Not all breakouts happen in the same manner. For instance, Sandy Alcantara owns a 5-12 record this year with a 4.04 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. While the numbers do not jump off the page, considering the environment in 2019 along with Alcantara’s rookie status, they’re solid. He’s recorded an 18 percent strikeout rate with a 10.7 walk percentage. Alcantara’s improved upon his O-Swing percentage (swings and misses outside the strike zone) while keeping his swinging strike rate and contact yielded in line with his numbers from last season. 

 

What gets one’s attention, Alcantara fired his second complete game shutout on September 8th giving up four hits and two walks with eight strikeouts on 102 pitches. Along with Alcantara, only Lucas Giolito and Shane Bieber own two complete-game shutouts in 2019. While perusing Alcantara’s last six starts spanning his last 30 days statistics, he’s only won one decision with a 2.72 ERA, 38:15 K:BB and 0.91 WHIP his last 43.2 innings. 

Within this sample, Alcantara’s produced a 49.6 ground ball percentage and limited opponents to a 31.9 hard-hit rate allowed. His home run per fly ball percentage sits among the league leaders over his last six starts at 7.7 percent with increased infield fly balls. If Alcantara’s going to succeed, he will need to improve his command and when he’s hit in the strike zone, defray damage by keeping the ball on the ground or yield soft contact. 

Part of the fuel for his recent success, throwing more sinkers. This can be a cautionary tale for fantasy owners, especially those who invested in Chris Archer this year. However, Alcantara’s upped his sinker usage his last 43.2 innings with success. Here’s a look by month this year thanks to Statcast: 

It’s worth noting, Alcantara does not use his secondary offerings as much as his sinker or four-seam fastball. Perhaps he lacks faith in the pitches, but they provide some hope for the future. Overall, Alcantara’s expected statistics reflect a .237 expected average and .397 expected slugging percentage. These hover around the league averages and sit slightly below. In September, a limited sample, Alcantara’s thrown 42 sliders generating a strikeout percentage of 25 and a .199 expected batting average. He’s only tossed 18 changeups but with a .072 expected average and robust 36.4 whiff percentage. 

Before delving into possible comparisons, here’s Alcantara’s arsenal in a plot chart:

During his shutout versus Kansas City, Alcantara’s pitches in 3-D look as such: 

He does change eye levels with the sinker and his four-seam fastball. But, if Alcantara’s going to truly breakout in 2020, a tweak could be necessary. Before delving into possibilities, consider Brandon Woodruff, Luis Castillo and German Marquez appear as comparisons to Alcantara due to arsenal along with velocity similarities. Alcantara’s changeup would need to make a quantum leap to join any conversation with Castillo, but improvement of his feel and more swinging strikes provide intrigue. It felt like Woodruff would never put it together prior to his breakout earlier in the season. 

Knowing Alcantara’s on the Marlins, his value in drafts could be depressed due to low win totals going forward. However, savvy fantasy owners will key on his off-season regiment along with news in spring of him working on a new pitch or using his slider or change-up more in spring training games. Scouts recognize Alcantara owns the arm and eventual stuff to make the jump, it’s up to Alcantara to carry over his last 30 day sample to a full season. Sprinkle in better command of his pitches, working up in the zone to unlock his sinker with an increase in his slider and changeup usage for a season long breakout. 

There’s no guarantee Sandy Alcantara will be able to complete this breakout, but he’s laying the seeds within his last six starts. Heed how he finishes the season and keep him in mind when drafts hit the mid-to-late teens in mixed-league drafts. There’s a solid floor here, with room for growth. 

Statistical Credits: 

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

MLB.com