Hidden within the White Sox rebuild, Lucas Giolito continues to surge in 2019. At the end of last season, he revamped his delivery in an effort to cut down on his walk rates and work more efficiently. This, along with revamping his repertoire, fuels his strong start. Giolito’s won eight of his nine decisions over 11 starts with 78 strikeouts against 20 walks in 67.1 innings. He’s won his last six starts with a 1.03 ERA and 48:8 K:BB in them. It’s fueled his 22.2 strikeouts minus walks percentage this season and in an environment in which hard hit percentages escalate, Giolito’s slightly reduced hard hit allowed.

His emergence follows the path of pitchers before Giolito. In fact, he’s taking a page from the Astros playbook deploying more elevated fastballs and using his best pitch more often. As evidence, Giolito’s increased his swinging strike percentage to 13.3 percent, up five versus last year and reduced contact by over eight percent. More impressive, Giolito’s increased his swings and misses in the zone (Z-Swing) along with out of it (O-Swing). A rare double feat. For an illustration, here’s his arsenal in a pitch plot courtesy of Baseball Savant:

When viewing his four-seam map, note the concentration of fastballs in the zone along with the elevation of them. Mixing in more change-ups and sprinkling in sliders, Giolito’s on the path to sustained success. One of the biggest gains, his improvement versus left-handed hitters. Last year, they hit .271 versus Giolito but this year, he’s cut their average to .174 as June ensues. Here’s his swings and misses in 2018 with all of his pitches:

Now, note how he’s not only generating more swings and misses, but where:

Working at the top of and above the strike zone yields more swinging strikes at the bottom of it as well. Giolito’s not only throwing with more velocity, he’s attacking hitters across two levels of the strike zone.

He’s also tweaked his arsenal cutting out the sinker from last season and focusing on more four-seam fastballs while ramping up his change-up usage by almost nine percent. So far, so good:

Fantasy owners will be left trying to discern how good Lucas Giolito will be going forward. His previous data will confound projection systems, but here’s two rest-of-the-season ones for Giolito:

  • ZiPS ROS: Six wins, eight losses, 19 games started, 103 innings, 88 strikeouts, 46 walks, 4.55 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

  • THE BAT ROS: Six wins, seven losses, 19 games started, 108 innings, 107 strikeouts, 49 walks, 4.71 ERA, 1.42 WHIP

If any owner’s nervous, the projections suggest it’s time to sell high. For the more risk averse, they can key on the mitigation of hard hit rates with more strikeouts and fewer walks. There’s going to be migration of Giolito’s present 2.54 ERA but his xFIP of 3.65 suggests it may not be as severe as the forecasts by ZiPS or THE BAT. HItters will adjust to the arsenal, but, Giolito can use his slider, which produces the most swings and misses of any of the pitches within his arsenal to keep batters off balance. Wins always prove to be tough to predict. If Giolito can win between 12-to-14 games this year with an ERA below four, he will be a terrific value based on investment. How low his ERA sits at the end of the year along with his strikeout total will make him an intriguing target in 2020 drafts. Keep tabs on his development and how Giolito finishes the year, but for now, he looks like the future ace many hoped he could be when rated as a top prospect.

 

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty