Surprise seasons can occur in both real baseball and fantasy. When Brandon Morrow succumbed to injury last year, Pedro Strop not only stepped up for the Cubs, but for fantasy owners as well. Strop won six of his seven decisions with 13 saves, 57 strikeouts, a 2.26 ERA, 3.43 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in 59.2 innings. His strand rate proved generous at just under 84 percent, but Strop limited hitters to a 67.4 contact rate with a swinging strike percentage of 16 percent.

Strop’s flown beneath the radar the last three years with a solid total of 13 wins and 13 saves, 183 strikeouts, a 2.62 ERA, 3.23 FIP and 1.02 WHIP. His strikeouts minus walks percentage of 17.8 goes well with his swinging strike percentage of 16 and a 65.7 contact rate. Trying to predict how many saves he will accrue this year will depend on opportunity and effectiveness.

Using Strop’s data from Statcast, here’s a look at his arsenal in the form of a plot map:

Strop keeps left-handed hitters off balance with the cutter and attacks right-handed batters with the slider. Trying to marry his results from last year to his expected ones will ultimately decide his fate going forward. As a reference point, on xSTATS, Strop’s kwFIP of 4.01 should get one’s attention. Strop did give up a bit higher exit velocity last year, but as his numbers by pitch on Statcast illustrate, more regression could be in the offing:

Since his best strikeout pitch proves to be his slider, working ahead in the count will be necessary. Of course, Strop’s situation gets complicated if Brandon Morrow returns since he’s being paid to be the closer. With so many moving pieces, it will salient to take Strop and Morrow to bracket the bullpen in leagues. Here’s Strop’s projections from three different sites which seem to account for him ceding the role:

Since the ceiling depends on arbitrary factors, Pedro Strop ’s price gets depressed in drafts. He owns a stable skill set and seems to outperform his peripherals. Use his high floor as the baseline if taking him and hope for double digit saves with solid ratios. Anything more would be icing on the investment cake. However, if he does migrate towards his kwFIP, do not be afraid to cut bait.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

Steamerprojections.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski