It catches one’s attention when a player gets himself in the conversation with Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich in 2019. Among all players with at least 130 plate appearances, only three own an average of at least .340 while getting on base at least 38-percent of the time and a slugging percentage of .660 or higher, the two mentioned above and Scott Kingery . Playing the part of the post-hype poster boy, Kingery’s slashing .344/.385/.664 through his first 39 games, a limited sample, joining Yelich (.343/.444/.746) and Bellinger (.355/.451/.702) in this statistical nugget.

Knowing Yelich and Bellinger come with a larger sample of production, how will Kingery do going forward? There’s no way he can maintain his present .420 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) or his .432 weighted on base-average. His underlying statistics predict some migration to the mean, but not at the rate many would believe. Using his expected statistics from Statcast, Kingery’s expected average of...