Following the path of a fellow flawed yet talented infielder, Fernando Tatis Jr. could be taking the Javier Báez road to fantasy stardom. Through 71 games this season, Tatis Jr. has scored 53 runs with 18 home runs, 44 RBI and 14 stolen bases. His robust .331/.390/.601 slash line hints at regression, but to this point, Tatis Jr. has fired on all cylinders. 

Yes, his .453 batting average on balls in play will not hold and his discipline metrics suggest there will be struggles but Tatis Jr. owns the ability to score runs, drive them in and hit for power while also stealing bases. Through his first 310 plate appearances, Tatis Jr. possesses a 14.9 swinging strike percentage, 68.1 contact rate and 31.3 O-Swing percent (swings at pitches outside the strike zone). He’s also tied for first in multi-hit games among rookies with Pete Alonso racking up 28 this year. However, Tatis Jr.’s appeared in 33 fewer contests. 

Tatis Jr. has surged in July hitting .320/.362.577 with 13 runs, seven home runs, 16 RBI and two stolen bases in 97 at-bats. Among all hitters with at least 300 plate appearances this year, he ranks fourth in average, seventh in slugging percentage and tied for 16th in on-base percentage. Since his return from injury on June sixth, Tatis ranks as follows in the National League:

  • Second in hits with 62

  • Third in runs (39), average (.348) and slugging percentage (.629)

  • Tied for fourth in on-base percentage (.407)

In this 44-game sample, Tatis Jr. owns a .281 isolated power with 12 home runs and eight stolen bases. This would be a season for some major league players. 

For the avalanche of production to this point, Statcast expected statistics temper expectations going forward. Tatis Jr.’s generated 189 batted ball events with 24 barrels and a 89.2 MPH average exit velocity. This results in a .247 expected average, .452 expected slugging and an expected weighted on-base average 79 points his actual number. Trying to marry the rookie’s talent versus his future outcomes will not only decide his end of season totals, but how to value Tatis Jr. in drafts next season. 

Players with speed can maintain high BABIPs and Tatis Jr. ranks in the top five percent in the league in sprint speed with a 29 feet per second mark this year. He also does not rely on pulling the ball for power illustrated in his spray chart so far this year:

 

 

In fact, if Tatis Jr. can follow the path of Baez hitting with power to the opposite field, it could defray the regression crowd. Here’s Tatis Jr.’s slice chart as well courtesy of Statcast:

He already hits up the middle 30 percent of the time with right-center at 15 percent. As pitchers work him away going forward, this number could increase. With a current pace of 109 games, 81 runs, 28 home runs, 67 RBI and 21 stolen bases, Tatis Jr. will be a hot topic this off-season. Armed with a strikeout percentage just below 30 percent, can he be a fantasy asset if his average migrates towards his expected number? 

Viewing his rest-of-the-season projections from three sites, all agree on some struggles once his hot streak subsides:

  • ZiPS ROS: 38 games, 150 at-bats, 23 runs, seven home runs, 21 RBI, six stolen bases; .256/.323/.468

  • Steamer ROS: 50 games, 196 at-bats, 30 runs, nine home runs, 25 RBI, eight stolen bases; .257/.323/.461

  • THE BAT ROS: 51 games, 196 at-bats, 32 runs, 10 home runs, 28 RBI, six stolen bases; .263/.329/.488

Despite THE BAT taking the most aggressive stance, Tatis Jr. could fall short of his current paces. Much will depend on how he mitigates his inflated BABIP in regards to production in the last two months. Here are his zone profiles from Statcast with expected numbers in the corresponding charts:

 

Javier Báez continues to prove a player can produce in fantasy despite spotty plate discipline. It results in streaky outputs, but when he’s hot he scorches the ball. This aligns with Fernando Tatis Jr. so far. Note how well he’s done to this point and pay close attention to his last two months. Tatis Jr. could rise as high as a second-round pick depending on how he finishes. It sets up as a fine ride regardless for his owners who took the chance on adding him this preseason. Talent rises, how he adjusts will set his ceiling. 

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

MLB.com - Game Notes

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski

Steamerprojections.com

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty