Although Marcus Semien truly broke out with 27 home runs in 2016, it looked like an outlier until this season. Semien launched his 31st home run on Monday and set a team record with 29 of them occurring while hitting lead-off breaking a mark set by Rickey Henderson in 1990. However, it’s not the only statistic making waves for Semien, suddenly a most valuable player candidate. He’s only the third player in major league history with at least 116 runs, 173 hits, 38 doubles, seven triples, 30 home runs, 85 RBI, 78 walks and 10 stolen bases in a season joining Babe Ruth (1921, 1923) and Lou Gehrig (1927, 1930). 

Semien has appeared in each of Oakland’s 151 games this season scoring 117 runs with 31 home runs, 87 RBI, 10 steals and a .284/.365/.519 slash line. If Semien can score seven more runs, he will set another franchise record presently held by Reggie Jackson (123 in 1969). Among his peers this year, Semien’s one of 11 players with at least 30 home runs with at least 10 stolen bases. He’s also one of five players with double digits in home runs and steals in each of the last five seasons. 

Yet, Semien remains outside the trust tree in fantasy. Within his numbers this year, it’s the improved plate metrics which stand out. When Semien transitioned to shortstop, he focused so much on his defense with Ron Washington, it seemed to take away from his upside at the plate. Think of how catchers take longer to breakout due to learning their craft and a pitching staff sacrificing at-bats in the process. This applies to Semien but this year he leads the majors in assists at his position allowing him to unlock his potential at the plate. 

Crazy? Perhaps. However, Semien’s made the following improvements in relation to his discipline during his at-bats: 

  • Contact percentage: 76.9 percent in 2017, 81.1 percent in 2018, 83 percent this year.

  • Swinging strike percentage: 10.3 percent in 2017, 8.3 percent in 2018, 7.2 percent this year. 

  • Walk percentage: 9.8 percent in 2017, 8.7 percent in 2018, 11 percent this year

  • Z-Contact (contact in the strike zone) percentage: 85.3 percent in 2017, 88.3 percent in 2018, 90.3 percent this year.

  • O-Swing (swings at pitches outside the strike zone) percentage: 26 percent in 2017, 26.2 in 2018, 23.4 percent this year. 

In short, Semien’s making more contact in the strike zone, chasing fewer pitches outside of it while taking more walks and striking out less. Thus culminating in this year’s step forward in production. Late age breakouts usually happen with players like Whit Merrifield stuck in the minors who finally get a chance. As for Semien, his two years gains in discipline could be a perfect storm, or the next step in a four year window with a very good chance to repeat. 

Perusing his expected statistics on Statcast, Semien owns a .262 expected average, .455 expected slugging percentage and .347 expected weighted on-base average. He’s recorded 43 barrels in 551 batted ball events with a 37 percent hard hit rate. Fangraphs registers Semien’s hard hit percentage at 41.9 percent but it’s splitting hairs. Here’s a look at his zone profile courtesy of Statcast and focus on his numbers within the strike zone: 

Due to perception and the depth at shortstop, Marcus Semien could remain a bargain in fantasy drafts in 2020 as evidenced by his numbers this year compared to the Yankees greats from the past. Securing runs with power and pocket stolen bases makes Semien a worthy pick if passing on Francisco Lindor or Xander Bogaerts in the early rounds for different needs in a draft. Or, taking Semien as a middle infielder in 12 or 15 league formats provides a team with solid counting statistics without sacrificing batting average. It remains to be seen if Semien will hit above .280 going forward, but he should remain in the .265-to-.275 range. Especially if the improvements in discipline carry over. 

No longer a fringe fantasy player, it’s time to reassess how the fantasy community views Marcus Semien . Heed the breakout. 

 

 

 

Statistical Credits: 

BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
MLB.com - Game Notes

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