With many viable candidates for the Behind the Breakout series available of late, Ketel Marte homering for the third straight game clinched his spot. Over his last 18 games, Marte’s scored 18 runs with three doubles, a triple, eight home runs, 16 RBI and a robust .341/.368/.695 slash line. Also in this sample, his isolated power of .354, .426 weighted on-base plus slugging and hard hit rate over 50 percent stand out.
When perusing his projected numbers this season, Marte’s currently on pace for 100 runs, 41 home runs, 112 RBI and seven stolen bases. Yes, Ketel Marte. Through 66 games, he’s scored 42 runs with 17 home runs, 47 RBI, three steals and a .280/.330/.539 slash. Marte ranks sixth in baseball with a 90.9 MPH average exit velocity and second in barrels with 26 in 221 batted ball events. He only totaled 22 barrels in 444 such events last season. Plus, he’s hit the longest home run in baseball this year:
Ketel Marte launched the longest HR for the @Dbacks in the Statcast era. It also ties Nomar Mazara for the longest dinger this season! https://t.co/eb1dCxmScu
— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) June 2, 2019
Off to career bests in isolated power (.258) and weighted on-base average (.358), Marte’s effectively traded ground balls for fly balls with no sacrifice to his power while raising his home run per fly ball percentage. This resonates in his rolling chart courtesy of Fangraphs which illustrates his recent surge and Marte’s swap by 10 percent of ground balls for fly balls:
Note the confluence of peaks in hard hit percentage, fly balls and home runs per fly balls. Beneath this, Marte’s traded a bit of discipline but not sold out. In fact, during the 18 game sample above, he’s produced a 9.2 strikeout percentage. During the season, Marte’s seen his contact rate slightly drop but raised his Z-Contact (in the zone) as a tradeoff. Armed with a 92.1 Z-Contact percentage and gains in hard hit rate, Marte’s surged through 66 games.
Knowing Marte’s hitting for more power, and more than doubling his barrel so far compared to last year, it’s apparent he’s comfortable entering his power peak years. Marte leads the majors with nine home runs versus left-handed pitchers and improved upon his splits as a switch hitter:
Marte vs. LHP: 97 at-bats, 18 runs, nine home runs, 21 RBI, .320/.353/.660, .340 isolated power, .410 weighted on-base average
Marte vs. RHP: 174 at-bats, 24 runs, eighth home runs, 26 RBI, .259/.318/.471, .213 isolated power, .331 weighted on-base average
When looking at Marte’s expected statistics on Statcast, his improvement by pitch grouping also reinforces his strong start to 2019:
Against his overall numbers from this year, Marte also passes the eye test with a .284 expected average, .507 expected slugging and .356 expected weighted on-base average. He’s increased his launch angle to 11.4 degrees this season compared to only 5.7 degrees in 2018 which reinforces the trading of ground ball events for ones in the air. Plus, note his expected numbers also from Statcast in terms of contact and power:
Knowing Marte should fall short of his projected outcome listed above based on his current pace, how much will he regress and how will he finish 2019? For starters, here’s his rest-of-the-season projections from two different systems:
Marte ROS ZiPS projection: 325 at-bats, 46 runs, 10 home runs, 41 RBI, five stolen bases; .278/.335/.458
Marte ROS THE BAT projection: 342 at-bats, 46 runs, 12 home runs, 44 RBI, four stolen bases; .268/.328/.447
Even with some pullback on his current production, Marte will outproduce his preseason projected finish. With the ZiPS numbers, Marte would finish with 27 home runs, 88 RBI and eight stolen bases. According to THE BAT, he could end up with 29 home runs, 91 RBI and seven steals. Knowing he will probably finish with an average between .270-to-.280, these numbers represent a new level for Marte. Especially if he makes a run at 30 home runs this year.
Not all breakouts look the same, but Marte’s improved launch angle, hard hit rate, more fly balls and fewer ground outs fuel his in season breakout. Whether or not he reaches the 30 home plateau does not really affect his overall valuation. However, getting Marte’s breakout at a discount this year will probably not happen in 2020 drafts. Enjoy the ride.
Statistical Credits:
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty