In a rare circumstance, this week’s breakout column will focus on an entire team rather than an individual breakdown. Why? Well, for starters, the Twins sit on the precipice of displacing the complacent Cleveland Indians atop the American League Central. Yes, it’s too early to predict, but, Minnesota barring an epic collapse continues to trend towards a push to the postseason. For starters:
With three flatline teams in the division, Minnesota seems well on its way to paying dividends to savvy bettors who took the over on its preseason win total. It’s also worth noting, the Twins will play 63 of its remaining 108 games against its division, almost 60 percent. Here’s a visual on why this could prove to be so advantageous:
So far in May, Minnesota’s won 19 games and one win away from the franchise’s 11th 20 win month in history. They’ve launched 55 home runs this month, matching a team record and now within three of the all-time record of 58 set by the 1987 Orioles. Minnesota’s scored three-plus runs in 21 straight contests dating back to May sixth, plus set a team record with 113 extra-base hits. They bludgeon opponents with 10 or more hits in 26 games already. Their record in these games, 23-3. This team also set a record for the fewest games in team history to move 20 games over five hundred in its first 52 this year.
Signing unwanted free agents like Jonathan Schoop and Martín Pérez , waiting out the market for Marwin Gonzalez plus claiming C.J. Cron off waivers highlight their moves. Anyone could have had them. Aging slugger Nelson Cruz provided the punch they craved on a one-year deal, plus his presence in the clubhouse benefits the youth on the roster. Add in Blake Parker and this band of castoffs could be a juggernaut. Plus, Minnesota could enter the fray in early June with Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel . Imagine their odds if they could land one or both of the remaining free agent chips on the market?
Due to the sheer volume of players surging for the Twins, this piece will hit on highlights of most of the players with a capsule on whether to buy high or perhaps sell even with the schedule perks which lie ahead. Fantasy can be a fickle game, but, the numbers usually tell the story. Going by free agent pickups first, here’s the rundown of the Twins breakout.
35 Games, 19 runs, seven home runs, 22 RBI; .270/.354/.508
Presently on the injured list, Cruz makes for an intriguing buy low if his wrist health improves. Cruz owns a .238 isolated power so far which sits below his average rate the last three years. His hard hit rate mirrors the spike across baseball at 51.7 percent compared to last years 42.3 mark. Add in his expected average (.285) and expected slugging (.569) to the remaining schedule and Cruz could be a force from mid-June forward.
47 Games, 29 runs, 10 home runs, 29 RBI; .266/.321/.514
Frustrating owners last year, Schoop’s back to normal. His .293 average in 2017 seemed too high and his crater to .233 last year seemed too low. However, his line above feels right on the mark. His .249 isolated power would represent a career high as does his present 42.7 hard hit rate. Yes, his aggressive nature and lower contact percentage this year will cause his average to recede a bit more, but he could pop 22-to-25 home runs with a .250-ish average at the conclusion of this year. He’s a hold.
45 Games, 21 runs, five home runs, 17 RBI, one stolen base; .239/.319/.368
While Marwin Gonzalez provides deeper league owners with tremendous roster flexibility due to his multi-positional eligibility, this could be as good as it gets. He’s hitting fewer line drives while producing more ground balls making his hard hit rate less palatable. There’s hope within his expected slugging of .410 sitting 42 points above his actual, but he could lose time with Miguel Sanó back and if Willians Astudillo ever wakes up with the bat.
49 Games, 28 runs, 13 home runs, 34 RBI; .270/.333/.534
Cron’s waiver claim did not move the fantasy needle in spite of his 30 home run season for the Rays. But, Cron’s cut his strikeout percentage by over four percent, raised his isolated power by 24 points and owns a better batting average this year with a lower BABIP. More line drives fuel his gains in average along with improving his discipline metrics and contact rates. In fact, his expected average of .278 and expected slugging of .531 suggest it’s not a fluke. Buy if his owner’s looking to sell high. Fun fact, check out how Mike Scioscia stunted Cron’s growth:
Cron with the Angels: 408 games, 1,366 at-bats, 155 runs, 59 home runs, 213 RBI; .262/.307/.449, home run every 23.15 at-bats
Cron since: 189 games, 679 at-bats, 86 runs, 43 home runs, 108 RBI; .258/.326/.504, home run every 15.79 at-bats
7 Wins, 2 Losses, 11 Games, eight starts, 58 IP, 56:26 K:BB, 2.95 ERA, 4.36 xFIP, 1.33 WHIP
Tweaking his arsenal, Martín Pérez ditched his two-seam fastball for a cutter on advice by the Twins staff. So far, so good. As a starter, Perez owns a 44:17 K:BB with a 2.17 ERA, 4.27 xFIP and 1.15 WHIP. Yes, there will be some regression to the mean but he can offset it with a career best swinging strike percentage (10.9 percent), more swings and misses outside the strike zone plus a reduced contact rate by almost eight percent this year. He’s a hold for now. Not selling nor actively pursuing based on the xFIP.
Eight saves, one loss, 17.1 IP, 14:7 K:BB, 1.04 ERA, 4.42 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP
One of these statistics does not look like the other. See it? Blake Parker ’s done well in a limited role atop the bullpen with the Twins. But, his 10.8 walk percentage fuels his 4.42 xFIP. Not to mention, Parker’s .190 BABIP compared to his career .282 will soon normalize. Like Perez, Parker’s ramped up his swinging strike rate with reduced contact, but if the Twins target Craig Kimbrel , Parker loses his only valuable asset in this bullpen, saves. Sell if possible.
Now it’s time to transition to the Twins who returned from last year with the same evaluations for 2019 going forward.
51 Games, 38 runs, 16 home runs, 45 RBI, two stolen bases; .283/.313/.556
Rosario leads the American League in RBI and ranks second in home runs. His .273 isolated power drives his power and it’s depressing his BABIP (.264). He’s producing fly balls in almost half of his batted ball events and this marks his third straight year of growth in the category. Plus, Rosario’s cut down his swinging strike percentage, increased contact and his expected statistics do not forecast much regression. Buy, buy, buy.
47 Games, 35 runs, 12 home runs, 33 RBI, one stolen base; .281/.351/.546
Riding the wave of a recent hot streak, Max Kepler won American League Player of the Week honors. He’s surging in terms of hard hit percentage while pulling the ball 56 percent of the time. Keeping his contact rates steady, along with slightly increasing his aggressiveness, Kepler seems poised on a breakout. There could be a bit of a backslide in power, but, Kepler could still hit 25 homers this year and keep his average in the .280-range. Yes please.
50 Games, 28 runs, five home runs, 28 RBI, nine stolen bases; .258/.316/.491
Buxton owns nine of the team’s 14 stolen bases but it’s his gains in walk rates while reducing his strikeout percentage which should excite his owners. Plus, Buxton’s buying into the fly ball revolution generating them 57.1 percent of his at-bats so far compared to a 26.7 ground ball rate. Bake in more hard hits, up 4.5 percent and less swings and misses and his breakout could be upon us. Just heed his expected average (.249) and expected slugging (.412) when paying full retail.
51 Games, 33 runs, nine home runs, 26 RBI, one stolen base; .332/.404/.584
As of this writing, Polanco leads the American League in hits (67) ranks second in average and total bases (118). He’s third in triples (5), fourth in slugging, fifth in on-base plus slugging percentage and in on-base percentage. A far cry from being suspended last season. Polanco’s increased his walk percentage, lowered his strikeout rate and off to a career best .252 isolated power. No surprise, his hard hit rate sits at a career high. Like Buxton, Polanco’s surging in fly ball rate, more than 50 percent while cutting his ground ball percentage by over 12 points at no expense to his home run per fly ball percent, up by over four points. There will be some pull back, but Polanco’s .291 expected average and .526 expected slugging suggest it will not be extreme. Buy.
7 Wins, 2 Losses, 11 Starts, 70.1 IP, 64:11 K:BB, 3.20 ERA, 4.19 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP
With so many aces not getting wins, Berrios gains fantasy value due to his environment. Even though he’s getting fewer swings and misses, down 1.2 percentage points, along with yielding more contact, he’s also generating more swinging strikes outside the strike zone. It’s sort of mind blowing. Cutting his walk rate to 3.8 percent will be the key to staying the course. Berrios could even improve in terms of his strikeouts with a slight tweak to avoid contact, but it’s nitpicking. Even if his ERA and xFIP migrate towards each other, a final ERA in the 3.50-to-3.65 range with 15 wins would warrant reaching for him this year.
5 Wins, 2 Losses, 10 Starts, 57.1 IP, 60:14 K:BB, 4.08 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP
No one feels great about getting Kyle Gibson , and he can be frustrating, but he could be emerging. Armed with an improved 19.3 strikeouts minus walks percentage this year and a 13.6 swinging strike percentage (higher than his teammate above), Gibson keeps on improving. It started in the second half of last year and if he pitches to his xFIP, he’s worth an add this year. Pitching gets murky fast.
7 Wins, 2 Losses, 11 Starts, 58.1 IP, 61:20 K:BB, 2.16 ERA, 4.42 xFIP, 0.99 WHIP
Although one can understand the gains this year, maintaining this start all year will be impossible. Digging the 12.1 swinging strike percentage and 17.9 strikeouts minus walk percent but the xFIP more than two runs over his present ERA scares the bejesus out of me. Sell high before migration to the mean comes calling.
Time will tell how all of this shakes out, but as a team, the Twins definitely qualify as a breakout. Savvy signings, roster manipulation and layering prospects to fill-in will serve them well taking over the division from the penny pinching ownership in Cleveland. Use the upcoming schedule and trends for your advantage in fantasy and stay the course.
Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
Baseball-Reference.com
MLB.com - Game Notes