While Mike Moustakas owners will be disappointed to see him leave the friendly hitting environment of Miller Park in Milwaukee, they will be elated to see where he’s heading next:
If Mike Moustakas had played all his games at GABP last season he would have hit 40 homers. Most of any stadium for him. pic.twitter.com/HqtfLKnjdM
— Daren Willman (@darenw) December 3, 2019
Armed with a four-year contract with the Reds, Moustakas could record his first 40 home run season if all goes well in 2020. Moustakas launched 35 in only 143 games last season driving in 87 runs with a .254/.329/.516 slash line. He’s never going to hit for high average, but anything over .250 with his power upside’s tolerable in today’s fantasy climate. In fact, over the last three years, here’s how his numbers stack up:
- 1,817 plate appearances
- 221 runs, 101 home runs, 267 RBI, seven stolen bases
- .259/.319/.498
- 7.5 walk percentage, 16.2 strikeout percentage
- .239 isolated power
- 19.4 line-drive percentage, 45.8 fly ball rate, 16.2 home run per fly ball percent
- 38.1 hard-hit percentage
Pretty, pretty good. Taking his last three years into account, here’s Moustakas’ spray chart with his new home of Great American Ball Park as the backdrop:
Not only will the short porch in right field benefit Moustakas, some of his past fly balls to the opposite field could also carry out. Add in second base eligibility and suddenly Moustakas owns more fantasy appeal without an increase in his draft day cost so far. Owners who target speed early can round out their profile taking Moustakas at second base without sacrificing average.
Shifting to Statcast data, Moustakas recorded 427 batted ball events with 44 barrels and a 10.3 barrel percentage. His expected numbers align with his seasonal ones with a .263 expected batting average, .505 expected slugging and .349 expected weighted on-base average. He also notched a 40.7 hard hit percentage on this site. Noting the tweet above suggesting his new home in Cincinnati could even suit his swing better than Miller Park should enhance Moustakas’ fantasy stock.
This will be especially true for teams loading up on steals early then needing to add power at all positions. Moustakas will be eligible at second base (47 games played) and at third base (105 games) in all drafts. Another sweetener. Before delving into this projection, here’s his zone profile courtesy of Statcast:
Noting his three year numbers above, Mike Moustakas projects for 146 games, 566 at-bats, 85 runs, 36 home runs, 96 RBI, three stolen bases and a .256/.323 slash line. Yet, he’s still available after pick 100 in most drafts. Every year players get overlooked and it seems like the fantasy community takes Moustakas for granted. Savvy owners will target Moustakas a round early to bank the stable skill set along with counting statistics he will provide. There’s no major upside here, but given health, Moustakas could generate his first 40 home run season at a discount. Invest with confidence.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
Steamerprojections.com