Although fantasy owners tend to chase the shiny new toy, Willy Adames seems reasonably priced in redraft leagues this year. He surged to a .278/.348/.406 slash in 85 games following his promotion last season with 43 runs, 10 home runs, 34 RBI and six stolen bases. Adames notched an isolated power of .128, almost a carbon copy of his number at Triple-A but he struck out in just under 30 percent of his plate appearances. This will need to be factored in to his outcomes for 2019.

It’s almost perplexing how Adames finished with a 12 percent swinging strike rate but only a 27.6 O-Swing (swings and misses outside the strike zone) resulting in a 74 percent contact rate. Bake in his 52.1 percent ground ball rate and a full repeat of last year will be a reach. Especially given Adames expected regression.

Starting with xSTATS, Adames tallied 7.5 expected home runs with a .242/.316/.353 slash line. His expected on-base average finished below .300 as well. Shifting to Statcast, Adames recorded 196 batted ball events with 13 barrels (6.6 percent), an average exit velocity of 86.5 MPH and an 8.6-degree average launch angle.

But, against fastballs, Adames hit .302 with an expected batting average of .246 against the pitch and an expected slugging of .418 with a launch angle of 12 degrees. If Adames proves less effective versus this pitch in 2019, he will struggle to repeat his average. Plus, Adames hit over .400 against off-speed pitches with a .216 xBA, .397 xSLG and a launch angle of one degree. Here are his zone profiles to illustrate the point:

Over the course of 194 games at Triple-A, Adames slashed .280/.358/.414 with 14 home runs and 14 stolen bases. He could continue to outperform his peripheral statistics, but it’s going to accompany some inherent risk. Due to his price point, Adames could return value, but his average and counting statistics will be the deciding factors. Here are his projections from three different sites. Note the similarity of both THE BAT and ZiPS with Adames expected slash from above:

Ultimately, fantasy owners will need to trust their gut regarding Willy Adames . If he can come close to replicating last year over a full season, he’s a steal. However, if he suffers a sophomore slump as projected by two of the three sites, then Adames will need to record 25 home runs plus stolen bases to buffer the drop in batting average. Act accordingly.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborksi