When Emilio Pagán landed in Tampa Bay via trade last winter, it did not create much of a ripple in the fantasy community. However, due to volatility in the Rays bullpen, Pagan’s risen to the top of the food chain in regards to saves. He’s converted 10 of his last 11 save chances dating back to July 24th. Pagan struggled while gaining his footing in the role blowing seven saves in 13 opportunities prior to July 21st, but owns a 2.81 ERA with 23 strikeouts against zero walks and a 0.75 WHIP in 16 innings since July 30th. 

On the season, Pagan owns a 2.30 ERA, 3.09 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP and 31.3 strikeouts minus walks percentage through 58.2 innings of work. Pagan’s also recorded career bests in swinging strike percentage (16.8), O-swing (swings and misses outside the strike zone) percentage and contact rate (68.5 percent). One bugaboo, Pagan can be prone to home runs. He’s yielded 10 over his last 35 outings and tied for the most allowed all year by relievers (23) with Yusmeiro Petit and Raisel Iglesias . 

However, Pagan remains relevant as the “closer” in Tampa along with his ability to mitigate damage attacking the strike zone along with working outside of it for strikeouts. According to Statcast, Pagan’s only given up eight barrels all year of his 127 batted ball events and ranks among the leaders in baseball in terms of expected outcomes. Pagan owns a .165 expected batting average against, a .282 expected slugging percentage and minuscule .218 expected weighted on-base average. His 37.2 strikeout percentage places him in the top two percent in the majors.

Using primarily his four-seam fastball and a slider, Pagan moves his pitches up and down versus hitters as seen in his pitch plot courtesy of Statcast:

Pagan’s fastball comes with an expected average of .121 while yielding a 46.2 strikeout percentage versus a 4.7 walk percent. His slider sits slightly below with a 28.7 strikeout percentage and .205 expected batting average. 

Bearing this in mind, Pagan continues to mitigate damage as evidenced in his rolling expected weighted on-base average among his peers:

Plus, there’s room for growth if Pagan learns to generate more ground balls in the future or if he works above the strike zone more. Perusing his zone profiles, Pagan could mine more strikeouts or induce more pop-ups doing so: 

With the season winding down and his team firmly in the playoff picture, Emilio Pagán will be a factor. Fantasy owners will focus on his ability to limit baserunners and not give up go ahead home runs over his team’s last 23 contests. It could pave the way for him to enter 2020 in the same role.