On the heels of a breakout, Mitch Haniger doubters wanted him to do it over a full season. Last year, Haniger appeared in 157 games with 90 runs, 26 home runs, 93 RBI, eight stolen bases and a .285/.366/.493 slash line. He repeated his isolated power over .200, raised his walk percentage to 10.2 and slightly reduced his strikeout rate. Even with 369 more at-bats compared to 2017, Haniger finished with the exact same home run per fly ball percentage (15.8) as well.

With Seattle turning over its roster, it will need a healthy and competitive Haniger to remain in the periphery of the playoff picture. Also, fantasy owners need to factor in how bad the starting pitching will be in the American League West outside of the top two pitchers in Houston. There could be some wild games all year, especially when the bullpens get stretched thin.

In an effort to discern how Haniger will do in the year ahead, his expected statistics (xSTATS) suggest he’s not a fluke. Haniger’s expected average for the last two years of .281 aligns well with his actual number and his 46.2 expected home runs reside above his 42 in this sample. Increasing his pull percentage and hard-hit rates could translate to a jump to 28 home runs as Haniger enters his power peak. First, from Statcast, here’s a chart of his batted ball data using their factors for hard hit data:

According to Statcast, Haniger recorded 455 batted ball events with 47 barrels (20th in the majors), an average exit velocity of 90.2 MPH and a 12.7-degree launch angle. Given his propensity to pull the ball, much of his power occurred to left-center field:

Despite his stable skill set and potential to add pocket steals to his portfolio, Haniger nearly slips to pick 100 in many NFBC drafts, but in the early 60’s on ESPN and the mid-80’s on Yahoo. Perhaps it’s the default ranks, but Haniger should be able to come close to replicating last year based on his expected numbers. His reflections seem to concur with some regression baked into his average:

Getting a hitter in the top third of the order in a weak division makes perfect sense. Mitch Haniger may not hit .280, but he could come close, even with regression. Without an injury, he could exceed his home runs in the chart above and steal close to 10 bases. With so many profiles speculating on what could happen, it’s nice to see a player like Haniger who seems safe.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski