Predicting outcomes for Yu Darvish can be precarious. Injuries, arsenal tweaks and performance prove volatile for the talented pitcher. Last season, Darvish won six of his 14 decisions with 229 strikeouts against 56 walks in 178.2 innings. He recorded a 3.98 ERA, 3.39 xFIP and 1.10 WHIP during his 31 starts. Within this, Darvish registered a 31.3 strikeout percentage and a 7.7 walk rate. Darvish also notched career bests in swinging strike percentage (13.4 percent) and in O-Swing (swings and misses outside the strike zone) rate (33.8 percent).

Perusing his batted ball profile, Darvish increased his ground ball percentage almost eight percent in 2019 while cutting down on fly balls by six percent. However, home runs plagued Darvish which reflected in his career worst 22.8 home run per fly ball percent against. However, a tweak in Darvish’s arsenal unlocked his surge from June until the end of the season.

First, here’s a look at his pitch usage from last season courtesy of Statcast:

Darvish used fewer sliders and ramped up his cutter usage at the end of May. Starting on June 10th, he recorded a 3.45 ERA, 2.73 xFIP and 0.85 WHIP over his last 112.1 innings. His strikeout percentage rose to 34.7 percent, his walk rate lowered to 2.8 percent fueling his 151:12 K:BB in this time frame and grew his swinging strike percentage to 13.7 percent. Within this sample, Darvish finished in the top three in the majors in xFIP, WHIP and strikeouts minus walks percentage (K-BB).

Here’s an illustration of Darvish’s arsenal in a pitch plot:

Noting his career high in swinging strike percentage, here’s Darvish’s swing and miss chart:

As alluded to, the transition to the cutter over the slider resulted in more swings and misses for Darvish as evidenced in the illustration above. Statcast indicators also reinforce the changes in his arsenal. He recorded a .223 expected batting average against (xBA) last season and a .397 expected slugging (xSLG). Here’s his six main pitches with their results from 2019:

  • Cutter - 36.5 percent usage, .195 xBA, .341 xSLG, .275 xwOBA, 28.7 strikeout percentage, 31.1 whiff percent
  • Four-seam Fastball - 26.8 percent usage, .278 xBA, .594 xSLG, .392 xwOBA, 24.7 strikeout percentage, 29 whiff percent
  • Slider - 13.8 percent usage, .185 xBA, .406 xSLG, .268 xwOBA, 43.8 strikeout percentage, 39.2 whiff percent
  • Sinker - 11.7 percent usage, .265 xBA, .510 xSLG, .350 xwOBA, 21.4 strikeout percentage, 17.7 whiff percent
  • Curve - 6.9 percent usage, .168 xBA, .242 xSLG, .182 xwOBA, 45.6 strikeout percentage, 31.7 whiff percent
  • Split-finger Fastball - 3.8 percent usage, .119 xBA, .278 xSLG, .143 xwOBA, 50 strikeout percentage, 39.2 whiff percent

When looking at his peripheral numbers with his pitches, Darvish struggled with home runs with both his fastball and sinker. Even though he rarely used his spilt-finger fastball, it’s a pitch worth working into his repertoire. Perhaps a little more velocity on his four-seam could portend a rebound with the pitch as well. How Darvish throws in the spring along with any reports on how he may deploy his varied arsenal may be important to carrying over the gains he displayed over his last 18 starts. Before delving into his projection, here’s Darvish’s zone profile from 2019:

Over the last three years, Darvish owns an 18-23 record with a 499:136 K:BB, 3.98 ERA, 3.56 xFIP and 1.15 WHIP in 411.1 innings. His strikeout percentage of 29.3 and eight percent walk rate almost align with last season’s results. Key on Darvish’s improved swinging strike percentage and hope he depresses contact again in 2020.

Steamer projects Yu Darvish for a 12-9 record over 185 innings with a 222:62 K:BB, 3.86 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. If Darvish continues to fare well with his cutter, ramps up his curve and split-finger fastball usage, hopefully his three-year ERA can migrate towards his xFIP. Maximizing a pitcher’s arsenal adaptations for predictive uses can be tricky, but Darvish has the talent to carry the gains. Health and his team performance will ultimately determine his final outcome but fantasy owners targeting Darvish as a starting pitcher two or three for fantasy with upside could profit based on his present price point.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

BrooksBaseball.net

Steamerprojections.com