It catches one’s attention when a player gets himself in the conversation with Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich in 2019. Among all players with at least 130 plate appearances, only three own an average of at least .340 while getting on base at least 38-percent of the time and a slugging percentage of .660 or higher, the two mentioned above and Scott Kingery . Playing the part of the post-hype poster boy, Kingery’s slashing .344/.385/.664 through his first 39 games, a limited sample, joining Yelich (.343/.444/.746) and Bellinger (.355/.451/.702) in this statistical nugget.

Knowing Yelich and Bellinger come with a larger sample of production, how will Kingery do going forward? There’s no way he can maintain his present .420 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) or his .432 weighted on base-average. His underlying statistics predict some migration to the mean, but not at the rate many would believe. Using his expected statistics from Statcast, Kingery’s expected average of .299 and expected slugging of .539 suggest he will slow down but not a major cost to Kingery’s fantasy owners.

Starting with his quality of contact, Kingery’s average exit velocity of 90.5 MPH this year sits five MPH above his average from last season. This gets reinforced with his 49.4 hard hit percentage on Fangraphs, up almost 23 percentage points compared to his debut in 2018. Of more interest, Kingery’s improved his discipline metrics raising his Z-Contact (in the strike zone) above 81-percent and his Z-Swing percentage by 12 percentage points. He’s traded swings and contact in the zone for swings at pitches outside the strike zone as evidenced by Kingery’s O-Swing dropping from 40.4-percent in 2018 to 32.9-percent this season.

So, Kingery’s swinging at more pitches in the strike zone while chasing less with five miles per hour added to his exit velocity. A recent hot streak during which Kingery’s 11-for-22 with eight extra-base hits (three doubles, a triple and four home runs) adds to his resume with a 1.273 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) in it. He’s also second in the National League in OPS so far in June among players with at least 50 plate appearances trailing some guy named Yelich (1.438 OPS).

But, as one digs into Kingery’s season, he’s also hitting .385 with runners in scoring position while racking up six three-hit games compared to only three all of last season. In leagues with fewer games needed to qualify at a position, Kingery’s started 17 games in center field, eight at third base, three at shortstop and two at second base enhancing his overall value.

Although Kingery’s ramped up his pull percentage above 50 -percent according to Fangraphs, this could be boosting his power a little with many players trading power for quality of contact. But, here’s his spray chart so far courtesy of Statcast:

 

Yes, Kingery’s pulling the ball more, but he’s also hit three home runs to the right side of center field. Plus, his slice chart suggests he uses left-center more than just pulling the ball across his at-bats:

Knowing Kingery will not maintain the torrid pace he’s presently on, how much pullback will there be in his production? Perusing his rest-of-the-season projections, which rely on past performance, things could get bumpy:

  • Kingery Steamer ROS Projections: 305 at-bats, 34 runs, 10 home runs, 39 RBI, seven stolen bases; .249/.296/.409

  • Kingery THE BAT ROS Projections: 334 at-bats, 45 runs, 13 home runs, 43 RBI, seven stolen bases; .249/.297/.427

 

These suggest a major drop in average going forward. But, owners of Kingery would sign on for a season of 21 home runs and nine steals using his present numbers with THE BAT’s counting statistics added together. They also do not account for the adjustments made so far by Kingery at the plate regardless of the inflated BABIP to this point.

But, if Kingery hits say, .275 the rest of the way (92 hits in 334 at-bats), this would put his final average at .293, much more proximal to his present .299 expected average. Adding in a chance at 20 plus home runs and a potential for 7-to-10 stolen bases, Kingery’s stock continues to rise. Use his statistics to this point as a hot streak and how he finishes the year to value him going forward. However, given the discipline metrics along with the improved contact, Kingery seems poised to deliver a hefty return on investment if plucked off the waivers prior to this surge.

 

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

MLB.com - Game Notes

Fangraphs.com