Switching positions can be a roadblock or pave the way to a player’s success. In the case of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. , it seems to be fueling his breakout. After decent debut last year, Gurriel Jr. seemed primed to either succeed this year or suffer the sophomore slump. Remarkably, he’s been able to accomplish both ends of the spectrum with the calendar just turning to July. For starters, Gurriel Jr. slumped hitting .175 at the time of his demotion in April. Not only lost at the plate, it seemed Gurriel Jr. carried his fielding woes up to bat with him. 

Things changed when he reappeared with Toronto on May 24th. He spent time in the outfield in the minors and since his promotion, leads the major leagues with six throwing assists. For fantasy owners, his last 35 games has yielded 31 runs, nine doubles, a triple, 14 home runs, 26 RBI, a stolen base and a robust .360/.401/.750 slash line in 136 at-bats. He’s already set a career high in home runs prior to the All-Star break. 

Within this sample, Gurriel Jr.’s produced a .390 isolated power, a .466 weighted on-base average, and he has walked in 6.1 percent of his plate appearances with a 24.5 strikeout rate. His 32.6 home run per fly ball percentage will migrate to the mean but he also owns a 48.5 hard hit rate. Fantasy owners will do their best to discern this hot streak to forecasting how Gurriel Jr. will finish the season. 

It’s also worth noting, since May 24th, Gurriel Jr. ranks tied for 13th in the majors with 14 barrels and surpassed last year’s total already in fewer batted ball events. Plus: 

Although Mark Bowman used this tweet to highlight how well Ronald Acuna’s doing to his fanbase as a Braves beat writer, check out where Gurriel Jr. ranks among his peers. In American League ranks for June, Gurriel Jr. rated as follows:

  • Second in total bases (71)

  • Second in home runs (10)

  • Third in slugging (.683)

  • Tied for fourth in hits (35)

  • Sixth in on-base plus slugging percentage (1.063)

  • 10th in average (.337)

Pretty impressive to say the least. Since May 24th, only D.J. LeMahieu and Whit Merrifield have recorded more hits in the American League. 

Before delving into how Gurriel Jr. changed his fantasy stock, here’s a look at his numbers from last year’s debut through his demotion compared to his numbers since: 

It’s like two different players when scanning the numbers. Over his last 35 games, Gurriel Jr.’s walking slightly more but remained aggressive at the plate. This year, he’s generating more fly balls (42.6 percent) than he did last season (32 percent) but carried over his propensity to produce a high exit velocity. In fact, his average exit velocity sits just one MPH below last year’s with much different results. 

In terms of discipline, Gurriel Jr.’s swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone but with a lower contact rate and increased his swinging strike percentage for a statistical oddity. Even though there’s going to be migration to the mean once this hot streak expires, 35 games suggest it’s a foundation he can build upon. 

First, here’s his spray heatmap courtesy of Statcast his last 35 contests:

One can see he’s pulling the ball with great success and frequency which does not insure future success as Matt Carpenter can attest to. So, looking at his actual spray chart from this sample could yield a clearer look: 

It’s encouraging to see Gurriel Jr.’s not limited to hitting for power to his pull side and this chart only reflects his hard hit data. Since launch angle will factor in this equation, here’s how it appears the last 35 games: 

Gurriel Jr.’s making quality contact and benefiting from it. However, his expected numbers predict some pull back on his current pace. Sustaining his numbers from the last 35 games would be tough to do for any major league player not named Mike Trout or Christian Yelich , but Gurriel Jr.’s not going to collapse. His .289 expected batting average, .583 expected slugging and .388 expected weighted on-base average do not suggest Gurriel Jr. will bottom out. In fact, they somewhat align with what his final numbers, added to his season so far could finish at. 

Here’s Gurriel Jr.’s rest-of-the-season projections from three different systems:

Taking the most aggressive of the group, THE BAT’s numbers and adding them to his season so far, including the slow start, Gurriel Jr. would finish with the following line: 114 games, 436 at-bats, 26 home runs, 70 RBI, four stolen bases and a .286/.331/.539 slash. Anyone speculating on Gurriel Jr. would take this compared to where he went in drafts and likely ended up on the waiver wire in many leagues after his demotion. 

What fantasy owners will be watching for with him going forward will be the power and ability to produce hard hits without cratering in average once the league adjusts. If he can keep his on-base percentage over 32 percent the rest of the season, it would make investing next year more alluring. Perhaps moving to left field removed the pressure associated with his faulty infield defense allowing Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to hit his stride at the plate. He displayed power during his rookie season and seems on the precipice of continuing his breakout entering his power peak years. It could be the perfect storm if he can maintain the gains. 

 

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

MLB.com - Game Notes

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski

Steamerprojections.com

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty