It does not take rocket science to understand a hitter such as Aaron Judge hits a baseball with great ferocity. But, as analytics continue to evolve, terms such as exit velocity continue to force their way into data banks and in mainstream media. If one does not understand exit velocity, here’s a primer. 

Starting with a definition, according to Statcast, exit velocity measures the speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact. It’s tracked for all batted ball events (BBE) including outs, hits and errors. 

For hitters, a high exit velocity, ideally at 95 MPH or higher, tends to yield positive results. Of course, former players can attest some of their best batted balls do not translate to hits when their an “at ‘em” ball, but the higher the exit velocity, the better chance for a positive result. Especially when elevated at the right launch angles. 

Not only does exit velocity identify players with the ability to make hard contact, it can be used to discern if a player’s due for positive migration to the mean when a player does not achieve a slugging percentage in direct correlation with their expected numbers. Later, some hitters who underachieved in terms of their slugging rates last year, along with being able to produce higher exit velocities, could be targets due to a reduced price point in drafts and auctions. 

Exit velocity can help highlight players of interest, but it can also be used as a part of a process which includes contact, on-base ability and other factors, with each one playing a part in the overall evaluation before buying into a player. In order to illustrate this, a look at the leaders from the last three seasons with notes of interest will be explored. There will be names among the leaders which give us pause, and some players provided a glimpse of upside which went overlooked.

Here’s the top-15 average exit velocities from 2019 then the top-15 average exit velocities on fly balls and line drives only, since it’s tough to hit ground balls over the fence. Both numbers reflect average in MPH: 

It’s great to see names appearing on both lists which means not only do they generate a high exit velocity, it’s replicated when they elevate their batted ball events. This underscores a breakout. Christian Yelich just missed making both lists but ranked in the top 20 in average exit velocity in line drives and fly balls with a 96.6 MPH average. It’s sort of shocking to see the major league leader in home runs not on either list above though. 

In the next chart, it will list the top-15 in hard hit percentage which represents the percent of batted balls with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or better among each hitters total batted ball events. Plus, with an eye on the future, the top-15 expected slugging percentages from last season: 

After taking all of these lists in, what does it mean? Well, it establishes from interesting names to target after Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton fly off the board in the second and fourth round, respectively. Power could regress a bit in 2020, however, without being privy to what type of baseball the major leagues will use, knowing hitters with high average exit velocities throughout a draft will layer a team with power. To reach the 80th percentile in 12-team NFBC drafts needed 377 home runs last year, which is an eye popping amount. Even if dialing back, think about targeting 350 home runs when building a roster. Here’s the players with the most appearances in the charts above: 

  • Aaron Judge , New York Yankees (four out of four categories)- Judge sits in the top two in average exit velocity, average fly ball and line drive exit velocity along with hard hit percentage. His expected slugging ranks ninth, so it’s nitpicking. Only thing going against Judge, his checkered past regarding injuries and entering camp with shoulder issues. He could hit 40 home runs in 150 games or miss 40 games, feeling lucky? 
  • Nelson Cruz , Minnesota Twins (four out of four categories) - Aging like fine wine, Nelson Cruz surged to 41 home runs last year in only 120 games. Cruz led the majors in barrels per plate appearance (12.5 percent) and one of three to hit at least 40 home runs in his Age-39 season joining Hank Aaron (1973) along with Barry Bonds (2003). 
  • Jorge Soler , Kansas City Royals (four out of four categories) - Many overlook Soler led the American League with 48 home runs. Yes, he comes with a history riddled with injuries, but should Soler last up to five rounds later than Judge in most drafts? 
  • Yordan Alvarez , Houston Astros (three out of four categories) - Talented rookie just raked upon his promotion to the majors. Launched 27 home runs in only 87 games last year with a .313 average. He’s been limited taking repetitions in the outfield in camp with a balky knee, but people want Alvarez hitting, not playing outfield. 
  • Matt Chapman , Oakland Athletics (three out of four categories) - Another underrated power source, Chapman hit 36 home runs with 91 RBI last year. He comes with a bit more risk in terms of batting average which gets baked into his price, but still a strong target with a chance to replicate last year’s production. 
  • Matt Olson , Oakland Athletics (three out of four categories) - Despite missing 34 contests, Olson cranked out 36 home runs with 91 RBI in only 127 games. Olson led all American League first basemen in home runs and the A’s went 82-44 (.651 winning percentage) with him in the lineup. Pretty, pretty good. 
  • Franmil Reyes , Cleveland Indians (three out of four categories) - Reyes assimilated well to Cleveland after his trade from San Diego. He hit a combined .249 with 37 home runs and 81 RBI. However, his last 31 games yields a .287 average with eight doubles, eight home runs, 28 RBI and 21 runs in 108 at-bats. For 2020 at least, Reyes will maintain outfield eligibility and if the baseball gets changed, owns enough power to be worth the investment. By the way, Reyes owned 99th percentile in exit velocity, 98th percentile in hard hit percentage and 89th percentile in expected slugging rate. 
  • Miguel Sanó , Minnesota Twins (three out of four categories) - Another bargain due to injuries but teeming with upside. Last year, Sano made his first appearance on May 16th, from this point until the end of the season he ranked tied for fourth in home runs (34), 11th in RBI (79), 15th in on-base plus slugging percentage (.923) and fourth in isolated power (.329) in the American League. In the second half, Sano averaged a home run every 11.05 at-bats. 
  • Kyle Schwarber , Chicago Cubs (three out of four categories) - Schwarber logged 154 games last year hitting 38 home runs, sixth in the National League.  He had a torrid second half in which he hit 20 over his last 225 at-bats with a .280/.366/.631 slash line and over his last 52 games hit a robust .308/.395/.657. He’s sitting around in the 12th round on average in most NFBC 12-team drafts. 
  • Christian Yelich , Milwaukee Brewers (three out of four categories) - For the Yelich cannot repeat crowd, he followed up his 2018 breakout with 44 home runs and 97 RBI in only 130 contests. He slashed .329/.429.671 and could be the top pick in fantasy this year due to his batting average insulation along with counting category upside. 

While some names above could be obvious, some intriguing candidates for power upside present themselves. From the bargain bin, here’s five names to keep stashed away as bounce back or rebound targets in the end game of drafts: 

  • C.J. Cron , Detroit Tigers - His expected slugging percentage of .550 sits 81 points above his actual meaning better days could lie ahead. Cron recorded a 96.1 MPH average exit velocity on his fly balls and line drives last year with a 44.6 hard hit percentage. As a sweetener, if he migrates towards his 43.5 pull percentage from 2017, Cron could overcome his new home pulling home runs down a more favorable left-field line. 
  • Marcell Ozuna , Atlanta Braves - While the discount ended when Ozuna signed to hit cleanup in Atlanta, he’s in line for positive migration to the mean with a .472 slugging percentage last year but a .548 expected rate. In a better lineup and ballpark for his swing, 30-plus home runs with a better average could ensue. 
  • Dansby Swanson , Atlanta Braves - Before his heel injury on July 23rd, Swanson played 98 games with 431 plate appearances, 64 runs, 21 doubles, 17 home runs, 57 RBI, seven stolen bases and a .265/.330/.368 slash. After his injury, Swanson appeared in 27 games accruing 114 plate appearances with 13 runs, five doubles, no home runs, eight RBI and a woeful .194/.307/.245 line. Good news, Swanson raised his barrel percentage by six points, upped his average exit velocity by three MPH (89.8 in 2019) and recorded a 14.2 degree average launch angle. Better news, he could see a bump in slugging percentage from his actual .422 to his expected .480 with a chance to hit fifth this year. 
  • Danny Jansen , Toronto Blue Jays - Cratered last year but his expected slugging sits 58 points over his actual from last year. He also produced a 27.5 fly ball percent and 27.1 line drive rate during his first full season in the majors. Better days lie ahead. 
  • Domingo Santana , Cleveland Indians - Another fantasy free space, Santana generated a .286/.354/.496 slash line prior to his elbow injury in early July. His first half expected weighted on-base on contact of .513 ranked eighth in baseball. 

Key on exit velocity when assessing power or quality of contact by a player. It’s a part of the process when evaluating talent or finding underrated sources of power in the year ahead. Do not get lost in the sauce with all the numbers, use analytics as a guide to production. It’s easier than the old school makes it seem. For our last exercise, a fun one. Here’s a list of the players to record at least five or more batted ball events of 115 MPH or higher last year with an eye on more sleeper, he’s a future star if he adds to his launch angle: 

What does this look like with the right launch angle? 

 

 

If this young stud figures it out, 30 home runs could ensue this year: 

 

 

Here’s to another successful season hunting home run breakouts via exit velocity. Any questions or comments, hit me up in the chat room or on Twitter (@gjewett9).

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Statistical Credits: 

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

MLB.com - Game Notes