Well, it could be happening. Speculating on how good Joey Gallo might be if he only raised his average to the .230 range could be gaining traction. It’s a small sample, but, through 19 games, Gallo’s slashing a robust .273/.388/.712 with eight home runs in only 80 plate appearances. There’s no doubting his Statcast appeal. Gallo owns a 98 MPH average exit velocity on his 40 batted ball events so far with a 102.8 MPH average fly ball and line drive exit velocity. His 18.2 degree launch angle enables his power sparking a glorious 32.5 barrels per batted ball event percentage.

Gallo generates a hard hit event on Statcast, an exit velocity of 95 MPH-plus, at an alarming 65 percent clip to this point with 26 within his 40 batted ball events. Yes, exit velocity continues to rise across the board this year, but not at Gallo’s rate which resides five MPH above his number from last year. He’s also upped his walk percentage to 16.3 while his strikeout rate receded slightly to 35.9 percent.

More importantly, Gallo’s improving his discipline metrics. Or to him, the last frontier. Using Statcast, Gallo’s reduced his first pitch swing percentage to 30 percent through his first 80 plate appearances compared to 41.4 percent in 2018. He’s also cut his chase rate to 21.4 percent, down almost eight points versus his total from last season.

Shifting to Fangraphs, Gallo’s also made strides in swinging strike percentage down to 16.7 percent as opposed to 18.4 last year. Plus, his O-Swing (swings at pitches outside the strike zone) sits at 26 percent against 32.2 percent in 2018 plus he’s improved his Z-Contact (in the strike zone) by five points.

In an effort to expand the sample size, going back to the start of the second half last year, Gallo’s slashing .248/.353/.624 over his last 250 at-bats, with the start of this season included. He’s scored 51 runs in 74 games with 26 home runs and 63 RBI. Heck, Gallo even hit his first sacrifice fly in Sunday’s win over Houston. Only Greg Maddux and Steve Sax made more plate appearances in their career without a sacrifice fly than Gallo.

As the American League Player of the Week, Gallo surged to a .478 average (11-for-23) with four home runs and 11 RBI in six games. So, what happens next? Well, some regression needs to occur for a career .207 hitter. Remember, the benchmark fantasy owners hoped for of .230 would change Gallo’s value incrementally.

However, when perusing Gallo’s expected statistics on Statcast, some interesting things occur. First, his .273 average falls 43 points below his expected one (.316). Gallo’s expected slugging percentage of .800 actually suggests he’s been unlucky by 88 points in regards to power. Last, Gallo’s weighted on-base average (.448) lags behind his expected weighted on-base average (.501) by 53 points. So, Gallo could be even hotter?

Statcast does reward high exit velocities, especially to one’s pull side of the field. With this in mind, it can be taken with a grain of salt along with hope. Here’s a look at Gallo’s spray chart from the start of the second half of last year through Monday, April 22nd:

In an effort to illustrate the exit velocities, here’s the same chart with them instead of the batted ball result:

Given his propensity to pull the ball, hence hitting over the shift to defeat it, Gallo’s heat map fully reinforces this tendency:

Discerning how the league will adjust to Gallo, along with the pending regression due to career rates, how will they attack him? Gallo’s yet to face many pitches above the strike zone. Of course, laying off of them will only enhance his profile, but, note how he’s performed within his zone profiles so far in 2019:

Last year, Gallo only hit one home run above the strike zone according to Brooks Baseball. As a comparison, here’s Gallo’s same charts from last season:

Again, his expected batting average reflects some of the positive migration to start this year in terms of his production and outcomes. If Gallo can maintain his early discipline metrics over the course of the season, he could hit in the .240 range. No, this should not be considered a joke. Gallo’s teased in terms of improving his contact in the zone along with producing titanic home runs. Carrying over the gains from the second half to the start of this season could be the evolution Gallo owner’s invested in. Heed his slash line over the last 74 games, it could be the template going forward. Will Gallo hit 50 home runs and .270, no. Can he hit 50, with health and a .240 average, suddenly it’s in the realm of outcomes.

Joey Gallo ’s not a breakout candidate due to power. However, there’ potentially a new level to his game if he can increase his average without sacrificing it. His start suggests there’s a chance, here’s to hoping he reaches it.

 

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

BrooksBaseball.net

Sacrifice Fly notes: https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/texas-rangers/rangers/2019/04/22/rangers-outfielder-joey-gallo-named-american-league-player-week