After failing to fulfill fantasy owners hopes in 2018, Yoán Moncada went to work last fall in Arizona along with putting extra time prior to spring training this year. To be fair, Moncada did hit 17 home runs and steal 12 bases last year, but with a .235/.315/.400 slash line. Entering his Age-24 season, if Moncada’s going to improve upon his plate discipline, it needs to be within the next two years.
Starting with his spring numbers, Moncada slashed a robust .358/.469/.642 with four doubles, a triple and three home runs over 53 at-bats. He finished with a 1.25 ground outs to air outs ratio. During spring in 2018, Moncada hit three doubles with three home runs in 59 at-bats, but his ground out to air out ratio of 1.40 capped his power. Moncada also walked eight times versus 19 strikeouts. This year, Moncada walked 11 times against 16 strikeouts. So, Moncada upped his on-base plus slugging percentage by over 275 points while getting more batted balls in the air and walked more in fewer games while striking out less.
Keeping in mind the sample size and the results in spring can be misleading, it’s noteworthy but can Moncada carry over these improvements over a full season? This will decide how his development will trend. Another factor this year, Moncada’s switching to third base and in more than interview shares how comfortable he’s been with the move. Less pressure could translate to a more productive player. However, there’s no way to quantify this.
Through 18 plate appearances to start the season, Moncada’s scored six runs with two doubles, a home run and four RBI. He’s slashing .412/.444/.706 with one walk, three strikeouts and a .294 isolated power. Although Moncada did strikeout in his first at-bat against Mike Clevinger , he did foul off a couple of tough pitches. On the surface, Moncada’s present 5.6 walk percentage and 16.7 strikeout rate do not jump off the page, until comparing them to last year’s numbers. In 2018, Moncada walked in 10.3-percent of his plate appearances while recording a strikeout percentage above 33-percent.
If Moncada can improve his average, and overall fantasy value, he will need to reduce his swinging strikes. Plus, improve upon hitting fastballs. Prior to Monday’s action, here’s the total number of pitches Moncada’s seen, courtesy of Brooks Baseball:
Despite being a switch hitter, pitchers will try to induce swings and misses below the strike zone by Moncada. However, of the 63 pitches seen so far this year, he’s only swung and missed six times.
Unlike the breakout by Javier Báez last year, Moncada owns better discipline metrics. Again, with the small sample size alert, here’s four areas of comparison between last year the start to this one:
Moncada in 2018: 23.2 O-Swing percentage (swings and misses outside the strike zone), 70.3 contact rate, 12.2 swinging strike percentage, 79.8 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) rate.
Moncada in 2019: 28.6 O-Swing percentage, 72.2 contact rate, 10.6 swinging strike percentage, 90 Z-Contact rate.
Key on the massive improvement in Moncada recognizing and being aggressive in the strike zone. This could be a key to not only improve his average against fastballs, but to raise his batting average on the season. This would enhance his overall value in fantasy along with his counting statistics.
Shifting to Statcast, Moncada’s 2019 sample hints at potential improvement. Not only in regards to his discipline, but remembering his generating more fly balls in the spring, it’s carried over so far with an increase in his launch angles and average exit velocities:
Since Yoán Moncada will continue to be a work in progress this year, he made for the perfect first player to highlight. His adjustments could be catching up with his talent. If he’s maintaining these signs of growth, Moncada could be a “buy high” player for many who think regression will be coming for him. This could create a unique chance to get a potential 20 home run and stolen base player at a discount.
Not only can Moncada improve his value in fantasy via batting average, as a switch hitter, any improvement as a right-handed hitter will cement it. Against Cleveland on Monday, during his last at-bat, Moncada roped a double to left field as a right handed batter off of Oliver Pérez with two strikes. (If you own the MLB At-Bat App, it can be seen in the game summary).
There’s no guarantee Moncada can continue to produce hard hit baseballs from both sides of the plate, but, he could. With more optimal launch angles, less swings and misses plus some luck, Moncada could be on the precipice of a breakout. Stay tuned.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
BrooksBaseball.net
MLB.com