to J.D. Martinez in his peak. It just may not materialize in 2020. Guerrero Jr.’s name, pedigree and talent means he will not come at a bargain in terms of auction price or average draft position. Through two months of NFBC draft data, he’s being taken ahead of Eugenio Suárez (49 home runs in 2019), Yoán Moncada (25 home runs, 10 stolen bases in 2019) and Matt Chapman (36 home runs in 2019). None of these players own Guerrero Jr.’s upside in batting average, but if it’s counting statistics one’s searching for, these players at a lower price point may provide more bang for the buck.

Every roster comes together differently. Guerrero Jr. will need to overcome his lineup while he harnesses his massive talent in the majors. In 2019, the aggregate cleanup hitters in Toronto scored 76 runs with 74 RBI in 625 at-bats. Yes, they did not receive a full season of Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio hitting atop the lineup, plus the collection of fourth hitters notched a paltry .205 average with a .680 on-base plus slugging percentage. All reports indicate Guerrero Jr.’s worked out this off-season primed to play a full season in 2020. Track his approach in spring very closely, especially his air outs versus ground outs. Average in spring does not really matter, it’s going to be Guerrero Jr.’s distribution of batted ball data. It will be a key for his future growth as a fantasy impact player. It may be one year away, but it’s percolating.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

MiLB.com